Yes, I think we’re currently upticking for the 3rd time since the pandemic began...
Besides blaming it on school reopening at some states, perhaps it’s just hard to quarantine and evacuating and sheltering from natural disasters at the same time...
Hope we won’t reach new heights...
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?loc...United+Kingdom
California's positivity rate drops below 3% for the first time since testing started.
Im not convinced thats a good measure of much. It can depend a lot on who/why people are getting tested. Early when testing capacity was limited most places would only test if you had symptoms. Now some places its compulsory to be tested eg workplaces, colleges. So this can reflect that more tests are happening on people who are unlikely to have covid.Originally Posted by Tom Servo
Not saying its not a good thing, but it can reflect the testing regime as much as how the virus is going.
As far as I can tell, people much smarter than me seem to think that it's a pretty good measure. I know our total number of tests per day haven't really changed all that much for a while, they certainly haven't skyrocketed since it was closer to 9% a month or so ago.
All the other indicators are heading the right way too - number of new cases, number of hospitalizations (we're down around 730 or so vs. the 2,300 we were not that long ago) and number of deaths are all heading downwards. 'Course, who knows what'll happen if they start rolling back some of the restrictions.
Interesting to see the numbers broken down by region/continent
from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
deaths:
europe: 217k
north america: 300k
south america: 240k
asia: 180k
africa: 34k
oceania: 1k
Interesting that Asia is so low considering it has most of the worlds population (when both India and China have bigger populations than any of the other regions). India is on the way up and is half of Asia's numbers.
And Africas population is almost N.America combined with Europe.
We can ignore Oceania, its 3 people and a dog (and a few million sheep) and most are in one country.
It is good. Especially when it agrees with other numbers.
But unless you are doing randomised testing it can be skewed by other factors. My niece in college in the US has just started back one day a week, but must get tested when she comes in. I could see that sort of thing could easily change numbers as significant numbers of people are being tested because of different reasons ie because rules rather than risk factors.
We had concerns here as testing rates dropped, but as cases drop and people feel less worried they are probably less likely to get tested. Also a lot less "if you were at venue X get tested". I presume our positivity rate was also dropping significantly. My area has a positivity rate of 0. Not sure when we last had a case. There was 2 reported in June, but turns out they were reported according to their home address, not where they were actually living when tested! Probably havent had a case within a 200km north of me for months (no easy access south and there is a state border which is closed - so its not connected). Pretty good (lucky) considering how many tourists came in during the ski season, it could have turned very nasty.
Well one of them must have a decent case of the Mileys
I think one of the main reasons Asians do better than rest of the world is probably because there are more paranoid maskers than anti-maskers thanks to the previous SARS scare.
The other reason might just be... fake data... if Trump could try to downplay the severity of the situation, surely Xi could do it more effectively for China. Of course it is possible that China has it really under control, good for them if it’s true, but...
Anyway, whenever numbers go down, I think it’s good measure. However, to be honest, I’ve not only lost faith of CCP and WHO, I’m not even sure I can to trust my own government and its CDC.
I really can’t worry about China at this point, I just hope faith and order can be restored in my own country...
Last edited by Crazed_Insanity; September 22nd, 2020 at 09:09 PM.
Woo, cases are going up again, presumably due to Labor Day!
We are in hell, and this will never end.
Florida's Governor is like fuck it, open everything!!
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