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Thread: Pandemic Thread (CoronaVirus etc.)

  1. #2811
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    I was pointing out flaws in CDC's reasoning and it felt like you were just interested in pointing out my flawed reasonings rather than discussing if CDC has really improved and learned their lessons or not now we've transition into Biden admin... and with the going back to school topic, when I asked you what would you do then if you think my reasoning is flawed... and then you originally gave me you don't know. You're not an expert.

    I hope you can understand why that felt frustrating to me at the time?

    I know you are alot better than Neanderthal and YW, but can you really say that my perspective on this is really that off? To YW, I am a trump supporter. To Neanderthal, I am a very deplorable and vicious Bernie Bro. Am I wrong again with that perspective on them?

    I think it should be clear that I'm not a trump supporter... and I have no problems with you pointing out my flawed reasoning, but we need to find a way to move forward, rather than being stuck at focusing on my flawed reasoning. It's not like I did not acknowledge my flaws? Yes, the article and I do not fully agree, but it is also complaining about the CDC and it's not from fox news. Should we not complain about the CDC at all? Can we pick an choose which complaints are really valid or not?

    Regarding covid data on kids, neither one of us is wrong. Data can easily be interpreted differently and be used to tell vastly different stories.

    So let's interpret the data and find out what's the best course of action. Rather than trying to tell Billi bunch of data and then tell me you don't know what you would do if you have kids. On a personal level, sure, every household is different. Everything depends.

    However, we now are financially incentivizing schools to reopen. We used to require kids have all their shots before the pandemic in order to attend schools. Now during a pandemic when we don't have the shots for kids... now we're tell them to get back to school. Is that really a wise public policy?

    I don't believe so.

    However, I can understand parents need to offload their kids to let teachers babysit them so that they can focusing on getting back to work...

    Just as I can understand we don't want the public to buy up all of the mask as if they're toilet paper... so 'public policy' was, hey, we don't need masks! Just wash your hands!

    I just think policy makers need to be more truthful that's all. I hope you understand why I don't trust them fully.
    Last edited by Crazed_Insanity; May 10th, 2021 at 01:54 PM.

  2. #2812
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    {url=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/09/us/covid-vaccine-surplus.html]Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean are RIGHT THERE![/URL]

    The epidemic in India is too, but I don't know what the logistics are of transporting vaccines that need to be kept at such a low temperature over long distances. At least these three countries/ region are within 5 hours flight.

  3. #2813
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    LA County health officer is saying that unless vaccinations drop off drastically, given the combination of vaccinated people and people who have already had covid we will likely get to herd immunity by the end of July.

    Vaccinations have definitely dropped off, but there are a few things to be hopeful about. Pfizer's vaccine got approved for children from 12+, so that opens up a chunk of the population there, like my niece and nephew. Vaccination rates have been low in predominantly black & brown populations here, but it seems like that has a lot less to do with people not wanting to get the vaccine and more to do with their ability to get it (like time off work, transportation, nearby locations, etc), so as that improves with new programs like the White House announcing that Uber and Lyft will give free rides to and from vaccinations, or almost all vaccination sites now accepting walk-ups and no longer needing an appointment, that should also help. I do wish they would make it clearer why they ask for health insurance information when you try to get an appointment though. From what I gather, it's mostly for tracking data (makes it easier to verify you got it and get you a replacement card if you lose yours), but I have talked to more than one person who thought you *had* to provide it and if you didn't have insurance, you couldn't get the shot. I wonder how many people that's scared off.

    Finally, LA hasn't started doing some of the things other cities/states are doing, namely giving some kind of perk to go along with a vaccination. I saw in Colorado they were giving out J&J shots at a ballpark and, if you got one, you got four free tickets to the game. NY Mets and Yankees are doing something similar, and New Jersey has bars that will give you a free beer if you got the shot that day. My work is giving a $150 gift card to anyone who gets vaccinated in the next month, though those of us who already are are just in a raffle for a $500 card. There's room for the county or state to start throwing out incentives to people who might otherwise not do it.

    I know there are a bunch of people who won't get it (though that number keeps decreasing), but I do think there's still a lot of people who are at worst on the fence about it that could be persuaded to get it if a carrot gets dangled in front of them. I was talking to a guy at a local store and telling him how I'd gotten the shot and he was saying that he wanted to, he just couldn't make an appointment around his schedule. I told him that there was a mobile vaccination site about a mile away that was offering walk-ins, and then he said "yeah, but I don't live near here, I just work here, I live in Hollywood." I'm sure there are some in Hollywood, and I know he's just avoiding it, but at some point I think he'll be one of those hesitant people that will ultimately get it, it didn't seem like a "anti-vax 4 lyfe" thing.

    So here's hoping. The main thing I'm hoping is that Hawaii will start accepting proof of vaccination as enough to avoid quarantining for two weeks. I would rather avoid having one of those sticks jammed into the back of my brain when we go there in September.

  4. #2814
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    If we can really reach herd immunity during July timeframe, you should be able to get your wish in September, right?

    Fingers crossed!

  5. #2815
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    @Tom, sorry if i didn't understand your... statements.

    are you saying that for LA county, there is an absolute reduction in the number of new infections in children but at the same time they make up a relatively higher proportion of new infections?

    that would make sense with the argument you provided. Given that they are a largely unvaccinated group, as other, vaccinated, groups see less infections, children become the most infected group, even if the entire number of infections goes down.
    acket.

  6. #2816
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    Nobody in this thread ever said Swervo made no sense. Not even me.

    I just wanted to know exactly what was he arguing for based on his argument.

    So if you’re the president, should we reopen schools?

    If you have kids, would you feel safe sending them back?

  7. #2817
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crazed_Insanity View Post
    This is a long article about possible origin of this virus. I'll just leave it here without any commentary for those who might be interested.

    https://science.thewire.in/the-scien...ple-or-nature/


    Anyway, whoever's telling to truth... fact remains that USA is/was funding/experimenting with creating some sort of super infectious coronavirus. Of course, the intention was good... we wanted to understand it and find cures... surely if we intended to have military applications, we'd have vaccines already developed?

    I really do hope we eventually find the wild animal population that had the original novel coronavirus in them... cause otherwise it appears we pretty much fucked ourselves over.
    Last edited by Crazed_Insanity; May 11th, 2021 at 05:41 PM.

  8. #2818
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    Why does it really matter if we find the source?

    Are you worried about another outbreak?
    This is not ebola or something where we wiped it out but we dont have general immunity, so there is a risk of another outbreak.

    It would be good to know just so we can prepare for other similar. But hey we didnt learn/prepare much after a number of different outbreaks over the last decade or two.

  9. #2819
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    Quote Originally Posted by FaultyMario View Post
    @Tom, sorry if i didn't understand your... statements.

    are you saying that for LA county, there is an absolute reduction in the number of new infections in children but at the same time they make up a relatively higher proportion of new infections?

    that would make sense with the argument you provided. Given that they are a largely unvaccinated group, as other, vaccinated, groups see less infections, children become the most infected group, even if the entire number of infections goes down.
    Yep, pretty much exactly that. I think you'd expect the share of new infections that are children to go up as non-children are immunized, and that sans other information it's possible that it's entirely expected. We do know that they're saying about 20% of new infections are children under 16 right now. We also know that there were 224 new cases confirmed (all numbers of new cases are for LA county, I haven't been paying much attention to anything outside of there), so presumably about 45 of them were children. Even if the share of infections that were children quintupled vs. a few months ago, that would have been a 4% share of the 20,000 new cases in a single day, or 800 cases were children. So, that could also be expressed as infections in children are down almost 95%. Basically, that I'd expect them to make up a larger percentage of the total new infections each day because they're the only cohort that is entirely unvaccinated vs. apparently about 40% of adults now, and absent other information like

    • What was the percentage a few months ago?
    • Are they developing symptoms?
    • What rate are they being hospitalized at?
    • How many of the cases are fatal?


    it's probably not a valid statistic to base much of any decision on. I'd expect that now that the vaccine has been approved for 12-15, the percentage of children in that age range that make up the total will go down while the percentage of children under 12 will go up, but that the overall numbers will continue to decline. What if the previous percentage was something like 17% and now it's 20%, so 3,400 cases during the peak were children and now the total number is down over 98% from a few months ago? That'd be pretty much undeniably good news. If they're pretty much all asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic with none requiring hospitalization, even better.

    'Course, I'm not an epidemiologist. I know children are both less likely to develop severe illness and apparently less likely to be able to spread it to others, so maybe you wouldn't expect that, you'd expect them to basically stay in line because they'd only be getting infected by adults that are being immunized.

    At any rate, that was a lot of words to say "without more information, that statistic is basically meaningless."
    Last edited by Tom Servo; May 11th, 2021 at 06:57 PM.

  10. #2820
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dicknose View Post
    Why does it really matter if we find the source?

    Are you worried about another outbreak?
    This is not ebola or something where we wiped it out but we dont have general immunity, so there is a risk of another outbreak.

    It would be good to know just so we can prepare for other similar. But hey we didnt learn/prepare much after a number of different outbreaks over the last decade or two.
    Something went wrong, I just want to learn some lessons. If it is naturally occurring, we need to figure out ways to prevent it in the future.

    If it was lab leak, we need to figure out ways to prevent it.

    If we just cannot find the source, all we can do is oh well.

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