Max Verstappen, future world champion?

[FaultyMario]

In the announcement video released for the return of the Dutch GP at Zandvoort, amongst all the marketing speak, the following statement appears overlaid on video of Max Verstappen's: "future world champion?"

So, I ask you the same question.

I'm pretty certain that the 2019 WDC will go to one of the Mercedes drivers, so we can asume that Max is at 102 GP entries (86 so far, plus the remaining 16 for this season).


Here's how many races it took other drivers to achieve their first world championship:

Rosberg (Jr.) - 202
Mansell - 183
Button - 169
Raikkonen - 122
Hakkinen - 111
Prost - 90
Senna - 79
Alonso - 68
Vettel - 62
Schumacher - 52
Piquet - 49
Hamilton - 35
Villeneuve - 33

[Crazed_Insanity]

I think a fairer comparison would be how many seasons did it take a driver to become champion.

Given that we have more races/season, these #s are kind skewed.

Also, looking at the 2 extremes: I think Rosberg was extremely unlucky to be paired with Hamilton just when the car is getting good. (I think he's a pretty good driver, capable of beating pretty much everyone include an older Schumacher, but we all know he's not as naturally good as Hamilton. I'm glad he finally won one! )

And JV was just lucky to be in a competitive car so quickly.

Anyway, anything short of a serious accident, pretty sure Max will be a multi-champ eventually.

Out of curiosity, who in recent F-1 history, Piquet onward, was really good and developed a reputation being #1 driver of a team over the years but retired without ever winning a championship?

Nobody really came to mind... that can match the level of Max.

[FaultyMario]

I think a fairer comparison would be how many seasons did it take a driver to become champion.

ok




Races before WDC
Seasons before WDC
WDCs
Notes



Rosberg Jr
202
10
1



Mansell
183
11.5
1
Was 1st in the standings in his 7th season until his car retired from the lead in the last race



Button
169
10
1



Raikkonen
122
7
1



Hakkiinen
111
7.5
2



Prost
90
6
4
First to win back to back titles in 26 years


Senna
79
5
3



Alonso
68
4
2
Spent the 2002 season testing for Renault


Vettel
62
3.5
4



Schumacher
52
3.5
7
First title came during highly controversial 1994 season


Piquet
49
3
3



Hamilton
35
2
5
2007... coulda, shoulda, woulda


Villeneuve
33
2
1

[dodint]

It's crazy that you couldn't make it more than one sentence without moving the goalposts.

[FaultyMario]

Two things sping to mind. Kimi should have another championship, was he ever in contention for another one? 2005 maybe? was that the year he kept braking the McLarens (or the cars were letting him down, depending who you ask).

Why the fuck does Piquet have 3 championships? That seems totally unfair. When I'm emperor of the universe, I'm going to take two from him and give one to Mansell and award the other to Elio de Angelis.

[FaultyMario]

It's crazy that you couldn't make it more than one sentence without moving the goalposts.

What do you mean?

[Crazed_Insanity]

I think he’s referring to my request?

Anyway, I guess the order doesn’t change much other than for Mansell... the guy who waited the most years for it!!! Wow!

I also, and I’m sure most, would agree kimi deserves multiple as well.

Back to topic, Max has to be able to win multiple championships given his age and reputation at this point.

[FaultyMario]

His biggest hurdle is his attitude. When you look at that list, it's clear he's different from most of them.


Except Piquet, they're both douchebags. Yet the brazilian took it home in his fourth attempt, young Max is in his sixth.

[Crazed_Insanity]

What about Alonso? ;)

Nowadays, even Senna can’t beat Mercedes in that RB Honda/Renault... he’ll just have to wait til improvements become enough or jump to another faster team.

[dodint]

What do you mean?

You snuck your reply in, I was referring to Billi doing his best to guide the discussion away from the prompt.

I was the first to vote "No", unsurprisingly. ;)

[FaultyMario]

I was the first to vote "No", unsurprisingly. ;)

I'm still undecided, leaning "no" because of the stated reason (entitled douchebag) and because time can eat talent away when results take long.

I think Max lacks Prost's methodical approach or Nico's discipline. And He surely don't have Mansell's grit.

[dodint]

My initial thoughts when reading the poll was that he doesn't have the "smart/savvy" intangible to get it done. So unless he works into a Hamilton-type situation where he is given an unbeatable car I think he'll have an also-ran career. I'm not sure he is capable of growing into his talent.

Not having a functioning team mate has taken some pressure off and he is less twitchy this year. Will he ever get the combination of unbeatable car and limp dick team mate, though?

[FaultyMario]

It's sad what they've done to Gasly's career. Torpedo in the other car would have been awesome.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Ayrton Senna didn't feel entitled, he knows he is God's #1 favorite.

Senna also crashed into teammates, thrown away races and showed mastery in rain...

You are right that Max is no Prost nor Rosberg nor Mansell, Kimi, Button... I think Ricciardo is more in this camp.

I'd put Max in the Senna, Hamilton camp.

I think Schumaher, Vettel are in there special German camp, when things go well, they can do really well with multiple championships, but when faced with a faster teammate, they don't seem to respond very well. Maybe Schumacher was just too old to fairly compete with Rosberg, but Vettel clearly doesn't do very well under pressure from a faster teammate.

I think one important step all racers gotta be careful of is to never accept a #2 position. If Bottas doesn't win it this year, it's very possible that he may never win one in his career. Charlie boy also gotta be careful in Ferrari... not to submit as the #2 for another season. Once you do that, you can for sure kiss the possibility of multi championships good bye. You absolutely HAVE to feel 'entitled'. If you don't, somebody feeling more entitled, in your team, will finish ahead of you.

[JoeW]

How many of those guys were racing F1 in their teens? Of course he's going to have a few more seasons under his belt. You guys keep talking about his attitude but the guy has been a beast since after the summer break last year. He doesn't complain on the track (his radio transmissions are always eerily calm and reassuring), his tire management is top of the class, race craft is amazing, patience...he's got it all...except the top machinery. And Mercedes wants him badly if you read the reports. So...put him in a Merc with Ham or Bot as a teammate? I bet Max wins those inter-team battles every time.

So Max is what, 22 now? Or late 21? He's got another 10-15yrs at least. If he can secure a top car could break Hamilton's records for sure.

[samoht]

I voted yes - multiple. I don't think that there's much connection between being a nice guy and being a world champion, so the argument about his personality is to me moot.

I agree with Billi that years is probably a better guide than races, in as far as there's only one winner per year. Being in his 5th season now, I wouldn't say he's missing his chance. Additionally, he started younger than a lot of the others above - this coming September he will turn 22, or the same age that Michael Schumacher was when he made his F1 debut at Spa in 1991. If he retires at the same age that Michael did, he'll hang up his helmet in December 2030. So I don't think we need worry about the timescale.


There are only two questions really - is he good enough, and will he get the chance of a winning car? To me the answer to the first is a clear yes, his ability against his teammates, and his habit of snatching opportunistic race wins against superior competition, plus great car control, are the marks of a real talent behind the wheel. And as above, he's got another decade to grow up and learn a slightly more mature approach, if needed.

For the second, I would say probably yes. At present, sure the top seats are occupied. Max is a decade younger than Vettel and Hamilton - the only question is who else is around his age, who might beat him to a winning seat. Charles Leclerc is the obvious one, I can't personally think of anyone else who's going to hog the best seats. I also suspect that at some point in the next decade, F1 will move back to a slightly closer level of competition between the teams, leading to maybe up to 6 drivers having a theoretical shot at the title - and if Max has vaguely equal equipment, I'd expect him to be a contender.


So basically, given talent plus many years' worth of opportunities, and a lack of many other contemporaries who will beat him to the chance, I personally expect to see Max be WDC at least a couple of times.

Edit - took so long drafting, Joe said it more concisely already :-)

[JoeW]

Edit - took so long drafting, Joe said it more concisely already :-)

But they respect your opinion more than mine...me being a fanboy and all ;)

And let's say for shits and giggles Merc scoops him up next year. Can you imagine the pressure to perform at Zandvort next year? Ack...

[Freude am Fahren]

I'm sure he's got the talent.

I think he'll mature enough to not blow it.

I'm not sure he'll ever be in the right car. The sport is so much more about being in the right car than being the most talented.

[dodint]

I can't say that he's alienated teams; but I will say that we heard non-stop all last year that Alonso was the greatest driver to ever grace a motorsports track and 'oh what could have been' if he hadn't pissed off everyone he ever worked with. Attitude does matter.

[FaultyMario]

All I'm saying is: a) he is supremely talented. b) he has been massively oversold, mostly by dad. c) a + b sound like a recipe for feeling he's wasting his talent. d) time has shown that the type of guys that hit it late in life have developed something more than just pure talent. e) I haven't seen anything more than talent from Max in his six years in Formula one, except of course for off-track behavior similar (http://classic.autosport.com/news/atlasf1-report.php/id/3128)to that of his abusive father (https://www.crash.net/f1/news/175863/1/verstappen-arrested-charged-with-attempted-murder).

[balki]

Multiple: He and Leclerc are the only two clear top guys under 30* (both 21) so they'll theoretically be battling out most of the 2020's championships.

With that said, he hasn't shown to be an all-time great but will put up great numbers because of his age and number of races.
Max beat Carlos Sainz Jr. in 2015, but Ricciardo beat him in 2016 and 2017. When the retirements were even, Ricciardo was ahead of Max in 2018 as well.
*Ricciardo will be at least 31 by the time get gets a decent car again

samoht, I think you mean If he retires at the same age that Michael did, he'll hang up his helmet in December 2030 August 2040

[FaultyMario]

Speaking of top cars, I'd be interested to know what's the return on Mercedes' investment. It's been free global publicity basically, or what Ferrari enjoyed for 50 years. If Bottas wins it this year, their brand recognition would go thru the roof, as they won't be seen winning because of their drivers.

[Rare White Ape]

I think the stars will align for Verstappen eventually, but without a hot seat at Ferrari or Mercedes, and also without a stronger or more experienced driver taking the #1 role, it’ll be hard for him.

So I voted that he’ll get one. Just one.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Interesting that nobody on this board is humble enough to say 'I don't know' when it comes to predicting the future.

A the moment, multiple times is in the lead!!! :hard:

(My little smilie icon is suggesting at least 4 times!!!)

[dodint]

I think a pretty good comparison to Verstappen is Bryce Harper. A talented douchenozzle that's never won anything but seems to feel he's owed success.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Don't know Bryce Aron Max Harper because I don't watch baseball all that much.

Whoever it is, put him in a RB and intimidate teammate Ricciardo enough to want to bail from the team, then I'd agree with your comparison.

[dodint]

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/analogy

[Crazed_Insanity]

I find it interesting that you can find Tom Swervo's snarky responses offensive yet dish out stupid snarky responses yourself.

Do you really think I don't know what 'analogy' means or just trying to be funny? Oh my gosh, I didn't realize that I'm so stupid. Thanks for letting me know. :D

I still think your analogy sucks and you're wrong about Max though. :p

[Dicknose]

I think he will.
Im with Joe and samoht - he is just so damn young that he has time. Sooo much time.
We dont know who will come thru (Leclerc is here, but who is coming in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years?).
He might not win a championship till Vettel and Hamilton retire. Actually think that is almost the better question (sorry moving the goalposts) - those who think he will win, will it be in the next 5 years against the current drivers or later (possibly much later)
Burn out (mental - not tyres!) is a danger. Possibly a bigger risk for him than most, being successful at such a young age and then stalling could easily lead to frustration and he doesnt handle frustration well.

As for the rest of his attitude (and yes I think it is a factor in drivers - often "bad" is what you want, just not "terrible") - I think he has that about right. His team seems to like him while the other drivers dont. That can be a successful mix.
I think he is attractive to teams, proven record, fast when its his day, not too crashy! I could see him being courted by the top teams and get the best car.

[JoeW]

Well the F1 site have ranked him #1 since race 2. Proclaimed “douchenozzle” by the illustrious Dodint or not.

[dodint]

Takes one to know one and all.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Yes, pretty sure you’ll be a multiple champ in your field too! :D

[FaultyMario]

If Hamilton gets a long term contract, he might become this generation's Montoya. A brilliant, fast douchenozzle. Well, except that Montoya was a hot-headed idiot off-track, but not an entitled one.

[JoeW]

I think the future hinges on the Mercedes. If they continue to build the top machinery through into the next rule change then I feel for the future of F1 in general as far as the audience is concerned.

Whether Hamilton signs or not, Mercedes likely has the next couple of championships in the bag until the big rule change. The points spread might be a little closer though.

But hopefully the rule shakeup can bring everything back to square one. If Mercedes stays in F1 and continues building the top machinery then fans will start losing interest. I mean even Mercedes fans will be wanting parity after 10 championships in a row.

So my thoughts are that Max’s future really hinges on the Mercedes advantage. Because a Russell/Bottas combo is just as dominant in the current machinery hierarchy.

In a few years hopefully another team emerges to build a true competitor. Until then Max will be stuck in 2nd or 3rd for the foreseeable future.

[FaultyMario]

If they don't sign Hamilton maybe, maybe, he has a chance of being picked up. That's what I meant. I wasn't sufficiently clear.

[JoeW]

Well my thoughts were that even if they don't sign Hamilton I thought Russell would be the replacement. And Bottas the number 2.

Not sure how likely it would be for Mercedes to drop Bottas in the future and pick up Max. They've seemed pretty much a "no" on that possibility. Which pretty much ruins Max's WDC hopes...assuming Merc stays dominant. Because this Honda "rebadging" (and subsequent attempt to "freeze development") is just a very temporary way to stay relevant by RBR. One that will fail eventually.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Nobody can stay on top forever. Only way for Mercedes/Hamilton to go is either stay #1 or go down... just a matter of time. :p

My personal gut feeling is that Max is better than Montoya. At least Max’s driving moves me more than Montoya’s...

Anyway, nobody can predict the future, who knew Senna was only good for 3 championships...

[JoeW]

Number 2

[Tom Servo]

I like that I was trying to avoid spoilers from the race, but just looking at the main GTX page made this pop up as the most recent post and I will stab you, JoeW.

[Tom Servo]

I mean, it's not a big surprise or anything, but also stab stab stab

[JoeW]

Shit I am terrible at this!

[FaultyMario]

Number 2

100% sure?

Because of the pending investigation of a possible budget cap infringement, not bc something else.

[JoeW]

I am 100% sure of what was announced and celebrated at Suzuka. After that…who the hell knows?

FIA are a fucked up organization…

[FaultyMario]

FIA are a fucked up organization…

News at 11, don't forget to tune in.

[JoeW]

I’ll adjust the rabbit ears on my console TV…

[samoht]

Congrats to Max, he's driven extremely well this year, edging Leclerc who's made a couple too many errors. If they were team-mates I still think Max would have taken it, although it'd be a lot closer without the helping hand of Ferrari's strategic geniuses, probably go down to the last or penultimate race.



100% sure?
Because of the pending investigation of a possible budget cap infringement, not bc something else.

I'm 99% sure the FIA won't retrospectively change the result of either of his two championships. Not because there isn't good cause to do so, but because of how they'd make themselves look like idiots in public, and it would massively undermine faith in F1 as a sport to cancel the result the following year after the auditors are done.

Ultimately you have to be able to trust that what you've tuned in and watched happen is considered valid, and won't be undone for obscure technical reasons in the days/months/years to come. Otherwise why bother watching at all?

So yeah, Max is double world champion.


The interesting follow-on question to this thread is, how many championships will Max win? I might start another thread so I can make a poll for that...

[samoht]

Follow-up poll started http://gtxforums.net/showthread.php?2147-How-many-championships-will-Max-Verstappen-win-in-total