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Thread: Thinking about making a bet against the stock market

  1. #11
    Senior Member sandydandy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Godson View Post
    If I sold my house now, from when I bought it in '14, I would profit over 100k....
    I think most homeowners are in a similar position. My house has appreciated almost 70% in value since I bought it in 2012. Itís tempting to cash out...but the problem is you still have to live somewhere. Itís paper profit.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crazed_Insanity View Post
    When I visit Vegas to gamble, I'd only gamble small. An amount I'm comfortable losing. Don't bet an amount that's larger than what you can afford.
    I agree with all of this, I would only put money into this you view it as gambling / entertainment, and separate from your actual savings and investments.

    This is a good episode of the freakonomics podcast about investing in index funds, not necessarily specifically targeted at SLM, I think this is a good one though for anyone who hasn't thought much about investing or the stock market or anything. In short you can invest without knowing anything about specific stocks, and that is actually what you should do, you should generally not be trying to pick specific stocks, or trying to guess when the market is going to fall.

  3. #13
    Car Lawyer dodint's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sandydandy View Post
    I think most homeowners are in a similar position. My house has appreciated almost 70% in value since I bought it in 2012. It’s tempting to cash out...but the problem is you still have to live somewhere. It’s paper profit.
    Just inherit a house, easy.


  4. #14
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    Yeah, most of the time, even season fund managers cannot guess better than index funds or S&P500 or Dow Jones...

    I also personally think purposely betting a company or a market to fail is kinda unethical? Unless a company is as useless as Enron or most of US big companies are like Enron... why betting on them to fail? If you just happened to make a killing during a down market, that's cool. It means you're prepared or just lucky and it's a great way to get ahead of the rest of the folks. But otherwise, why help increasing market volatility and make everyone miserable? Plus, longterm trend of US market is going up. Unless we have a thermal nuclear war or return of Jesus, chances are you won't be able to make money if your timing is just slightly off...

    Also, I want to tell a little story for Neanderthal...

    I had an older mentor a while back, he was telling me that because although we're direct employees of the company, our projects are always pretty short term. He never felt job security for more than 6 months at a time... so he never ever bought a house. He rented for his entire life until his retirement working for the same company!

    Safe to say that he was the one pushing me to buy a house whenever I can. When you saved enough for a minimal down payment... and if you qualify for enough loan, just go for it.

    Yes, shit can happen, but what difference does it make if it's a landlord kicking you out or a banker kicking you out? Bankers actually sometimes have more incentive to work with you to lower your payments so that the house won't end up an abandoned foreclosed property! Or if the market is good, you might be able to just sell it and make a profit!

    If shit doesn't happen, you've pretty much locked up your rent payment for 15 or 30 years... and then afterwards you own that shit and become your own landlord!!!

    So all I'm saying is that if you have enough down and bank is willing to lend, please don't allow your own worries preventing you from pulling the trigger to buy a home. Yes, downturns happens, but longterm outlook is usually good. Most markets whether stocks or real estate tend to go up over time. So just do it!!! At least get preapproval from banks to see how much house you can afford. If rich people is willing to lend me money to help me buy my house with such low interest rates and help narrow the gap between rich and poor, hey, I'd jump on it.
    Last edited by Crazed_Insanity; November 20th, 2019 at 10:09 AM.

  5. #15
    Senior Member sandydandy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dodint View Post
    Just inherit a house, easy.

    Yeah right. Not exactly the happiest way to acquire something, (depending on your relationship with your parents, of course).

    Or one could always claim to be the illegitimate child of Bill Gatesís brother-in-lawís, housekeeperís, accountantís, lawyerís, mechanicís, high school friendís, mistressís half-cousin by adoption.

  6. #16
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    I don't want to invest just in real estate because:

    1) Did you see what happened in 2007/2008?? It's far from a sure thing. Again I'm betting the economy is going down from where we're at now.
    2) Investing in real estate would not be a very diverse portfolio, the way investing in an index fund of the entire market would be, even if it's one that does the inverse of the market.
    3) Investing in real estate would either mean buying a house, which I don't want to keep up and/or deal with renting out, or just investing in a real estate company, which again isn't a very diverse portfolio, and any kind of large real estate conglomerate is probably in the business of displacing poor people, which I don't want to support.
    4) I already kinda am invested in real estate since I own my house.

  7. #17
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    Yeah, real estate is probably not for you. But I do have a friend who bought his house before the crash, heís above water now... , just not as much as me!

    Maybe you should collect exotic stuffs that you like? Paintings? Musical instruments? Cars?

    Make sure itís rare and will likely appreciate in value. Even if not, at least it can still be enjoyable to you!

    (I assuming youíre already contributing to an index fund at least with your 401k?)

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sad, little man View Post
    Again I'm betting the economy is going down from where we're at now.
    Current price of gold disagrees.
    Possible China deal also.

    Though the economy in general is not exactly what it used to be.

  9. #19
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    Last time around it was pretty easy to put your finger on what was going on in the economy that was going to come to a screeching halt and disrupt it; real estate speculation. People were buying houses to turn around and sell them, and realising a profit. That was never going to be sustainable.

    This time around, I have suspicions, but there is nothing overt, nothing screaming "i'm right here sucka" to reveal what is the underlying cause. I suspect it's going to be a bunch of small things.
    Those 2 Boeing 737s crashing and their impending lawsuits. (the directors are now also in the line of fire vis a vis those crashes.)
    The Tax Bill passed by the Idiot in Chief a couple of years ago.
    The strike that GM just endured. (think about the parts manufacturers; what were they doing when GM was on strike? How were they affected, and how were their employees affected? Their families. Their communities.)
    The tariffs imposed by the Idiot in Chief. There's been some relief but the damage has been done. China is already sourcing soybeans and other crops from Brazil, Russia etc. It's going to take a long time for the ramifications of that to be fully revealed. And who knows how long the agricultural support welfare is going to be doled out.
    Etc etc etc.

    Not one thing, but many small things that add up. Factor in this impeachment hearing and all thats coming out of it (Sondland was naming names like someone introducing Daenerys Targaryan, first of her name, stormborn, ....) the mess going on with the Kurds, the recent drone attack on a Saudi oil field, incredible air pollution in Delhi and Kolkotta, India, whatever the fucksticks name is that just ascended to power in Brazil and the danger posed to the Amazon by that. So many things. So many intricate connections to other things. So many different timelines, all converging and separating.

    Either way, the little man is going to get fucked by this whole mess. The rich will get richer.

  10. #20
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    Ignoring all rational reasonings, based purely on trend lines, stock market doesn't really look that bubbly.

    https://imarketsignals.com/2019/stoc...turn-estimate/

    Anyway, just based on personal experience in the past..., when everyone thinks market is going to rise, that's usually a time to sell and get the hell out. Conversely, when everyon'e pessimistic or think it's going to go down, like now, it's actually a good time to buy! Market has usually been irrational and counter intuitive.

    I don't have any extra money to invest anyway, which ever way you go, good luck SLM!

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