When Mercedes started struggling to generate downforce in 2021, it was considered a blip. No-one had expected the FIA floor cutbacks to affect level cars like the Mercedes more than raked ones like Red Bull, so it was a surprise to everyone. And Mercedes were still only denied victory when the Race Director made an error that got him the sack, they were very much in the fight.
When it became clear that their first ground-effect car last year was bottom of the class for porpoising, more eyebrows were raised. Mercedes had clearly dropped the ball with the big rule change, to everyone's surprise. They'd actually seemed to sacrifice more in-season development than Red Bull in '21, but still messed up the new car. But it was considered understandable, the new rules were a huge change, perhaps not surprising that Adrian Newey (who started his career in ground-effect Indycar) had solved the unsimulatable bouncing that was (literally) hammering the Mercedes drivers. Surely with the Brackley team's record and strength in depth, now that the problem was clearly visible and understood, they would do what they do best - no blame teamwork, understand the problem deeply and come back next year with a competitive solution.
However with Mercedes showing up once again with a poor car, looking fourth-best in the season opener, bigger questions have to be asked. To be fair, they have solved the bouncing problems, but they've chosen to persist with an overall concept which just seems not to have the potential of the Red Bull style designs.
I really don't know what's gone wrong, obviously some high profile people have moved on but it's not obvious that one genius has quit as far as I know. It feels to me like their decision-making structure has gradually lost the ability to make big decisions effectively over the near-decade since they successfully introduced the winning V6 hybrid in 2014, but that didn't become apparent until now.
The problem is that Red Bull and the others aren't standing still, so Mercedes need to fix their fundamental organisational problems and then out-develop Newey's lot in order to return to competitiveness, or wait for the winners to take a wrong turn of their own.
Anyway, how long do you think it will take Mercedes to get back to their winning ways? Poll question refers to Mercedes winning either the Drivers or the Constructors championship.