Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 comes down in Eastern Ukraine

[LHutton]

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/17/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1


(CNN) -- A Malaysia Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur has crashed in eastern Ukraine, Russian news agency Interfax reported Thursday.

[MR2 Fan]

it initially said it was shot down, several other news sites are still reporting that...not good...

[Freude am Fahren]

I wonder if the shot down reports are solely because of the location.

It was at more than 30,000 feet when it lost contact. That requires some real SAM type hardware, not just some shoulder fired missile.

[LHutton]

I wonder if the shot down reports are solely because of the location.

It was at more than 30,000 feet when it lost contact. That requires some real SAM type hardware, not just some shoulder fired missile.
Some unsubstantiated rumours that it was a Buk system but no idea how they derived that conclusion.

It may be similar to the Siberian Airlines Flight 1812 incident.

[LHutton]

60km from border.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741158

Is it normal to fly over war zones?

[Freude am Fahren]

U.S. Airliners have avoided it since April, I believe.

[LHutton]

Well this is an ominous prelude:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28299334


14 July 2014

Ukraine military plane shot down as fighting rages

They say the An-26 plane was hit at an altitude of 6,500m (21,325ft).

The plane was targeted with "a more powerful missile" than a shoulder-carried missile, "probably fired" from Russia. The crew survived, reports say.

[Godson]

Safe to say. Don't fly on Malaysia Airlines

[drew]

Officially putting "FLY MALAYSIAN AIR" on the top of my never-do list.

[LHutton]

Corporate manslaughter?

[Freude am Fahren]

Prevailing theory is that the Russian Separatists/Military shot it down thinking it was another Ukrainian military plane.

So an accident, kinda.

[LHutton]

Prevailing theory is that the Russian Separatists/Military shot it down thinking it was another Ukrainian military plane.

So an accident, kinda.
Completely agree. It's really unlikely that anyone has done this deliberately.

[LHutton]

9 mile wide debris field, no contact with ATC, debris and debris field width indicative of mid-air disintegration.

[Drachen596]

Ive only heard of the Russian Separatists having shoulder fired SAMs like the Strela. They cant hit anything that high.

articles I saw also said the Ukrainian plane was very likely downed by missiles coming from inside the Russian border..

[Jason]

Separatists have had access to anti aircraft systems for a couple weeks now, having overthrown various military stocks, from what I understand.

Basically Ukraine, the separatists, and Russia all had the capability to do this.

The separatists in the last week have reportedly taken down a couple transport airplanes, the theory today from various sources is that they thought they took down another one today, but it turned out to be MH17.

:|

[Drachen596]

i thought Russia had already said they shot down the cargo transports with a fighter jet?

the real issue is going to be that if it was shot down, how do you figure out which group did it.

they all use the same weapons. you'd have to pinpoint exactly where the missile was fired from and even then if from inside the Ukraine how will you know if it was Government or Separatists?

[Yw-slayer]

I'm biased, and I know that it's not been the best year for it, but it's actually generally a very good airline. Generally safe and pleasant, polite and good-looking staff and the food is good (so that's at least 4 things better than any US airline). Some idiot with itchy trigger fingers obviously thought it was a military plane. If we had the ability to, I'd suggest sending in commandos to kill the entire unit and post it on YouTube, but sadly we don't.

Also:

“The usual flight route was earlier declared safe by the International Civil Aviation Organisation. International Air Transportation Association has stated that the airspace the aircraft was traversing was not subject to restrictions,” said MAS.

[KillerB]

Pretty tough to blame this one on Malaysian Air, and we STILL don't know what the hell happened to MH370.

[Yw-slayer]

Need to play some COD tonight to get digital revenge.

[LHutton]

Pretty tough to blame this one on Malaysian Air, and we STILL don't know what the hell happened to MH370.
Is it? Flew through a war zone where planes were getting shot down, got shot down.

Several theories so far:

1)Russians or separatists thought it was a Ukrainian transport plane;

2) Ukrainians shot it down thinking it was a Russian plane coming to shoot down their planes, as allegedly happened recently;

3) Ukrainians shot it down thinking it was the Russian President's IL-96:

http://rt.com/files/news/2a/66/80/00/33.jpg

4) Ukrainians just fucked up as they did with Siberian Airlines Flight 1812 in October 2001;

5) Terrorist attack aimed at Netherlands in revenge for:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28313285

6) Mid-air collision;

7) Structural failure (less likely);


Tin-foil section:
AH1) Looks like MH370 has turned up.

[IMOA]

Is it? Flew through a war zone where planes were getting shot down, got shot down.

There are about 300 flights a day which take the same route and 4 flights which flew that route after MH17 was shot down. It is true that some airlines have redirected their flights around the Ukraine prior to MH17 getting shot down (including the one I do most of my flying on which kinda makes me happy) but they are very much in the minority. Problem is the shoulder launched stuff can't get close to commercial aircraft, you need much more sophisticated and much more expensive weapon systems to do that, unfortunately it appears that the Russians have provided just that to the separatists with enough training to press the launch button but not enough to understand what they are firing at.

[LHutton]

There are about 300 flights a day which take the same route and 4 flights which flew that route after MH17 was shot down. It is true that some airlines have redirected their flights around the Ukraine prior to MH17 getting shot down (including the one I do most of my flying on which kinda makes me happy) but they are very much in the minority. Problem is the shoulder launched stuff can't get close to commercial aircraft, you need much more sophisticated and much more expensive weapon systems to do that, unfortunately it appears that the Russians have provided just that to the separatists with enough training to press the launch button but not enough to understand what they are firing at.
A plane was shot down at 22,000ft only 3 days prior, commonsense would dictate avoiding that area surely.

Let's not be too hasty with the finger pointing either, at least 3 Ukrainian Buk systems were within range at the time ATC lost contact. A SAM also requires several trained people to operate it, it's not really a bee-bee-bee-bee-beeeeeee thing.

[Jason]

Russia and Ukraine both have the capabilities. But neither would make that order, I'd think.

[Jason]

http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000003007434/intercepted-audio-of-ukraine-separatists.html

No way for me (or most) to confirm the validity of this, but...

[Drachen596]

if that audio is authentic and it can be proven those voices belong to separatists and russians....

well i imagine some shits gonna go down on the international front as far as supporting Ukraine and further sanctions on Russia. possibly UN Peace Keeper forces being deployed in the region as well.

[LHutton]

Russia and Ukraine both have the capabilities. But neither would make that order, I'd think.
Unless someone diverted a flight at the last minute and didn't pass it on - another one that's doing the rounds.


http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000003007434/intercepted-audio-of-ukraine-separatists.html

No way for me (or most) to confirm the validity of this, but...
Too scripted. Reading was straight from a script, little pausing, stuttering or signs of being generally under stress or dumbfounded.

[Jason]

Also tidbits from various reports:

- Russia has the "black box"
- Separatists have "most" data recordings
- Separatists are making it difficult for third parties to enter crash zone
- Evidence is becoming highly compromised as they go through wreckage

[Yw-slayer]

A plane was shot down at 22,000ft only 3 days prior, commonsense would dictate avoiding that area surely.

Let's not be too hasty with the finger pointing either, at least 3 Ukrainian Buk systems were within range at the time ATC lost contact. A SAM also requires several trained people to operate it, it's not really a bee-bee-bee-bee-beeeeeee thing.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, isn't it? Especially when they were flying at 33000ft and hence in a zone deemed safe by the iata, amongst others.

You are seriously fucking deluded if you can even begin to consider apportioning any more than even minimal blame to the airline on the facts known at this point.

The guy who made the decision to fire needs to have his whole family raped to death, and eaten, by dogs.

[Jason]

What's one's family have to do with this?

[Yw-slayer]

It's just derived from a Chinese curse, that is, "I hope your whole family dies".

[LHutton]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, isn't it? Especially when they were flying at 33000ft and hence in a zone deemed safe by the iata, amongst others.

You are seriously fucking deluded if you can even begin to consider apportioning any more than even minimal blame to the airline on the facts known at this point.

The guy who made the decision to fire needs to have his whole family raped to death, and eaten, by dogs.
3 days prior is hardly hindsight. Pretty much the first thing many people noted after this incident was that they didn't think civilian air traffic was still even flying over this area. A BBC news report actually specifically referred to the surprise many people had.

I also think you need to get things a little in perspective. Roughly twice as many civilians have been killed in Donetsk as were on that plane, by a combination, or rocket, artillery and air strikes on residential areas. Only recently a block of flats was taken down. So guess what? The fighters on the ground have decided to target aircraft with SAMs where possible (maybe they have Buks, maybe they don't), before they can hit them or resupply ground forces.

Unless you'd also justify tracking down the 1988 crew of the USS Vincennes and raping their families to death before serving the dogs for a virtually identical incident, I'd suggest toning it down.

It's also somewhat ironic that you mention hindsight in relation to something that genuinely could have been foreseen 3 days in advance but don't extend the same excuse to the shooting down of the plane, where it might actually be valid.

Meanwhile Israel has killed as many civilians as were on this plane and injured a thousand-odd more and the media doesn't care because their skin was the wrong colour.

[LHutton]

Also tidbits from various reports:

- Russia has the "black box"
- Separatists have "most" data recordings
- Separatists are making it difficult for third parties to enter crash zone
- Evidence is becoming highly compromised as they go through wreckage
The real culprits could be Ukrainian ATC, if they've deliberately re-directed the flight down the same path used by their An-26s.

[IMOA]

Ah apologists, spreading faux intellectuel superiority since the beginning of the internet.

[LHutton]

Ah apologists, spreading faux intellectuel superiority since the beginning of the internet.
EDIT: I'll allow you it even though it's not officially included in the English dictionary yet, whilst 'faux' is.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/18/ukraine-crisis-airplane-qantas-idUSL4N0PT07020140718




SYDNEY, July 18 (Reuters) - Qantas Airways and several other airlines altered their flight paths some time ago to avoid Ukrainian air space after fighting flared up in the region, raising questions about why others did not do the same.

The issue of whether to avoid flying over conflict zones has come into sharp focus after the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 on Thursday, killing all 298 people on board.

International civil aviation regulators had imposed no restrictions on crossing an area where pro-Russian rebels are fighting Ukrainian forces, and the majority of carriers had continued to use a route popular with long-distance flights from Europe to southeast Asia.

But the fact that a handful of companies decided to circumnavigate the disputed territory underlined inconsistencies in airlines' approach to passenger safety.

Aviation experts said piecemeal and potentially conflicting advice from aviation regulators further confused the situation, and called for clearer guidance on which areas to avoid.

In addition to Qantas, Air Berlin, Asiana Airlines Inc, Korean Air Lines Co Ltd and Taiwan's China Airlines decided to avoid Ukrainian airspace several months ago.

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd changed its routes some time ago, but did not specify when, and a source familiar with the situation said British Airways had also been avoiding the area where the flight went down.

"Although the detour adds to flight time and cost, we have been making the detour for safety," said a spokeswoman for Asiana, which has been diverting its once-weekly cargo flight some 150 km (93 miles) below Ukrainian airspace since March 3.





NO UNDUE RISK

Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai said on Friday the national airline took no undue risk in flying over Ukraine, a route he stressed was approved by the ICAO and widely used by other airlines.



Some independent experts did not agree.

Geoff Dell, an accident investigation and safety specialist at CQUniversity in Australia, said airlines had their own intelligence operations which should be making decisions in such situations.

"It's blatantly obvious they shouldn't have been anywhere near it," Dell, who was working as a senior safety manager for Qantas during the first Gulf War, said of Flight MH17.

"Any sort of unrest breaks out, civil wars or such, you change your flight path so that you don't have to go anywhere near it. Of course it comes at a cost, because you have to fly further."


"The safety authorities themselves have much to answer for," said Chris Yates, of London-based aviation consulting firm Yates Consulting.

So it's fairly clear. All the cheap-ass airlines saved fuel by flying through SAM alley.

[Yw-slayer]

Unless you'd also justify tracking down the 1988 crew of the USS Vincennes and raping their families to death before serving the dogs for a virtually identical incident, I'd suggest toning it down.

Go fuck yourself. I'll say whatever the fuck I want. I don't give a shit what you think. You really think I'm going to "tone it down" because some armchair expert like you is going to tell me to do so? I'm this close to hoping that your family gets the same treatment.


It's also somewhat ironic that you mention hindsight in relation to something that genuinely could have been foreseen 3 days in advance but don't extend the same excuse to the shooting down of the plane, where it might actually be valid.

You can't even fucking troll properly.


So it's fairly clear. All the cheap-ass airlines saved fuel by flying through SAM alley.

From http://www.singaporeair.com/jsp/cms/en_UK/press_release_news/140718-airspace.jsp


Singapore Airlines said in a statement that it had been using Ukrainian airspace but had "re-routed all our flights" to alternative corridors away from the region... European and US airlines re-routed their flights as Kiev said flight MH17 was shot down in a "terrorist" attack and a US official said intelligence analysts "strongly believe" it was downed by a surface-to-air missile.... Gerry Soejatman, a consultant with the Jakarta-based Whitesky Aviation chartered flight provider, said airlines that flew over conflict zones were not necessarily negligent.
"Every airline does its own risk assessment," Soejatman said, adding that flying above 30,000 feet was generally considered secure given the level of training and sophisticated weaponry required to shoot down a plane at that height.
"Ten years ago you'd be an idiot to fly over Iraq below 15,000 feet, but over 30,000 feet was very safe, so it's about the level of risk.... from: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10975344/Asian-airlines-stopped-flying-over-Ukraine-months-ago.html


German airline Lufthansa, The British Virgin Atlantic airline, Dutch carrier KLM, Italy’s Alitalia and Air France have all announced they’ll be making a detour around Eastern Ukraine From http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/what-airlines-were-already-avoiding-eastern-ukraine-1.1918587, implying that they didn't avoid it earlier.


A Singapore Airlines flight was within 25 kilometres of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 when it lost contact with air traffic controllers and crashed near the Russian border with Ukraine, according to a website that tracks global aircraft in real time.

According to flightradar24.com, Singapore Airlines SQ351, a Boeing 777, and Air India AI113, a Boeing 787, were about within 15 miles (25 kilometres) of MH17 when the Boeing 777 disappeared and crashed after presumably being shot down. from http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/malaysia-airlines-mh17-crash-singapore-airlines-plane-sq351-was-abou - the main Singaporean goverment controlled newspaper

Yes, Singapore Airlines is a REALLY CHEAP-ASS AIRLINE. All of these are CHEAP-ASS AIRLINES.

With an attitude like yours, it's hard for me to think that you're anything other than an ignorant racist cunt.

Even if you're not, you are - at the very least - a despicable excuse for a human being. Innocent people have died, and others are pissed off and in mourning, and all you can do is pull a Nelson and go "You guys are idiots, I told you so, ha ha"?

[LHutton]

Moral high ground? Go fuck yourself.
Said the rest of the world to the US and UK governments.

[Crazed_Insanity]

We don't really know what happened yet, don't think we need to rush the curse at this point. :p

It'll suck if after months and years of investigating and we end up unable to prove what really happened to it.

Either Malaysian air is super unlucky or something is up.

[Yw-slayer]

Said the rest of the world to the US and UK governments.

What does this have to do with anything?

I'd "suggest" that you shut the fuck up or else you might find karma coming to bit you in the ass one day.


Meanwhile Israel has killed as many civilians as were on this plane and injured a thousand-odd more and the media doesn't care because their skin was the wrong colour.

I'm as pissed off about Gaza as most people, but I can't even believe you're trying to bring this up. You are really pathetic.

Then again, that's obvious from the mere fact that you had to stoop to the level of criticising someone for misspelling "intellectual".

[LHutton]

What does this have to do with anything?

I'd "suggest" that you shut the fuck up or else you might find karma coming to bit you in the ass one day.

I'm as pissed off about Gaza as most people, but I can't even believe you're trying to bring this up. You are really pathetic.
It's just the coverage that one gets and the response to it. I don't hear anyone telling Israel or Kiev's forces that there'll be hell to pay for killing hundreds of civilians, or suggesting that the Israeli government (plus families) needs to be raped to death and fed to dogs. My point was actually directed at the media though. If karma does come to bite me, at least I wasn't the one talking about raping families to death and supplementing canine diets with the remnants.

[Yw-slayer]

I bet you're a riot at parties and extremely popular at your local.

[LHutton]

Go fuck yourself. I'll say whatever the fuck I want. I don't give a shit what you think. You really think I'm going to "tone it down" because some armchair expert like you is going to tell me to do so? I'm this close to hoping that your family gets the same treatment.



You can't even fucking troll properly.



From http://www.singaporeair.com/jsp/cms/en_UK/press_release_news/140718-airspace.jsp

from: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10975344/Asian-airlines-stopped-flying-over-Ukraine-months-ago.html

From http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/what-airlines-were-already-avoiding-eastern-ukraine-1.1918587, implying that they didn't avoid it earlier.

from http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/malaysia-airlines-mh17-crash-singapore-airlines-plane-sq351-was-abou - the main Singaporean goverment controlled newspaper
Yes it's amazing just how many dummies there were in this instance.



Yes, Singapore Airlines is a REALLY CHEAP-ASS AIRLINE. All of these are CHEAP-ASS AIRLINES.

With an attitude like yours, it's hard for me to think that you're anything other than an ignorant racist cunt.
Oh yes, I'm the racist cunt who's putting Western European life at 10 times the value of Russian (+Eastern Ukrainian) and Palestinian life and Middle-Eastern life in general..... not Western media



Even if you're not, you are - at the very least - a despicable excuse for a human being. Innocent people have died, and others are pissed off and in mourning, and all you can do is pull a Nelson and go "You guys are idiots, I told you so, ha ha"?
No dude. I'm not calling the victims idiots, I'm calling the airlines idiots for deliberately endangering the passengers to save a few pennies. A criticism which can be extended to the regulatory bodies that allowed it.

[Yw-slayer]

I'm not going to waste any more of my time or energy on you. You are a truly disgusting, and a poor excuse for, a human being.

[LHutton]

You are a truly disgusting, and a poor excuse for, a human being.
I'll take that as a compliment, it's the worst fucking species on the planet.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Gee, what the fuck is up with you guys? Chill out dudes.

[FaultyMario]

Russ, I think you should give it an extra thought about the requests to ban LHutton/Z07. I know you're not comfortable with suppressing opinion, or doing a Kenji, whatever; In my opinion [he] adds nothing to the forum. He's here just to (quote) push buttons (unquote), and he's clearly the only one having a laugh out of that.

Do a court ruling here, it's his right to fun against our collective right to civility.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Personally, I think it's YW who's over reacting a bit.

People have their own opinions. They can be disagreeable... and I think YW is just having an off day... or perhaps they had some unresolved issues going way back like Rob had with me?

Anyway, we'll never like everybody and we'll never get everybody to like us, but why can't people just get along at least? If you guys really think he's purposely pushing your buttons... is the only way to stop it really by banning? Couldn't you also try to 'disconnect' that button so that when pushed, you won't drastically react to that? Ignore feature should help with doing the disconnecting IMHO.

This forum had been splitting for a long time... or people pissed off because of this or that either thru banning or just decided to fuck this place... I honestly don't get why people continue to believe that one day it is possible to have a forum that is so peaceful and enjoyable that you won't ever read any disagreeable comments.

Anyway, my 2 cents.

[The359]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/18/us-ukraine-crisis-flightplan-idUSKBN0FN1HR20140718

Malaysia Airlines requested a flight path of 35,000ft, Ukrainian Air Control requested they descend to 33,000ft. I don't have a specific source at the moment, but my understanding was that 32,000ft was the ceiling of the restricted zone.

EDIT: Here we go: http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/mh17-disaster-flights-over-war-zones-because-its-cheaper-20140718-zua0y.html

[FaultyMario]

Missile strike from eastern Ukraine killed about 100 flying to International AIDS Conference. (http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/07/aids_researchers_on_mh17_missile_strike_killed_sci entists_and_advocates.html)

[The359]

Australian woman who lost brother and sister-in-law in MH370, loses step-daughter in MH17 (http://nypost.com/2014/07/18/woman-loses-relatives-in-both-malaysia-airlines-tragedies/)

[thesameguy]

Ukrainian Air Control requested they descend to 33,000ft. I don't have a specific source at the moment, but my understanding was that 32,000ft was the ceiling of the restricted zone.

One, I am fascinated by the idea that a specific altitude can be called safe in a war zone. Two, baffled that in a war zone there is a body such as air control that be trusted. Three, surprised that given both of those are true, that UAC would suggest flying lower. Four, maybe they had to, because maybe all the other air traffic had already been pushed higher because they were scared to fly lower. Five, I cannot believe that the pilot or airline running a giant airplane full of people would believe that a 4% difference in altitude changes "war zone" into "trouble free flying." WTF?

[Crazed_Insanity]

I'm hoping somebody stole the other plane in order to create the wreckage of this incident... and the dead bodies were all just bunch of casualties of war collected else where...

And can anybody confirm this is true?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/MH%2017%20flight%20paths.png

[LHutton]

Probably was a missile anyway (fragmentation warhead).

http://bobik-57.livejournal.com/1335504.html

[The359]

Since the war had mostly been on the ground, and surface to air missles have limited altitude ranges, its understandable that high altitude flights could have theoretically continued. All the previous military shoot downs in the are were around 20-25,000ft, and the only missle system in the Russian and Ukrainian military capable of hitting up to 30,000ft is this Buk. Granted, this doesnt account for fighter jets, but thay doesnt seem to be the case here.

[LHutton]

Since the war had mostly been on the ground, and surface to air missles have limited altitude ranges, its understandable that high altitude flights could have theoretically continued. All the previous military shoot downs in the are were around 20-25,000ft, and the only missle system in the Russian and Ukrainian military capable of hitting up to 30,000ft is this Buk. Granted, this doesnt account for fighter jets, but thay doesnt seem to be the case here.
Not entirely accurate. The SA-8 Gecko, SA-11 Gadfly (Buk), SA-3 Neva/Pechova, SA-5 Gammon, SA-6 Gainfall, SA-10 Grumble (S-300), SA-21 Growler (S-400), S-350, S-500.

You wouldn't believe how far these things can get a plane/satellite at.

[MR2 Fan]

I'm hoping somebody stole the other plane in order to create the wreckage of this incident... and the dead bodies were all just bunch of casualties of war collected else where...

And can anybody confirm this is true?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/MH%2017%20flight%20paths.png

I read one post on another message board that they diverted their course due to bad weather, but no source for that info.

[samoht]

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741164

Russian news site report from yesterday that rebels shot down an An-26. I think it makes it fairly clear that the rebels shot it down by mistake, believing it to be a Ukrainian An-26, like the one they recently shot down. Since it's a Russian site they have no incentive to lie to make the rebels look bad. And since the rebels shot down a plane, and MH17 is the only plane that has been shot down, there's no other plausible explanation.

[samoht]

I read one post on another message board that they diverted their course due to bad weather, but no source for that info.

Thunderstorms would be expected over central Europe in July, it's been swelteringly hot and thundery here in London, and similar on the continent I think.

[LHutton]

Diverted and told to lower altitude by Ukrainian ATC.

[LHutton]

http://www.tfi.cn/t104950-1-1.htm

[Yw-slayer]

http://m.bbc.com/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-28364306

"According to Flight radar24, which monitors live flight paths, the airlines that most frequently flew over Donetsk in eastern Ukraine in the last week were: Aeroflot 86 (flights), Singapore Airlines 75, Ukraine International Airlines 62, Lufthansa 56, and Malaysian 48. It was not necessarily a risky approach. The chance of a rocket reaching above 32,000 feet was considered remote, says Sylvia Spruck Wrigley, author of Why Planes Crash."

[thesameguy]

Yeah, "was." People build rocket-powered cars in their garage these days. I think as a civilization we are way past the point of making assumptions about who has access to what tech.

[The359]

Its not even just having a rocket, its that it had to be a radar tracking rocket to be able to hit a target like that.

[Drachen596]

i'm under the impression that the US Government and FAA told the the US based airlines they weren't allowed to fly over that region until the conflict was resolved.

[thesameguy]

Its not even just having a rocket, its that it had to be a radar tracking rocket to be able to hit a target like that.

My point is not about rockets, but rather people building crazy shit out of spare parts in their houses.

Ruling out the possibility that people in a military conflict have access to modern military hardware seems foolhardy. The glaring example being a damned 777 that just got shot down from 32,000'.

[The359]

Well that does seem to be one theory, that it was a Buk that rebels got their hands on but didnt know how to operate properly.

[IMOA]

One, I am fascinated by the idea that a specific altitude can be called safe in a war zone. Two, baffled that in a war zone there is a body such as air control that be trusted. Three, surprised that given both of those are true, that UAC would suggest flying lower. Four, maybe they had to, because maybe all the other air traffic had already been pushed higher because they were scared to fly lower. Five, I cannot believe that the pilot or airline running a giant airplane full of people would believe that a 4% difference in altitude changes "war zone" into "trouble free flying." WTF?

It's risk management. It's far easier for a person standing a mile from the end of a runway with a shoulder fired weapon to hit an aircraft taking off or landing than it is to take down an aircraft cruising above 30,000 feet, even if that is above a war zone. There's a number of cut-off points but at around 20,000ft it starts to get seriously difficult to take an aircraft down, add in a big margin for safety (and the fact that commercial jets almost always fly above 30,000ft) and it makes sense. Fwiw I've flown over Iraq and Afghanistan many many times over the last 10 years, if you want to get from this end of the world to europe you invariably fly over a war zone in some shape or form.

The thing that has changed is in the past the sorts of weapon systems which could reach those heights were only in the hands of a national military but in the Ukraine they have been handed out.

[thesameguy]

It's risk management.

The thing that has changed is in the past the sorts of weapon systems which could reach those heights were only in the hands of a national military but in the Ukraine they have been handed out.

Oh, I get it, for sure. But the situation we're discussing right now is either "there is no currently known way much less any known reason fighters in Ukraine are going to shoot down a plane at 30,000+'," or "it is unlikely fighters in Ukraine are going to shoot down a plane at 30,000+'"

If military hardware wasn't there and planes hadn't been previously shot down, we'd be in scenario #1 and there'd be shock and horror. But it seems like there was available knowledge that military hardware was there and planes had been shot down and so we're in scenario #2. Malaysia Airlines screwed the pooch. Whether the situation wasn't fully rationalized, the odds improperly calculated, or it was just a one in a million shot and they gambled and lost seems moot. They took a risk with a big plane and a lot of people and things didn't go their way.

Personally, I think they took a seriously ill-advised risk - especially in light of recent events. They should have been walking on eggshells rather than betting lightning wouldn't strike twice - I'm sure Murphy would have a lot to say about that. So, to that end, I've got a lot more anger than shock.

[Yw-slayer]

I don't think that's entirely fair. Again, things are always clearer with hindsight, although like you, I am more angry than shocked. In fact, I'm seriously fucking angry.

There's a great Ft article about how it's almost certainly the militia (and how the missile system will soon be destroyed by those cowards to cover it up) but as it's behind a paywall I don't think it would be right for me to share the contents.

[Drachen596]

Ukraine is saying Russia gave the missile systems to the, as they are calling them, terrorists aka Pro Russia Separatists. they've been saying Russia is supplying weaponry of all sorts to the Separatists for a while now in violation of their agreement not to.

[thesameguy]

I dunno man... if a plane got blown up over Nebraska, it'd be 100% ZOMG! But a plane got blown up over a country engaged in war where other planes had been blown up just days before. I understand the variables - I understand the plane was probably diverted, I understand that the hardware necessary to accomplish the task is special, and I understand that it seems unlikely a passenger plane would be a target. But I also understand that people engaged in conflict aren't always the most rational thinkers much less the most rational doers, and like I said, I have 100% confidence that technology of all types in 2014 is ubiquitous and highly effective. Sure, you can fly a plane high over a warzone, but the question is should you. With what I believe to be true rolling around in my head and someone on the radio saying, "Hey, take it down a few thousand feet" my answer would be fuck no.

[IMOA]

The weapons which shot the previous aircraft down weren't capable of shooting down MH17 and I'm quite uncomfortable with singling out malaysian airlines when there have been thousands of flights in the last couple of weeks by other airlines through exactly the same corridor (and tens of thousands over other war zones which have had aircraft shot down at low altitudes). Personally I find it quite distasteful that people are trying to deflect blame from those who actually shot MH17 down and those who provided the weapon systems to the victims of this crime who were doing something which was considered to be a reasonable risk.

In about 4 weeks time I'll be taking a flight which will fly over a number of war zones, these are war zones which have had aircraft shot down at lower altitudes. I do that knowing that the most dangerous part of the flight is still the drive to the airport and the hope that if the worst does happen that people will put the blame more on those that did the shooting, not those that were shot.

[thesameguy]

Personally I find it quite distasteful that people are trying to deflect blame from those who actually shot MH17 down and those who provided the weapon systems to the victims of this crime who were doing something which was considered to be a reasonable risk.

Well, a reasonable risk is still a risk. But regardless, I think it's safe to say there is PLENTY of blame to go around. Plenty.


In about 4 weeks time I'll be taking a flight which will fly over a number of war zones, these are war zones which have had aircraft shot down at lower altitudes. I do that knowing that the most dangerous part of the flight is still the drive to the airport and the hope that if the worst does happen that people will put the blame more on those that did the shooting, not those that were shot.

Totally fair and certainly totally accurate.

[LHutton]

The European governments haven't been towing the line with respect to the stricter sanctions the US wanted to impose due to economic issues but I guess this will change that.

http://bobik-57.livejournal.com/1335504.html


Here are the first signs of warheads. Not knocked "Buk-M1"

"In missiles, designed to engage aerial targets, use a special, characteristic only for them warhead. It is a sort of tapered beam rods welded together sometimes, sometimes not. During installed beam rods installed lifting charge - this is" fragmentation rod warhead. "At the peak of approach to the target warhead made ​​in undermining lifting charge, and this beam rods almost cosmic speed rushes to the goal. If you get such a rod on the kinetics alone can penetrate through the plane almost any plane while destroying the internal structure of the aircraft, carrying pieces avionics. Kinetics rod is such that he can beat the first half * even titanium spar. For such a warhead has another advantage - the rocket did not require absolute accuracy - it undermines the purpose of pre-exposure and fly rods in the direction of the cone of the aircraft. Even if directly hit the target 2-3% of these rods, doomed plane: worth making a flying speed of the aircraft at transonic hole in the wing or fuselage, just to break the casing, so monstrous oncoming airflow damaged wing collapse until the spar less than a minute. If such holes is formed with a dozen - there is nothing at all will catch. But that's not the point. fragmentation warhead stem mainly used in rockets to-air thanks to the compactness. In defense prefer to use OF CU (high-explosive), because in some cases it is more efficient way fragmentation rod. In the photograph we see the damage skin, characteristic for fragmentation warhead core , high-explosive look different. This means that no Beech this plane did not knock . We are dealing with a hit or R-27 Axe, or P-73 , which have kaklisch is and which can be equipped with MiG-29 and Su-27. " ................ ........... Photo RIA disappeared from Google photo finds But there were at Dill. tactics and throw quickly erase RIA used in March, at the height of the Crimean events. This is something there.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bobik_57/26995045/1162038/1162038_original.jpg

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bobik_57/26995045/1162258/1162258_original.jpg

[The359]

Who in 2014 still uses a LiveJournal? No, seriously, who is this supposed to be.

[LHutton]

Who in 2014 still uses a LiveJournal? No, seriously, who is this supposed to be.
There's a site called keypubs, which is ran by the publishers of leading aviation magazines (e.g. AIR international etc.). There are some very good inside sources on that site for everything aviation and this came from there. Of course, take everything with a pinch of salt. There's another one called militaryphotos which is used by war journalists.


Anyway, talk about bad luck.

http://news.yahoo.com/woman-loses-relatives-2-malaysia-air-disasters-102012283.html


Woman loses relatives in 2 Malaysia air disasters

[Yw-slayer]

http://news.yahoo.com/rebel-leader-gives-bizarre-account-plane-crash-182256709.html

Maybe he should say that in KL and see how long he lasts.

[Drachen596]

some random russian/ukrainian?

basic idea they're claiming is that the damage shown in the photos is from an air to air missile and not a surface to air. something about a difference in what the warheads use for fragmentation purposes. so they're trying to say it was shot down by a fighter plane rather than a SAM.


Edit- It wouldn't surprise me there would be medications and probably blood serum on the plane. weren't there 100 or more AIDS workers on the plane going to some conference?

[LHutton]

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/ukraine-traffic-controllers-instructed-mh17-to-fly-lower-mas-says



In a statement here, MAS explained that MH17 had initially filed a flight plan requesting to fly at 35,000 feet above Ukrainian territory, which it described as close to the “optimum altitude”.

“However, an aircraft’s altitude in flight is determined by air traffic control on the ground.

“Upon entering Ukrainian airspace, MH17 was instructed by Ukrainian air traffic control to fly at 33,000 feet,” the national carrier said.

The decision by MH17’s pilots to skim closely to the prohibited air zone — which is 32,000 feet, according to Europe’s aviation authority Eurocontrol — has prompted numerous questions whether this may have contributed to what is believed to be a case of mistaken identity.

[Drachen596]

what was their altitude when they entered the airspace to begin with?

flight plans are not always flown to the letter. changes in altitude and course can be made because of storms or for passenger planes any turbulence they think they can avoid by changing altitudes.

[LHutton]

what was their altitude when they entered the airspace to begin with?

flight plans are not always flown to the letter. changes in altitude and course can be made because of storms or for passenger planes any turbulence they think they can avoid by changing altitudes.
True but flying as low as legally possible over that kind of area is bad sense at best.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-28360784


09:48: Flight MH17 was flying at the "lowest possible altitude it was legally allowed to fly at", says UK travel expert Simon Calder.

I can appreciate that planes often fly over war zones like Afghanistan or ones in Africa, where at very worst, a MANPADS effective to <15,000ft is the worst they'll face.

However, this is an Eastern European war zone we're talking about. The Ukrainians were worried that a Russian fighter had shot down their fighter a day or two prior and that a Russian/Rebel SAM had shot down a transport plane 3 days prior. Separatists were worried about getting bombed and had possibly seized Ukrainian SAM hardware. Russians were concerned about civilian deaths in Eastern Europe and even civilians on their side of the border had been killed by stray shells. This was a place with SA-3s, SA-5s and S-300s on two sides, S-400s on one side and Buks (SA-11s) possibly on all three sides AND three pissed off, nervous and anxious protagonists. Many airlines had the foresight to notice all this and avoid the area and in hindsight it sure is tricky to think why anyone would fly an airliner over this place.

[Drachen596]

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17/history/20140717/1000Z/EHAM/WMKK/tracklog

they were at 31,000 until they moved to 33,000. climb initiated and finished at 33,000 while over Poland according to those lat/long numbers.

by the way, that Maylay Online article contradicts itself. it says the pilots wanted 35,000, were told 33,000 and then blames the pilots for skimming so close to the 32,000 minimum altitude.

[LHutton]

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17/history/20140717/1000Z/EHAM/WMKK/tracklog

they were at 31,000 until they moved to 33,000. climb initiated and finished at 33,000 while over Poland according to those lat/long numbers.

by the way, that Maylay Online article contradicts itself. it says the pilots wanted 35,000, were told 33,000 and then blames the pilots for skimming so close to the 32,000 minimum altitude.
True. The statement appears to be misfounded:p. Looks like they wanted to use the word 'skim' but couldn't apply that wrt the ATC.

[Yw-slayer]

The Malay Mail is a tabloid.

[LHutton]

The Malay Mail is a tabloid.
Malaily Mail?

It's confirmed elsewhere:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-28360784


13:46: Malaysia Airlines says in a statement that "at all times, MH17 was in airspace approved by the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization)". MH17 filed a flight plan requesting to fly at 35,000ft through Ukrainian airspace, but was instructed by Ukrainian air traffic control to fly at 33,000ft, the statement adds.

Too small for 70kg HE? Begs the question, HTF does anyone know it was a Buk yet anyway? Seems to just be some crap injection that the media plugged in their straight away.


http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i245/lukos_/Hole_zps28e013a4.png (http://s74.photobucket.com/user/lukos_/media/Hole_zps28e013a4.png.html)

[LHutton]

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/07/russian-transport-of-buk-that-shot-down.html

Okay, this looks compelling it the time-stamping is legitimate, bearing in mind that an An-26 was also shot down. Location legitimate?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4HJmev5xg0

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ws3p6h9DP2Q/U8j_VWtTxUI/AAAAAAAATCk/49EfGWQW1Mc/s1600/MH17+13.jpg

[LHutton]

Response to the above - seems like it was Ukrainian PR bullshit:


The video has been shot at Krasnoarmeysk (Красноармейск). The billboard is an advertising of car dealer located at Krasnoarmeysk, Dnepropetrovskaya str. 34. (Красноармейск Днепропетровская, 34).

The town is controlled by Ukrainian army.

[LHutton]

MH17 was directed 300 miles North on a course that bisected the line between Donetsk and Lugansk.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10975524/Crashed-MH17-flight-was-300-miles-off-typical-course.html

http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/53c96d716da8115439e03a3f-1200-600/map-malaysia-airlines-flight-path-ukraine-3.jpg

[LHutton]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/07/22/world/europe/jet-wreckage-bears-signs-of-impact-by-supersonic-missile-analysis-shows.html?smid=tw-share&_r=2&referrer=


A piece of wreckage from the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200 that was shot down in eastern Ukraine last week bears telltale marks of small pieces of high-velocity shrapnel that apparently crippled the jet in flight. Riddled with these perforations and buffeted by a blast wave as it flew high above the conflict zone, the plane then most likely sheared apart.

http://static01.nyt.com/images/2014/07/22/world/MISSILE01/MISSILE01-articleLarge.jpg

[LHutton]

Proof that plane hit by Junta


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdqIDYnSNq8