F1 Champions of the 2020s?

[samoht]

Last year saw the first member of the new generation of F1 drivers become champion. However with Lewis likely to race only another two or three years at most, that raises the question of who else is going to win a championship between now and the 2029 season.

The three listed drivers seem to me to be the most plausible members of the new generation to win titles - most of the rest of the grid have either been beaten already by team-mates and/or their careers have stalled out.

So, who else do you think will win? Or are we instead going to see Max become the first ever eight-time world champion?

Explain your answers below...

[JoeW]

Man this is tough. Those 4 all have a great chance especially if they can move to a top team over the next several years. Max has shown he is a force of nature at overperforming the equipment he is given.

I predict the Mercedes package taking over the Ferrari dominance next year. And that does not bode well for RBR. But with a new set of rules and some new meat coming (in 2026?) there could be another shakeup. Especially if someone like RBR (who don't "really" make their own engines) commits to a new company like Porsche...what if the engine package is awful? (I hope not because I like Porsche and hope they come in and kill it) That's the end of their run. It's so hard to predict. But if Max/Lando can find their way to top teams then I think they are the top two guys. I'm not a George fan. I like Charles but I am not sure he's a killer like Lewis and Max yet.

And who knows? If Max retires early like he seemed to indicate, then it could be wide open after that.

[Rare White Ape]

Verstappen might get 2 or 3 more. Hamilton might get his 8th. Russell will get 2. That leaves two more: LeClerc and someone from F2 who hasn’t graduated yet.

[FaultyMario]

Mick might or he might not.

That's what his career has shown thus far.

[Yobbo NZ]

I'd like to hope if Lawson gets a RB drive, he'd do pretty well. Pulls off some great overtakes in F2 when the car is setup well.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Sainz probably has an outside chance of winning one. He has proven that he could hang with Lando and Leclerc… and super adaptable in various teams.

It’d be cool if there’s another rising star coming up in the pipeline whom I do not even know yet…,

[FaultyMario]

Sainz lacks the killer edge. Some guys just don't have it.

[JoeW]

That’s what I feel about LeClerc also. He’s fast but not a true killer.

[Crazed_Insanity]

How do you define killer edge?

I think Leclerc and Sainz are just not mature enough, that’s why the occasional mistakes. However, I get the feeling that they’re both super competitive with their teammates.

Sainz couldn’t edge out Lando, but he was closer than Ricciardo!

Sainz also hasn’t been able to edge out Leclerc, but at least parity between the 2 Ferrari teammates are not too big. Once they’re more mature and able to handle more pressure, surely they’ll make things difficult for Max.

George has been exceptional so far, every time he’s in a Mercedes, he managed to make Hamilton look bad most of the time. If he keeps this up, Hamilton should join Vettel soon.

[samoht]

Every decade of the world championship has seen between five and seven different drivers take the crown, except for the last which was limited to Vettel/Hamilton/Rosberg. I'm expecting between one and three further names to add to Hamilton and Verstappen.

I do think team is a big part of it; at present there are three 'big' teams, so it seems most likely that Merc, Red Bull and Ferrari will continue to win most or all of the championships. It's entirely possible that another team, McLaren for instance, could have a breakthrough year and take it, but to for any individual team to do so feels like an outside chance. Neither Alpine nor Ocon look like champions to me.

So I'm going obvious and voting for Russell and Leclerc to be the other two winners, because they're the two with an obvious path to victory.

Lando either needs McLaren to make a step to the front, or to change team. The big opportunity I see is who replaces Lewis at Merc, because that's a potentially winning seat that'll open up at some point in the next few years. So Lando might, but slightly more likely not as I see. I do think he's good enough from what we've seen - some great laps, consistently scoring well in races, and putting Danny Ric well in the shade when the opposite was anticipated.


IMHO Mick Schumacher hasn't really looked like a champion yet, he's not obviously better than K-Mag, who isn't.

Carlos Sainz is an interesting one. In my opinion he definitely looks good enough to become a champion if the cards fell his way, and has stood up impressively well against both Max and Charles as team-mates. However there's a very high level of competition in F1, and he's clearly at Ferrari as a 'number two driver'. So I reckon less than 50% chance for him, but it wouldn't be a shock if he did nab one.

Of course the fun of discussions like this (and the previous one 'Max Verstappen, future world champion' http://gtxforums.net/showthread.php?1938-Max-Verstappen-future-world-champion) is that we get to come back later and see how our predictions compared to what actually transpired.

[Rare White Ape]

Well here is an interesting question: when was the last time a #2 driver won a title? To my memory, it has never happened.

We came close when Eddie Irvine nearly won in 1999 after Schuey spent the last half of the season recovering with broken legs from that big crach at Silverstone. When Hakkinen eventually won the title, it was alleged that at the time Schumacher asked Ferrari to ensure that Irvine's challenge to Hakkinen was hamstrung just so that he could be the guy who took the honour of scoring Ferrari's first WDC in ages.

Well maybe it was Ayrton Senna. Or Alain Prost. Who knows? Which driver was #2 of that pairing in 1989?

[samoht]

I think Carlos winning a WDC at Ferrari wouldn't be that much more surprising than Nico R winning at Merc in 2016. Against the run of play, but not an outlandish possibility. 'All' it would take would be for Ferrari to be good enough, but Charles to have a few bad results early in the season, leaving Carlos with the best chance. However it's a fairly low probability in my mind, less than 50% that it ever occurs.

[dodint]

Well here is an interesting question: when was the last time a #2 driver won a title? To my memory, it has never happened.


Alright, I'll bite. What criteria have you set where Rosberg doesn't count as a #2 here?

[Crazed_Insanity]

I think Carlos winning a WDC at Ferrari wouldn't be that much more surprising than Nico R winning at Merc in 2016. Against the run of play, but not an outlandish possibility. 'All' it would take would be for Ferrari to be good enough, but Charles to have a few bad results early in the season, leaving Carlos with the best chance. However it's a fairly low probability in my mind, less than 50% that it ever occurs.

Fair analysis, pretty much what I think about Sainz as well. In any given year, I probably won't bet on Sainz, but in a decade, he becomes more probable than an 'average' F1 driver! :p

To be fair to Rosberg, he earned his respectable #1 status against Michael so he was never treated as a #2 like Sainz I think. Anyway, as far as #2 goes, I just have never seen a #2 as consistently fast as Sainz in recent memory. I think Sainz is better than Bottas!

Regarding RWA's #2 driver question, Vettel was hired as a #2 paired with Webber. Also, back in 2008, Massa almost won for Ferrari if Ham didn't gain that position in Brazil last minute, surely he was supposedly the #2 against Kimi?

Anyway, fortune could change unpredictably. I'm just hoping there won't be just one dominating the entire decade. That'd be boring... even if that person is Max. :p I'd gladly cheer for Leclerc, Russel and Lando.

Ferrari's team strategies/reliabilities aside, Leclerc is obviously not quite ready. Of the 3, Russell looks to me to be the most consistent under pressure.

At this stage, I'm just glad at least there isn't one team that's so dominating...

[edit] coming back from the other thread, I want to add one more driver with a lot of conditions, that is assuming McLaren becomes competitive and design a car that suits his driving style and assuming that he is still driving for the team by then... I'd nominate Ricciardo!!! I know, probably a lot lower probability that Sainz, but if all the planets lined up, obviously this guy was able to run with Max!

[Blerpa]

Well here is an interesting question: when was the last time a #2 driver won a title? To my memory, it has never happened.

Rosberg.
Also Vettel was always #1 at Red Bull.
And Massa was equal status with Raikkonen when he did lose a championship making a lot of mistakes. Brasilian GP stuff does not matter. He would not have been a worthy F1 champion.

[FaultyMario]

Also Vettel was always #1 at Red Bull.

Not so sure about that anymore, as the years pass, more information comes out about the PR offensives dished out from the Weber camp.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Jr Vettel won a race at TR, coulthard retires… RB promoted a Jr. as #1?

Surely Vettel earned his #1 status. Had Vettel performed like Gasly, Horner would’ve dropped him just as quickly.

Webber did not like losing the #1 status. Vettel also didn’t like losing that status against Ricciardo. Ricciardo also didn’t like losing it to Max. As far as I can recall, RB doesn’t hire #1s, drivers have to earn it.

[Rare White Ape]

Alright, I'll bite. What criteria have you set where Rosberg doesn't count as a #2 here?

The criteria is that I simply forgot about it :lol:

My knowledge of that era of F1 is quite sparse.

[dodint]

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