Stock Market Stuff

[MR2 Fan]

Anyone doing investing lately?

I'm thinking of getting back into it, just for some penny stocks I've been watching, about to jump in on one or two of them.

[Sad, little man]

Is it gonna be like Wolf of Wall Street? Because if it's gonna be like Wolf of Wall Street, then I want in.

(Seriously though... PM me if it is.)

[Crazed_Insanity]

Down time is a great time to get in, but only with money you don't really need at the moment though. Nobody really knows what the future holds. You just might lose your money, but considering market trend for the past decades, odds are in our favor if we're in it for the long haul with reputable companies. Personally, I think the perfect time to get in is when everyone else is scared shitless. At the moment, I think # of scared people is probably a bit more than half..., but not at a level that'd cause a big crash yet. But who knows, maybe a big crash is coming soon? If so, then that'd be a great time to go 'all in' with your extra cash! ;)

BTW, don't waste your money on penny stocks. They're only worth that much for good reasons..., might as well just buy lotto tickets or visit a casino with your money.

[MR2 Fan]

Down time is a great time to get in, but only with money you don't really need at the moment though. Nobody really knows what the future holds. You just might lose your money, but considering market trend for the past decades, odds are in our favor if we're in it for the long haul with reputable companies. Personally, I think the perfect time to get in is when everyone else is scared shitless. At the moment, I think # of scared people is probably a bit more than half..., but not at a level that'd cause a big crash yet. But who knows, maybe a big crash is coming soon? If so, then that'd be a great time to go 'all in' with your extra cash! ;)

BTW, don't waste your money on penny stocks. They're only worth that much for good reasons..., might as well just buy lotto tickets or visit a casino with your money.

Thanks Billi, I wasn't looking for useless advice.

Edit: I've made lots of money on penny stocks before, I don't go blindly.

[thesameguy]

How much are we talking here - both on the investment and the return side? Penny stocks halve as often as they double, so unless you've got secret sauce you'll probably be subject to the some broad guidelines for investing as anyone would... would you not?

[MR2 Fan]

Sure, but I wasn't asking for advice about stocks, I was just asking if anyone else has been involved lately.

[Sad, little man]

I'm probably going to jump back into it soon. It seems to be much easier to time when to buy rather than when to sell. The danger is trying to play it too safe. If you wait out the current panic, you are likely to miss out on some good returns. I timed it really well in 2011, unfortunately I just didn't have a lot to put in then. But, what money I did, I was dumping into the market as everyone was panicking over Greece and such during the summer.

Without any clear reason for the current drop, I say it should be time to get back in very soon. Probably by the end of the month. Stuff just got overvalued. It was clear it would come crashing down soon. I don't think it will be held down for long though.

[sandydandy]

I've made lots of money on penny stocks before, I don't go blindly. I got burned on LLEG a few years ago. $1000. Bought 200,000 shares @ 0.005...now it's 'trading' at 0.0001. :mad: I haven't touched penny stocks since then.

I'm getting ready to get back into currency trading. Haven't done it in a year. It was messing up my sleep schedule, but I was doing alright. Found a better broker and am ready to fund my account.

[Fogelhund]

I've been involved for a while.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Slm, although there aren't any clear reasons at home, the rest of the world is slowing down. There are always reasons, rational or irrational. I wouldn't make any predictions as to when the market will go back up or keep going down. For us small players, doing 401k or IRA index fund probably would be a safer bet. Just keep on buying the same amount over time... Plus, it saves you in taxes too.

Mr2man, I am involved. I also do own some stocks, but my portfolio does kinda look like Dow or SP500. Didn't mean to offer u unwanted advice. Sorry.

[Jason]

All I know is my 401k has tanked the last couple of weeks*..... THANKS OBAMA

(but is still up some crazy percentage, total)

[Fogelhund]

I am a broker/investment advisor. This market correction is just that, nothing to do with the North American economy.

I bought CPG-T for clients in the high $33 range on Wednesday.

[thesameguy]

All I know is my 401k has tanked the last couple of weeks*..... THANKS OBAMA

(but is still up some crazy percentage, total)

I'm feeling generally good about my 401k. It's hard to abstract yourself from the moment and realize that by its nature it's a long play. Not my forte, but it's the only way to sleep at night. ;)

I keep thinking about other investments as I'm sitting on a reasonably large pile of cash that's doing absolutely nothing. Well, I'm raking in those .02% interest rates, I guess. I would like to stuff that cash into something more worthwhile, but I have a full-time job and I don't need another. I've been strongly considering mutual funds or something along those lines... if my cash savings performed like my 401k, I think I'd be okay with that.

[Crazed_Insanity]

How large is the pile of cash? If it's enough to buy real estate, then I'd have it generate rental income that's what I'd do. My 'extra cash pile' or 'emergency fund' isn't really that big... so I just end up buying some large company stocks that pay dividends. For sure those dividends alone are generating more than the 0.02% interest for me. I'm ignoring the fluctuation of the stock value itself..., hopefully over the longhaul, these companies will continue to grow rather than fold.

Safest and easiest bet is probably to buy into some sort of index/mutual fund over a period of time to minimize your risks...

Anyway, IMHO, it's just wrong to let a pile of cash just sit there collecting .02%, but I suppose that's doing better than sitting under your mattress! :p

[thesameguy]

We have talked extensively about real estate, but coming from the background I have it makes me really nervous not to have a pretty substantial pillow. Although paper investments aren't liquid, it's usually pretty painless to get cash out, and more often than not keeping your shirt. If I found myself in a situation where I needed cash and the only way to get it was sell off real estate, that could hurt. Plus, there is upkeep in real estate and that can be a drain on the monthlies, not to mention an unoccupied rental or an eviction scenario. It kills me too, because I see how well the folks around me are doing with flips/rentals/etc., but they don't have the cashflow limitations I do. ;) One guy has 142 properties at the moment. Sheesh!

That said, right now more than ever we're having these discussions. I haven't mentioned it, but the girl's mom lost her job (they were acquired and shut down) so she is living on borrowed time - actually living out the exact scenario that keeps me up at night, why I keep cash around. Anyway, if she'd move up here we'd buy a house for her to occupy. I just can't afford to buy decent real estate in SoCal, and frankly don't trust that she'd take care of it. I'd need her closer to keep an eye on it. :|

I don't have anything approaching the spare time to do daytrading and I don't feel like I could reliably make informed decisions about other investments. An adviser/broker type is always an option, but I feel like I could approximate those results with some sort of fund (mutual, ETF, index, whatever) with a fair amount less stress. Plus, I've had some decent exposure to a few via my 401k, so I'd at least have a place to start.

Having been a penny stock owner (my Summer o' $17m) they are WAY too volatile for me. Great way to play with a few hundred bucks, maybe, but no way I'd be throwing thousands or tens of thousands into them... they'd just never offer a good value proposition.

[21Kid]

I'm feeling generally good about my 401k. It's hard to abstract yourself from the moment and realize that by its nature it's a long play. Not my forte, but it's the only way to sleep at night. ;)

I keep thinking about other investments as I'm sitting on a reasonably large pile of cash that's doing absolutely nothing. Well, I'm raking in those .02% interest rates, I guess. I would like to stuff that cash into something more worthwhile, but I have a full-time job and I don't need another. I've been strongly considering mutual funds or something along those lines... if my cash savings performed like my 401k, I think I'd be okay with that.

You could get a Roth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_401(k)_and_IRA_accounts) IRA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roth_IRA).

[thesameguy]

Yeah, but there are penalties involved in withdrawals. Last thing you need in an emergency is the government taking some of your slush fund. ;)

[21Kid]

Well, you could just keep collecting the 0.02 APY. :assclown:

[thesameguy]

I am. :D

I could get upset about terrible savings account interest rates, but OTOH I have credit cards with single-digit interest rates and a house at 3%. Can't have it both ways. ;)

[21Kid]

WANT IT ALL!!! :hard:

[Crazed_Insanity]

Realistically speaking, I think current rate of inflation is greater than 0.02%, so you're money is shrinking in value.

I can understand the headaches involve with managing a rental property, short of a major natural disaster, I still think it's probably one of the safest investments we can make. Monthly rent/real estate value can only rise over the years and usually less volatile compared to stock market. With stocks, you're counting on people in that company able to continue to do stuffs to grow your stock, but with real estate, unless people stop having kids, population will continue to grow... needing more and more places to live. You can not maintain your house and just let it rot and decades later your land can still be worth a lot of money by the natural progression of things. Limited amount of land vs continual population growth...

Anyway, too bad about your gf's mom. Hope things can turn around for her.

[neanderthal]

You should think about a couple of CDs. Don't chuck all your monies in them, so you're somewhat liquid, but at least you should be earning more than 0.02% on the part that IS invested.
Take 50% of your cash, allocate it to various length CDs. You've got 50% in the bank, ready when you need it, and the other is easily converted back to cash after a prepayment penalty, if the case needs it.

[MR2 Fan]

bumping thread...

I pulled out of that penny stock a long time ago, nothing happened with it...it's still floundering in the same place it was before.

Anyway, a co-worker started telling me about FOREX trading (currency exchange) and I feel like trying to get into it...things move much faster than stocks, so it is more of a day-trading deal but I figured I'd throw a bit at it and see what happens.

There's plenty of easy to use practice sites/apps you can use also, to try various strategies.

[balki]

Long-term investing seems like to only legal way; ForEx (and any high churn instruments) guys have good intern3ts and algorithms, everything else will just be a gamble

[Cam]

I'm an artist. I know nothing of business or the stock market.

[balki]

stocks = you buy a very small share of a very large company and hope to sell at a later date for more money
the catch is someone has to be willing to pay you that 'more money'
moral of the story, company's actual performance is not directly related to it's price

[Fogelhund]

stocks = you buy a very small share of a very large company and hope to sell at a later date for more money
the catch is someone has to be willing to pay you that 'more money'
moral of the story, company's actual performance is not directly related to it's price

Not directly over a short period of time, but over a long period of time, yes... The catch is being able to identify when it is undervalued for that long period.

[MR2 Fan]

Long-term investing seems like to only legal way; ForEx (and any high churn instruments) guys have good intern3ts and algorithms, everything else will just be a gamble

I consider all stock trading a gamble....aka, never invest more than you can lose, just like in Vegas

[21Kid]

Yeah, there is no guarantee in the stock market.

[sandydandy]

bumping thread...

I pulled out of that penny stock a long time ago, nothing happened with it...it's still floundering in the same place it was before.

Anyway, a co-worker started telling me about FOREX trading (currency exchange) and I feel like trying to get into it...things move much faster than stocks, so it is more of a day-trading deal but I figured I'd throw a bit at it and see what happens.

There's plenty of easy to use practice sites/apps you can use also, to try various strategies. I've trading the Forex on and off since 2009. A lot of people consider it gambling, but most don't even understand it. It's only gambling if you have a gambling style mentality, and make your trading decisions based on emotion. It takes a certain personality to do well in it, and lots and lots of practice and patience. You need to be disciplined and find a methodology that is consistent, combined with sound risk management rules, and really own it. You won't learn overnight, it could take months. Many months. Things tend to go bad in a hurry when you start deviating from your own rules and start winging it.

Intelligence and education have little to do with it. You could have a PhD in a slick office sitting in front of six screens versus a college dropout in his underwear lying in bed on his laptop, and neither person has a right to anything in the market. It all comes down to discovering a sound methodology which produces consistent results. There are so many methods, but not every method works for every person. You have to find what works for you.

Just so you know, 95% of people who trade Forex fail to make any money. You're talking to one of them. But that stat doesn't deter people, because everyone thinks they'll be in the 5% who succeed. In actuality you could do everything right and still blow up your account.

I'd recommend visiting forexfactory.com where ideas, techniques and economics are discussed, as well as where news reports are released. It's an advanced and very resourceful site with a great community, (I used to live on there). Also babypips.com to learn the absolute basics about the currency market. Both are wonderful sites, and you should visit them on a regular basis.

Absolutely start with a practice account, and once you're ready to go live, then don't go depositing your life savings. You could lose it in the blink of an eye.

OANDA is one of the more reputable brokers to go with.

Good luck.

[MR2 Fan]

I've trading the Forex on and off since 2009. A lot of people consider it gambling, but most don't even understand it. It's only gambling if you have a gambling style mentality, and make your trading decisions based on emotion. It takes a certain personality to do well in it, and lots and lots of practice and patience. You need to be disciplined and find a methodology that is consistent, combined with sound risk management rules, and really own it. You won't learn overnight, it could take months. Many months. Things tend to go bad in a hurry when you start deviating from your own rules and start winging it.

Intelligence and education have little to do with it. You could have a PhD in a slick office sitting in front of six screens versus a college dropout in his underwear lying in bed on his laptop, and neither person has a right to anything in the market. It all comes down to discovering a sound methodology which produces consistent results. There are so many methods, but not every method works for every person. You have to find what works for you.

Just so you know, 95% of people who trade Forex fail to make any money. You're talking to one of them. But that stat doesn't deter people, because everyone thinks they'll be in the 5% who succeed. In actuality you could do everything right and still blow up your account.

I'd recommend visiting forexfactory.com where ideas, techniques and economics are discussed, as well as where news reports are released. It's an advanced and very resourceful site with a great community, (I used to live on there). Also babypips.com to learn the absolute basics about the currency market. Both are wonderful sites, and you should visit them on a regular basis.

Absolutely start with a practice account, and once you're ready to go live, then don't go depositing your life savings. You could lose it in the blink of an eye.

OANDA is one of the more reputable brokers to go with.

Good luck.

:up:

[FaultyMario]

So, gambling. Got it.

[novicius]

:lol: :up:

[balki]

I think less than 95% of gamblers lose their money.

[sandydandy]

90% of startups fail. Are they gambling too?

[Kchrpm]

Yes, but often with someone else's money.

Btw if you're saying 95% of people just break even, versus lose a large chunk of their investment, that's different. But if there's a 95% chance that your money is basically getting thrown away, then yeah, gambling. With the understanding that some people are very good at gambling and make a comfortable living off of it, including people just playing poker and picking games at home.

[FaultyMario]

When you say "find a methodology that is consistent with the investor and the investments" it almost sounds like you're describing ethnographic research and not one of the most mathematically predictable human actions, finance. When Balki said that you need a set of computing tools to do the bulk of the work he was right, I'm going to guess that the 5% of people earning money have resorted to modelling.

As for the 90% of startups failing, that is a not-so straight analogy.
3 elements that affect rate of success in entrepreneurship are location, previous managerial experience and accompaniment. Move those sliders and you get a huge variability in the success of new businesses.

[balki]

Fairly sound financial advice: if your company offers a 401(k) put in at least the maximum that they'll match, it's to closest to free money that you'll get.

If you want one simple investment instrument to pick use an S&P tracker as it has outperformed bonds, CDs, mattress stuffing over the long-term. It's diverse enough where you can put all your eggs in one basket and the maintenance fees are low.
Use your extra money on buying/paying down a home, upgrading said home, paying down debt, investing in yourself (public education), buy a used low-maintenance car ... after all that then put money in stocks.
As Fogelhund said, undervalued is the way to go. That's really tough to predict (legal insider trading is a decent vote of confidence), and stocks that pay dividends typically outperform non-yielding stocks.
While penny stocks have huge upsides, a safer bet (if you have a large risk tolerance) is to go in on a company that people think may go out of business but has a chance of recovering somewhat (like Sprint and AMD this decade, Sirius or Apple last decade)

[MR2 Fan]

Agreed, AMD is probably a good one to watch

[21Kid]

I was surprised that Ford stock was so low when the other automakers needed the bail out. If I wasn't in such a bad position at the time, I would have invested in their stock. It was under $5 at one point.

[TheBenior]

My father picked up a bunch of Ford stock when it had bottomed out. IIRC, it made up for his other market losses at the time.

[Cam]

I bought my Boxster from a dude that started his own tech company, then sold it and became independently wealthy. At the time, his "job" was trading stocks for four hours a day. :lol:

[sandydandy]

Yes, but often with someone else's money. Whose money it is, is totally irrelevant, (especially if you're responsible for someone else's money, i.e. a loan), every entrepreneur goes into business for the same reason.


Btw if you're saying 95% of people just break even, versus lose a large chunk of their investment, that's different. But if there's a 95% chance that your money is basically getting thrown away, then yeah, gambling. Not true. There's no correlation between the success/fail ratio of a business and whether or not it relates to gambling. Gambling is about chance, luck, and odds (i.e. the lottery), but trading is not about that. Trading is more about thinking in probabilities, and those that find success in this field attribute it mostly to treating it as a business.

BTW I misspoke before when I said it was 95%, it's actually 90%. I had to look it up. And it doesn't just apply to Forex trading, but to all trading. Typically day trading, where the time frames are much smaller and the flow of information is much faster, leading to more rash decisions and behaviour.


With the understanding that some people are very good at gambling and make a comfortable living off of it, including people just playing poker and picking games at home. I agree wholeheartedly. I personally don't consider professional poker players to be gamblers. They're very similar to traders, actually.

Here's a great video I found on the subject. He begins talking about trading vs gambling at about the 2:20 mark. Before that he speaks at length about the wonders of the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, which I'm sure most on here will enjoy. :)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uG_XxOmlr4E

Here's an article I found on the subject of high failure rates as well: http://www.investopedia.com/university/introduction-stock-trader-types/unsuccessful-types-stock-traders.asp

Gambling is inherently related to failure, but it mostly depends on the person, and his/her actions, and not necessarily the product/security being traded.


When you say "find a methodology that is consistent with the investor and the investments" it almost sounds like you're describing ethnographic research and not one of the most mathematically predictable human actions, finance. Actually, it does relate to finance. It relates to trading, which is partially psychological in nature, and very system oriented.


When Balki said that you need a set of computing tools to do the bulk of the work he was right, I'm going to guess that the 5% of people earning money have resorted to modelling. To a point, yes. These tools you refer to are actually algorithms that are prepackaged and polished and called indicators, which are sometimes useful, but not something you would use exclusively to make your trading decision for you. Most indicators are lagging, therefore only good for confirming a trade you're already considering based on your 'edge'. Personally, I don't feel the need to use them at all.


As for the 90% of startups failing, that is a not-so straight analogy.
3 elements that affect rate of success in entrepreneurship are location, previous managerial experience and accompaniment. Move those sliders and you get a huge variability in the success of new businesses. Well it is and it isn't. It was in response to the idea of a certain success rate of an endeavour being related to gambling or not.

There are also three key elements to successful trading: finding a system (methodology), money management, and discipline.

Here's a great video I watched many years ago from a guy named Dan, aka Airelon, (who then changed his moniker to Aileron for some reason), and now has a channel called Sharpe Trade.

He's a little goofy and corny, but has a wealth of experience in the market, and talks about the difference between trading and investing, and his advice on discipline is spot on.

He's an example of what a typical independent retail trader aspires to be.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4lYTRIGg1I


I was surprised that Ford stock was so low when the other automakers needed the bail out. If I wasn't in such a bad position at the time, I would have invested in their stock. It was under $5 at one point. I remember that. I didn't act on it because I was still new to the business at the time and was probably too afraid. Oh well.


I bought my Boxster from a dude that started his own tech company, then sold it and became independently wealthy. At the time, his "job" was trading stocks for four hours a day. :lol: I don't get why that's funny. Did he sell his Boxster because he was going broke after becoming wealthy, and losing money trading stocks for a living?

[Crazed_Insanity]

I bought Ford cheap ($1.78/s)and currently gained 592%, but I only risked $2000 at the time...

However, I also 'gambled' on other stocks which turned out to be -100%...

IMHO, if you are not in control, then it's gambling. Card counters playing black jack are no longer gambling, hence casinos will kick them out. For normal folks like ourselves, playing black jack or stocks is gambling.

[21Kid]

Speaking of stock market stuff... I'm surprised the market is staying relatively calm the past few days. With how much turmoil there has been with executive orders and banning certain countries. The market generally doesn't respond well to uncertainty.

[Jason]

Eh, uncertainty sure, but Trump is pretty pro-business in the Wall Street sense, I imagine stocks/high income people will perform pretty well under him, while lower and middle income people will continue to struggle. (not much different than what's been happening for years now, tbh)

[Crazed_Insanity]

Market finally came down recently, no?

[mk]

Speaking of stock market stuff... I'm surprised the market is staying relatively calm the past few days. With how much turmoil there has been with executive orders and banning certain countries. The market generally doesn't respond well to uncertainty.

Greed is still winning and trade war is not counted in.

[Yw-slayer]

I bought Ford cheap ($1.78/s)and currently gained 592%, but I only risked $2000 at the time...

However, I also 'gambled' on other stocks which turned out to be -100%...

IMHO, if you are not in control, then it's gambling. Card counters playing black jack are no longer gambling, hence casinos will kick them out. For normal folks like ourselves, playing black jack or stocks is gambling.

Ah, that makes me feel better about my having bought Lending Club and a bunch of US biotech stocks. :lol:

[Taimar]

Speaking of stock market stuff... I'm surprised the market is staying relatively calm the past few days. With how much turmoil there has been with executive orders and banning certain countries. The market generally doesn't respond well to uncertainty.

It'll hold relatively still for awhile unless something truly calamitous happens. There is a holdover effect for a few months until people really know where the lay of the land is - it's still the Obama economy.

But we're about to be in month 92 of a growth cycle and a stock rally that's gone on almost as long as the one in the 1990s. Consider that we're in a time of appreciable chaos - it seems likely we'll see a sell-off this year. How big, well...we do things "bigly" here now.

[balki]

There's less volatility now then the 90's and great recession, so the drop won't be as big. Plus Trump could reduce/eliminate capital gains tax, in which case it'll shoot up even more.

[Fogelhund]

There's less volatility now then the 90's and great recession, so the drop won't be as big. Plus Trump could reduce/eliminate capital gains tax, in which case it'll shoot up even more.

The second highest period of volatility by decade was the 2000's... sure, since 2008, we've had less volatility, but keep in mind, we have one market crash, and that changes massively. To suggest that a drop in the markets won't be severe, because we've had relatively low volatility during an extended eight year rally, certainly does not suggest a market downturn would be less severe. Let's be honest, valuations are very high, and earnings growth just don't match such expectations. Sure, Trump could reduce Corporate taxes, and give a one time boost, and reduce Capital Gains tax, and you'd see a one time repricing up of the markets... but then, you'd still have no real growth and structurally, the prospects for real growth in the Western World are declining over time. That being said, many of Trump's policies are also drags on growth, tariffs, reduction of global trade, inflation of goods, all without a reduction in taxes on the middle and lower classes, no minimum wage increases, increased medical costs, and no real change in wages. What we do have, are proposals for massive increases in spending, and massive cuts in revenues.

What exactly does a cut in Corporate taxes, a reduction of Capital Gains, a reduction of income tax by 10% for the top income earners do for the average person on this forum? A family person? No deal with Pharma, health care going to be more expensive to the average person? These are the people who buy the most goods, and services, the average family. Reduce their disposable income and what happens? Even without such changes, the wealth spread has been such, that over time, the bottom half, or even more, of the people have relatively less disposable income... it's the way Capitalism is structured. Not that I am anti capitalist, but the system needs management, to ensure that it continues to function for all, instead of doing what it should in the purest form, which is by becoming as efficient as possible, and eliminating as many jobs through automation as possible.

What's our next "big" technological advance? Self driving vehicles... goodbye to taxi, Uber, truck driving jobs... you know it's coming, just a matter of time. That is the way capitalism works. Become more efficient, reduce costs. This is the way things have worked for decades, and will continue to work... to combat this, you need both internal legislation AND more people to sell to. That means either a high birth rate, immigration, or finding more places to sell your goods... We don't have a high birth rate, Trump is anti-immigration, and is also likely to reduce the places goods can be sold, by erecting trade barriers, and trade wars. A trade war could very well be the trigger of volatility.

Should there be a shock to the system, with rates at near record levels, and debt spending unpresidented (intentional), there will be very little that governments can do, to soften the blow, as they usually do. Short term, all bets off, markets could go up, they could go down, who knows... it's all about the confidence of the markets, and the economy. Long-term, we are at a very dangerous point, with a higher probability of a depression, than at anytime I've ever seen. As someone in the markets, I've had a lot of conversations with Institutional managers, insiders, bond traders, economists, and so on.... off the record, they are very worried, moreso than they were in 2008... I greatly reduced my market exposure in 2008, and even more now. Ignore risk at your own peril. As the saying goes, when the tide runs out, we shall see who has pants on.

[novicius]

:up: :up:

Not nearly enough chairs for when the music stops.

[21Kid]

Between truck driving jobs and automation, we're going to need a major shift in what jobs are going to be available.


There are approximately 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the United States, according to estimates by the American Trucking Association. The total number of people employed in the industry, including those in positions that do not entail driving, exceeds 8.7 million.

I've heard quite a few people have been reducing their exposure.

[balki]

Let's be honest, valuations are very high, and earnings growth just don't match such expectations.
That's been said every year for at least the last two decades. Based on the old newspaper articles I've seen I'm guessing it's been said for at least 100 years (by just about every economist).

Frankly it's true on many levels, but everything has risk. Now may be a good time to pull out, but leaving everything in low-yield bonds, CDs, savings accounts, ... for the next 20-40 years would be a mistake. Buying an investment property to rent out carries the cost of property taxes, litigious tenants, pipes bursting, ....
Investing in non-Western World (China, India and South America) wasn't all that great either.

I'm with you the rest of the way (especially "it's all about the confidence"); the rich will get richer over the next 4 years and probably will continue that trend with the next "big" technological advances.

[Cam]

I don't get why that's funny. Did he sell his Boxster because he was going broke after becoming wealthy, and losing money trading stocks for a living?
I think it's funny because he was already successful and didn't need to work, really. It was only a part-time job for him, but he was probably making way more money than I ever will. He claimed he was quite successful at trading stocks. He sold the Boxster because he bought a Smart car and he and his wife already had a Merc sedan and a Toureg. Downsizing, I guess.

This gentleman told me a story of how he was on a waiting list for two years to get a 911 GT3. Once he got it, a guy further down on the list offered to buy it because he didn't want to wait. He sold it for a $35,000 profit, having only drove it once; home from the dealer. Dude knows how to make money.

[Taimar]

There's less volatility now then the 90's and great recession, so the drop won't be as big.

There's less volatility in the market, but MUCH more risk in the fundamentals of the economy.

How do you make economic plans that measure out in years of development or construction if you're not sure if the U.S. won't simply change the rules, or burn down altogether next week? If it takes me three years to construct a facility or develop a product - or more, a complex item like the Boeing 787, a major economic generator, took a decade to develop - why should I take the risk when I don't know what'll happen or whether or not I'm on solid ground? Why invest in the U.S. at all?

Furthermore, the people who "elected" the current "regime" did so after being promised economic gains that are almost impossible to achieve - particularly at the end of a long growth cycle. At some point, the spell that holds support for the current regime is going to break, and when that happens, it won't be pretty. And the current "regime" is almost totally incapable of forming any coherent policy on anything other than "let's beat up brown people." I wouldn't hold out a ton of hope for economic expertise in a crisis there.

[mk]

IMO, the big picture now is World Bank and the likes.

China tried to become part of it but USA said no.
So China made its own, it's AIIB.

Now AIIB is lending Chinese paper dollars around the globe.
No problem with that, USA does the same with World Bank and IMF.

The frist difference is that China don't want your soul, when USA want total assimilation.
No question what will be the most wanted in the future.
But, that is not the real deal, the real deal is what China gets back.
My prediction is that at the least it's not the paper dollar.

Some may say that petro dollar is a commodity, maybe it is but its end is already peeking behind the corner.
Back in the day Saddam tried to shake it off and got a war.
Nothing went forward in Iran(sanctions) eighter before they also dropped the idea.
The big difference with China is that they are buying.

[Jason]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/trump-financial-executive-actions/index.html

[balki]

There's less volatility now then the 90's and great recession, so the drop won't be as big.
That was lazy posting on my part; I can see a correction coming, but would be shocked if it's on the the same scale as the one that bottomed out in 2009
/insertJimKramerMeme

[Taimar]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/trump-financial-executive-actions/index.html

Having had a front-seat view of the process in which Dodd-Frank was created and implemented, as well as the creation and implementation of the CFPB, this is just sad.

A LOT of people worked very hard to ensure consumers had better protections and banks were less vulnerable, and it doesn't restrict lending or capital flow. This just undoes things for the sake of making the world more chaotic, and it will certainly come home to roost.

[Jason]

It really seems they are governing for short term maximized profits, everyone else be damned.

[MR2 Fan]

It really seems they are governing for short term maximized profits, everyone else be damned.

what do you expect for a whole bunch of old guys who probably won't be alive in 10-15 years

[balki]

How The Stock Exchange Works (For Dummies) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3QpgXBtDeo) (haven't watched this yet, but their other work is top notch)