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Thread: Pandemic Thread (CoronaVirus etc.)

  1. #771
    Parts Guy tigeraid's Avatar
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    Interesting discussion from a nutritional scientist buddy on facebook. (Yes, I know, he's not a medical doctor, but he understands statistical and epidemiological research.)

    How much does our data suck? Iceland has tested about 3% of its population and is showing 2,989 cases per million people.

    The US is clocked in at a mere 98 per million people. Under-reporting by at least 30x and that is likely with Iceland under-reporting given they have only tested 3% of their population.

    Also, these numbers aren’t even directly comparable as Iceland is a quarantined Island and this virus was very likely in the US way before Iceland and we are quarantined at our houses, but also CostCo, Lowes, Starbucks, and how about Panera take out for lunch?


    The best data we have and may ever have is the Diamond Princess. Around 50% of cases were asymptomatic in an elderly skewed population (probably even higher in a more representative sample). And we have to remember the asymptomatic population will exponentially rise too!

    Better data is coming. The constant regurgitation of the same numbers is already starting to shift and we are seeing the change in data spun as a political win. Will we continue to be reactive and driven by fear? Will we keep your eyes glued to the ticker, which ticker?
    tl;dr it seems like the number of cases, statisically, is massively underreported, but also a ton of carriers may be asymptomatic?

  2. #772
    Spiny beast TheBenior's Avatar
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    This past Wednesday, March 25th in Chicago, we had a relatively warm sunny day, and a whole lot of people were out and about on the lakefront and in the parks. The usual drunks and drug addicts on the west side (where I'm currently detailed out to instead of my usual inside spot) went back to hanging out all over after a few days of Illinois' soft lockdown.

    Having seen that, I'm inclined to think that in another couple weeks we'll get to find out just how many people get sick.

  3. #773
    What does the Bat say? Jason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tigeraid View Post
    but also a ton of carriers may be asymptomatic?
    We’ve known this for a long time, which is why so many are frustrated with how slow it’s been to direct lock downs.

  4. #774
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    For sure. China is going to include data on asymptomatic carriers in their figures soon.

    On masks, I could post more but I can't be bothered as I have enough to deal with here. However, there are a lot of pieces (Politico, Medium by one of the smartest persons I personally know, WaPo) which indicate that many of the arguments against are not solid, in that they can be dealt with by education and increased supply. Widespread mask-wearing certainly seems to have helped here. But if people want to patronise mask wearers abroad while people are falling ill and dying in their own area, that's up to them. It does mean more stock for us. Just don't come over from your maskless area and infect those of us who have put up with the inconvenience for public health reasons. Kthxbai
    Last edited by Yw-slayer; March 31st, 2020 at 06:34 AM.

  5. #775
    Spiny beast TheBenior's Avatar
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    Over here, the issue with widespread mask wearing is lack of supply for healthcare and other essential workers. Wearing a surgical mask if your work didn't require it was a lot less mainstream in the US.

    Hell, work gave me one single use PPE kit. The department hasn't out and said it, but their attitude seems to be that we'll all be exposed eventually, so do the bare minimum. Even if I get exposed and die, my wife will most likely have a hell of a time pricing it happened at work, so the city will get to duck out of paying line of duty death benefits.

  6. #776
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    I entirely agree that n95 masks or at least surgical masks should be regularly given to all frontline staff, especially medical staff and that they must have priority. My comment wasn't aimed at you man, I fully empathise with your situation you as I have helped locate masks for our frontline medical staff and other disadvantaged groups here. I don't usually speak about this but apart from time spent sourcing them and picking reliable sources overseas (involving reputational risk on our part), we also spent a good amount of money (on my part over usd1k) on it.

    But if the issue of availability for them is fixed, as is the part about education (teaching people not to touch their face and how to use them correctly), then there is every reason for everyone to wear them. I accept that as n95 are not as comfortable or easy to use then it may be better to restrict the general public to surgical mask use.

    Put another way, if the final question is "Will a properly worn surgical mask reduce the risk of asymptomatic victims spreading covid or other diseases" (which it should be) and the answer is "Yes" (which it should also be). Then the conclusion is that they should be worn as far and as widely as possible. They are no substitute for good handwashing and hygiene, but those also require good education and sufficient supply. For example, I can disinfect my hands for free 3 times between leaving my home and walking into the door of our office, but that wouldn't help if I were stupid enough to touch unclean surfaces and then my face/eyes/mouth in-between disinfecting (like the guys I see on the subway wearing masks but actually leaning against the railings... including with their face/head). But that doesn't mean disinfecting!/washing my hands is useless.

    Yes, most likely there are some dodgy masks out there. That may be so but there's also dodgy soap/sanitiser. Does it mean that we should stop using soap/sanitiser? That argument ignores the point completely. Especially when some of the revised views indicate that even homemade masks are useful.

    Anyway, no matter what, I hope everyone on the forum stays safe and well.
    Last edited by Yw-slayer; March 31st, 2020 at 07:35 AM.

  7. #777
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rare White Ape View Post
    If you’re that obsessed with masks at least try and purchase legitimate surgical masks.

    Like these ones.

    https://www.facebook.com/644818184/p...125543185/?d=n
    If you can buy N95/surgical masks from legit sources affordably, buy them. Then check with your local hospitals to see if they need them 1st. If they have ample supplies, then feel good to use them for yourself.

    For us non-medical people not working in hospitals, really any sort of DIY masks made out of old T-shirts should be good enough especially during such times of shortage. Do your own research regarding how to make the most effective DIY mask.

    Point is that earlier guidelines regarding we don't need masks were born purely because there's a shortage for even medical personnel. So they don't want people buying and hoarding them like toilet paper. Earlier recommendations IMHO were as bad recommendation as telling people that they don't need condemns during the AIDS epidemic and just rely on keeping distance...or no sex...

    New Yorkers live a lot closer than Californians... they also rely more on mass transit. If only they wore masks, maybe they could lower their numbers a bit.

  8. #778
    反重力 Rikadyn's Avatar
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    Yea, I'm not sure if I should be wearing one of my re-usuable masks( cotton, more to keep spit from landing on my mycelium) given that they are black and I generally wear a black hoodie and black pants... I mean at least I am white so...

  9. #779
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    Don't forget dark shades to keep spit from landing in your eyes!

    That should complete the anarchist look.

  10. #780
    Senior Member sandydandy's Avatar
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    Potential cure for Covid-19?

    I really hope this works out. I watched a bit of Pandemic on Netflix a few weeks ago and remember this guy Dr. Jacob Glanville. Fingers crossed.

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