Fantasy F1 2023

[Kchrpm]

Driver Values from Mario:

30 Verstappen
19 Perez
17.5 Sainz
20.5 Leclerc
15 Russell
16 Hamilton
11 Alonso
8.5 Stroll
7 Ocon
11.5 Gasly
8.5 Bottas
2.5 Zhou
1 Hulkenberg
10 Magnussen
3 de Vries
3 Tsunoda
4 Norris
2 Piastri
1 Sargeant
2 Albon

Here is the form for submitting your teams: https://forms.gle/2ASYXQfYnESEX4KCA

PLEASE SUBMIT YOUR TEAM REQUEST IN THE ABOVE FORM

TEAM LINEUPS MUST BE RECEIVED BY EOD THURSDAY MARCH 2

If there are duplicate teams submitted before EOD Thursday March 2, I will reach out to the owner that finished better in last year's standings to pick a new lineup (unless one owner didn't participate last year, then they will need to change).

Late submissions received on Friday March 3 will be accepted but cannot be duplicates of an on-time submission. Duplicates within late submissions will give priority based on time submitted.

Submissions received after Friday March 3 WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED (unless I feel like it).

[JoeW]

Submitted...going a bit risky.

[FaultyMario]

Driver Values from Mario

I calculated from the last 4 seasons, or 82 races. And both teams' and drivers' values suffer from over or under representation. Two examples:

K-Mag. I believe he competed in about half those races, and in the time frame that was sampled, in one of the years when he was paired with Grosjean, the Swiss contributed very few points to their team's tally. Magnussen also was alongside Schumacher during his horrible year, and that sends his sum to one side of the balance. Secondly, teams are the bigger factor in the sum that make up a driver's value, now, in F1 there are 3 groupings for teams: contenders, midfield and backmarkers. The two or three contenders tend to monopolize the market for points every year (they grab between 60% and >75% of available points in any given year), and the five or six midfield teams have tended to put on very competitive fights to split roughly one third of the available points.

Depending on the year, there's one or two teams that will score close to zero points, and their drivers could produce negative values, like, I believe Mazepin did last year. I don't think i recalculated for his replacement then, so K-Mag might have been AWESOME VALUE in 2022. But this year Haas is poised to be fighting with McLaren in the tail end of the midfield, so, because of how the eighth-placed team has historically behaved, its drivers come with some expectation of scoring within the worthiness of 11 of our fantasy dollars. The problem is compunded because Nico Fückenberg had been subbing for the high-scoring Racing Point outfit in the sample space, but he contributed very little of the pointage, so his weighs suffer.

So, while I still think that Mag will beat Hulk, I don't expect it to be an 11-1 blow out. But I did not want to tinker with one driver pairing just for this anomaly.

The other example is reigning world champion Max Verstappen. RBR inherits the dominance with which the #1 team has behaved in the last few years (RB '22 and Merc '19 were vintage years, let's admit that), plus he had monster years (relative to his teammates) against Perez last year and in that year when he had Gasly and Albon in the other car. Chances are I've not really overvalued him. Again, even if I still have doubts, I didn't think it was fair to manipulate the sums.

[FaultyMario]

Submitted...going a bit risky.

I've picked Gasly for my team. It's kind of a gamble, as everyone is expecting Alpine to come out swinging with their update package for the first race. If it works, I've bought with a 30% discount; and if it doesn't, well shit.

The AMR pair also looks good, but Fred is poison in real life and I expect the same from his fantasy persona. And Stroll just doesn't have any luck. Plus, he's already missing the opening round.

Norris? I don't know. Might be worth it. If not, he should be walking out of his contract.

[JoeW]

Looking back...Hamilton was only costing 24-26pts in his dominant era. Seems like he should have been 35pts or something.

[G'day Mate]

Oh, Hulk at one point wasn't a mistake? Poop - I thought I'd spotted a "hack"

At least my mandatory Australian didn't compromise my team too much this year!

[Crazed_Insanity]

Whatever. Everyone playing to the same rules. May the best picker wins!

I’m abandoning Hondas altogether this year… I’m predicting others will catch up and Max is not worth that much money!

We’ll see!

[Blerpa]

Submitted!

[FaultyMario]

Looking back...Hamilton was only costing 24-26pts in his dominant era. Seems like he should have been 35pts or something.

Heh, funnily enough, I just checked and the proportion in cost between VER/PER is the same as in GAS/OCO. And I subjectively think that Alpine has the best driver pairing. To me, they are two of the most opportunistic drivers.

But like I said, I think the problem lies in that, of the last four years, we had two where the winning team basically ran the score.

[Kchrpm]

Mario: your team selection is currently at 49 points. Please edit your response.