Thinking about making a bet against the stock market

[FaultyMario]

Didn't John Maynard Keynes himself sustained prolonged loses on his investments after 1929?

[Sad, little man]

An update on where I'm at...

The fund I was invested in was not a direct opposite of the market. It was tied to things like the yield curve and expected inflation. It shot way up, but since this downturn has been so strange, it quickly came back down. I decided it was too risky, so I bailed out of it with a fairly small gain.

Since then I watched the market dive, and I thought it would still dive. So yesterday, kind of impulsively, I decided to throw some money into a fund that does almost the exact opposite of the market. However I bought it with funds that would take a few days to clear and I would be allowed to re-sell it. Pretty soon after, I decided it was a bad idea, because right now I don't need any more stress, and it feels just morally wrong for a part of me to be rooting for things to get worse since this has become something so much wider than just an economic crisis.

I figured out a creative solution to this. Since I couldn't sell the fund that does the opposite of what the market does, I bought the exact same amount of a fund that does exactly what the market does.

So now I have two holdings, and as one goes up, the other goes down by that much.

Once all the funds I bought them with settle in a couple days, I'll sell both at the same time, so I'll be legitimately out of the market, and I probably will be until things get a little less crazy.

[KillerB]

"Direct marketing—I thought of that. Turned out it already existed, but I arrived at it independently." - Pete Campbell, Mad Men

[Crazed_Insanity]

Yeah, I’m not a fan of betting others to fail...

However, smart investing should be like Vulcans investing... try to ignore your emotions and stick to the strategy. Only change your plan if the strategy tells you to change... don’t change because it stresses you out!

In order to minimize stress, we should only play with money we don’t mind losing.

Of course most of us cave to our emotions that’s why markets are predictably irrational...

[Freude am Fahren]

So I got kinda lucky. My company switched 410k providers this year, and my money was taken out at the beginning of March and put back in on Thursday. So I luckily didn't get hit horribly by the tumble. It's back in now though, so who know what will happen next week.

[MR2 Fan]

I put some into the market this week, put some into AMC and made $300 today (Sold it because their issues with Universal may bite them)....though I did lose $100 on some other random stocks I had.

Overall up $200 so far and looking into some other things...

[neanderthal]

I've watched a bunch of stocks for a long time without actually dabbling in the stock market too much.

Boeing just had it's earnings call.

Screenshot_20200429-130744.jpg

Fascinating to watch its stock price go up almost ten percent when the only positive metric was cash on hand. And that from an aborted tie up with Embraier (sp!?!)

It really does show that the stock market is in no way the definition link to the economy they make it out to be.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Main reason market isn’t crashing is because US has flooded the market with cash.

Boeing was seriously fucked by Max and now completely and utterly fucked by the virus.

Only saving grace would be that the company is probably deemed too important to fail.

Boeing and airbus will likely to be propped up artificially by the governments... but I wonder for how long... commercial aviation probably won’t ever return to the levels of the past.

[Rare White Ape]

Last year I shoved 80% of my superannuation fund into the socially aware portfolio, which usually has a lower growth rate, with 10% remaining in the balanced and 10% in the dirty high growth portfolios.

When COVID hit across Australia the balanced portfolios lost 8.9% and the high growth ones lost 12.5%. I’d say the vast majority of super funds are held in balanced portfolios.

My super for FY ending June 30 was down by only 4%.

I’d attribute that to the sort of industries that a socially aware portfolio would avoid being hardest hit during COVID, and the ones it focuses on (green energy, and the like) being less impacted.

That will change in the coming months as we learn to live with COVID, and which industries will recover faster. I’m keeping my eye on it, and it will be tempting to sell my soul to a heavily weighted high growth mix for the next couple of years.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Tis not the season to invest in the markets for sure...

Just look at Boeing stock, we’re only down to 2017 value.

Is Boeing selling as many airplanes now as 2017?

I have no desire to play with antimask investors betting on covid19 is just a hoax.

I’ve actually slowly moved my money out of stock funds as the markets rise recently... waiting for the big dip, the moment when the antimaskers realize our economy is really really fucked.

That’d be a good time to buy stocks!