Tesla!!!1 (Was: Tesla Sales banned in NJ.)

[Random]

Prius.

[thesameguy]

There isn't enough space to provide a useful amount of charge from solar panels on the top of a car.


Yes, it wouldn't be enough to run the car but it probably would be enough to get a decent amount of charge while sitting in a parking lot all day.

Best. Ever.

[thesameguy]

Prius.

Audi had that too, briefly, on the A8. Actually, maybe they still do!

Saab featured it in a prototype in '85 as well.

[Drachen596]

I can't see a straight electric truck being all that useful.. The ones being worked on/built by Wrightspeed seem far more ideal for that market. they're hybrids.

we have hybrid buses here already, and the buses run pretty much 12+ hours a day without really any stops.

[MR2 Fan]

I can't see a straight electric truck being all that useful..

The same was said for electric cars before Tesla came along.

[Drachen596]

let me know when you get the battery tech to run a 40k load from Minnesota to Indiana without recharging for a ridiculous amount of time.

[MR2 Fan]

let me know when you get the battery tech to run a 40k load from Minnesota to Indiana without recharging for a ridiculous amount of time.

Tesla's already been working on battery swap-out stations for their cars, so maybe we'll see that.

[thesameguy]

And not all trucking is long haul. Plenty is local or regional. Nobody bought a Model S to commute cross country, they shine for people who have local gigs. No reason Tesla trucks can't start there and replace a bunch of box trucks, etc.

[21Kid]

They'd be perfect for USPS, FedEx, UPS, Amazon, etc...

[21Kid]

Besides, technology keeps advancing.

Flash charging technology to charge Geneva e-buses in 15 seconds (http://inhabitat.com/flash-charging-technology-to-charge-geneva-e-buses-in-15-seconds/)

Buses can connect with charging points in less than a second and in 15 seconds will receive a “600 kilowatt boost.” Using the technology, e-buses can be recharged completely in just four to five minutes.

[Sad, little man]

Yeah, that sounds really healthy for the batteries.

[Drachen596]

Ups and fedex have already toyed with electrics. Theyre still running diesels and i havent heard anything about their electrics in years.

[thesameguy]

Battery and charging technology has changed dramatically in just the last few years. 20a charging was considered aggressive just a few years ago, now 40a charging is completely normal with 70a charging "coming soon" (and already done in Teslas). With so many battery powered cars on the road these days we're learning a lot about how charge and discharge behaviors and technologies affect batteries and we're building better examples of both. I don't think there is any statistical evidence that shows 40a charging negatively affects batteries in a meaningful way, and I'd wager we'll soon find 70a charging doesn't either. Remember, DC charging can be done in series or in parallel, so if built right you could break your bus-sized battery pack into a dozen car-sized battery packs and charge like that. The limit may turn out to be the building service - twelve 70a chargers is a LOT of load! You just probably won't see that on passenger car because a) residences can't support that and b) nobody would be able to handle the plug. But on a bus? In a standardized service bay? No worries.

[Sad, little man]

Hmmm, I hadn't thought about charging the cells in parallel.

[21Kid]

Especially if they can develop cheaper ultra-capacitors, or the super-batteries that I keep hearing about.

New graphene super batteries charge up in seconds and last virtually forever. (http://inhabitat.com/new-graphene-super-batteries-charge-up-in-seconds-and-last-virtually-forever/)

[overpowered]

http://fortune.com/2016/08/06/tesla-autopilot-hospital-rescue/

[21Kid]

neat :up:

[Godson]

Very cool

[21Kid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CYB2ELWg-g

[Freude am Fahren]

Something I hadn't thought of before, but Tesla's must kill it in high altitude. Not only should it be a little faster because of the thinner air, but the other cars will be down on power. Maybe a 10.5 in Denver area?

[Kchrpm]

That's one of the reasons for the electric car push at Pikes Peak this year, though the overall winner was still an Unlimited car.

[21Kid]

I'm glad they're not abandoning the driver-assist mode (they need to stop calling it autopilot)

Tesla’s Autopilot 2.0 said to add triple camera system and more radar (https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/11/teslas-autopilot-2-0-said-to-add-triple-camera-system-and-more-radar)

Tesla’s Autopilot is set to get a major update soon, according to multiple reports, and a new one from Electrek details some of the new hardware improvements that will pave the way for its arrival. The autonomous driving assistant for Tesla vehicles will benefit from a new front-facing triple camera array, Elecktrek reports, and will also add additional radar around the car, to supplement the forward oriented radar used in current models.

[Kchrpm]

100,000 mile Tesla taxi: http://jalopnik.com/heres-how-a-tesla-taxi-held-up-after-100-000-miles-1785360286


Christian Roy of Quebec City has been using his Tesla Model S as a taxi for over two-and-a-half years, accumulating over 100,000 treacherous taxi miles. How did this high-tech electric car stand up to that much cab abuse? Extremely well, it turns out.

[21Kid]

I can imagine. Electric motors last a lot longer.
Seems like a perfect taxi, with an unlimited mile warranty.

[Kchrpm]

When you read the article, the drive unit is actually what has failed the most. The difference is that replacing a drive unit is free under warranty and takes less than 24 hours. Try getting a free engine replacement in a day from your dealer!

[21Kid]

Yeah, I saw that. 24hrs is really impressive. They were both the earlier units that had issues.

[21Kid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pCrA7F_Ghc

[Yw-slayer]

I can imagine. Electric motors last a lot longer.
Seems like a perfect taxi, with an unlimited mile warranty.

They are. Most of the Uber drivers in HK now use Teslas, to the extent that normal Tesla owners are complaining about how the Uber drivers hog the Superchargers. This is important because most of them (as with most HK residnets) are unable to install chargers next to their parking space and place a fair amount of reliance on public chargers.

Good to see that his Legacy (same generation as ourus) lasted 330,000 miles though. That's around 12.3x the number of miles that ours has done!

[TheBenior]

Good to see that his Legacy (same generation as ourus) lasted 330,000 miles though. That's around 12.3x the number of miles that ours has done!

330,000 miles with a couple of "engine rebuilds" in-between doesn't seem like that high of a bar, even in cab usage.

[Crazed_Insanity]

because most of them (as with most HK residnets) are unable to install chargers next to their parking space and place a fair amount of reliance on public chargers.


Oh yeah, never thought about that... lots of apartments in Taiwan also have a somewhat semi-public underground parking... not sure how you can install private chargers there... because your neighbors in the next stall could conceivably steal your plug and use it to charge his own EV? ;)

Anyway, this might put a damper on EV sales in Asian or crowded cities such as NYC?

[thesameguy]

There are multitenant places around here with EV chargers. I've not seen any where you are directly responsible for the bill, I think the owner pays a flat rate for the service (just like the parking spot in the first place) and the property absorbs the actual cost of the electricity. With the small batteries on most EVs these days it's not a lot of money - the Fiat is about $20/mo/1000 miles so if you pay a $100 "EV charge fee" the property is well covered. Although it's theoretically possible for someone to steal your charger, I don't know how that would work in practice. It's no different that pay-for chargers that exist right now... You plop $6 into ChargePoint and someone sneaks in and steals the plug... but, you'd have to get close enough for the cord to reach and I don't know how you could do that. If it was *really* a problem the plugs could be easily be keyed to prevent them from being used/removed.

Lots of ways to address the problem if it became a problem, but I've not seen it being a problem yet. Probably not enough people have EVs. ;) When it does, just key the plug. :)

http://charge.yazaki-group.com/english/img/product/normal_outlet_key.jpg

http://i565.photobucket.com/albums/ss92/TonyWilliams/image-3.jpg (http://s565.photobucket.com/user/TonyWilliams/media/image-3.jpg.html)

[Crazed_Insanity]

Especially in China, you'll definitely need to lock your charger up somehow... ;)

Or maybe chargers will need to have capabilities recognizing vehicles' unique ids... cease to function when plugged into unauthorized vehicles... (Or perhaps suck the juice out of the battery of thieves!)

Ideally probably cordless charging will be the way to go... it'll be difficult to steal your electricity when you're parked over your charger!

Anyway, just another reason that EVs might take a while to catch on in Asia or crowded cities... no way model 3 will become popular in Asia right now..., but it's not like there's a way for Musk to build all those Model 3's now anyway...

[thesameguy]

Authenticated charging would make sense. I think all the pieces to do that already exist - plenty of chargers can be controlled with Zwave or Zigbee, so the only requirement would be to default the charger to "not charge" until an app you've authenticated through tells it to start. That's easy, that's done.

[Kchrpm]

https://www.engadget.com/2016/08/23/tesla-unveils-100-kwh-battery-pack-for-model-x-and-s/
http://bgr.com/2016/08/23/teslas-crazy-new-model-s-p100d-is-the-fastest-production-car-in-the-world/

100 kwh battery = 315 mile range, 0-60 in 2.5 seconds. New models for Model S and Model X, and P90Ds can be upgraded for $10k-$20k.

[21Kid]

Wow. :eek:


Let’s talk for a minute about how fast this new car will be. Doing 0-60 in 2.5 seconds is crazy fast. Two road-legal cars in the world can beat that: the Ferrari LaFerrari and Porsche 918 Spyder, both of which cost a lot more than $140,000, and neither of which have a real trunk.

[Kchrpm]

You know, I wonder if they can get 315 miles per tank.

LaFerrari: 22.7 gallon tank, 16 mpg highway = 363.2 miles
918 Spyder: Total range according to the EPA is 420 miles

[thesameguy]

Electricity scales a bit better than gas - you don't lose efficiency to mechanical compromises at nearly the rate of an ICE. If we could get the energy density of gasoline into a battery, we'd be set!

[Sad, little man]

Sorry, but as far as I'm concerned, all these OMG acceleration figures from the Tesla come with a big fat asterisk next to them because these acceleration modes can't be repeated over and over again as often as you want. Apparently there is some cooling time that needs to take place between accelerations. Due to this, I'm sorry, I can't consider this car to be on the same engineering level as a vehicle that can accelerate like this over and over, as much as you want. Clearly, accelerating this car this way stresses the powertrain past the point where it can consistently operate, so I can't really consider it to be a legitimate performance figure. I'm much more impressed by a car that is actually designed to accelerate like this consistently. This is really no difference than putting a shot of nitrous in a car, IMO. Sure, it'll go fast for a second, but it's not on the same level as a car that could perform like that consistently.

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a29570/porsche-engineer-tesla-ludicrous-facade/

[novicius]

...so you're waiting for a $200K Porsche or are you against electric cars across the board?

[thesameguy]

That's certainly one way to look at it. But another way to look at it is that the P90D can accelerate very quickly repeatedly and reliably, but can also go much faster once with the push of a button. Not many cars have a $0 Extra Fast button. I think most people would prefer to have it than not.

If the P90D was slow in regular acceleration mode but had a very special one-shot mode that many it very fast or competitive, I'd agree, the marketing is deceptive. But the P90D is no slouch in regular mode.

Besides all that, it's academic. The only people who buy these super fast cars and actually use their abilities more than once every three minutes are the same people who have to sheepishly abandon them on PCH or in the forest, wrapped around light poles and trees. Everyone else - Porsche drivers included - are sitting behind the same Camry as everyone else, yapping on their cell phone and trying to figure out their nav system. The only people out there driving their cars at 10/10s are Miata owners. Because their cars are slow. :P

[Jason]

Much like the cock pushup, you only need to do it once :hard:

[21Kid]

That's certainly one way to look at it. But another way to look at it is that the P90D can accelerate very quickly repeatedly and reliably, but can also go much faster once with the push of a button. Not many cars have a $0 Extra Fast button. I think most people would prefer to have it than not.

If the P90D was slow in regular acceleration mode but had a very special one-shot mode that many it very fast or competitive, I'd agree, the marketing is deceptive. But the P90D is no slouch in regular mode. Exactly... The model S isn't even meant to be a super-fast sports car. They aren't trying to compete with Porsche. It just so happens that they can make a family sedan that has a go-fast button. :lol: Even the base model is still really fast. Again, for a family sedan.


...so you're waiting for a $200K Porsche or are you against electric cars across the board? Who's to say the Porsche will even be any good. It won't even be available for at least 4 more years. And their own numbers don't sound all that impressive.
It looked like something that wasn't purely a concept at the show, but now Porsche has officially greenlit the Mission E for production. We won't have to wait long to see it, either. The company promises it will be ready to go by the end of the decade.

As for the specifics, Porsche says it will have 600 horsepower and will be able to hit 60 mph in less than 3.5 seconds. The production Mission E's range should be over 300 miles, too. If anything, it seems like Porsche is trying to duplicate Tesla's success.

[novicius]

Oh I'm all-in on Tesla's dominance. :up: :up:

I just wanted to ask SLM the question in a respectful manner.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Until the day formula E cars can actually compete with formula 1 cars on track, all these comparisons are just for fun...

[Kchrpm]

Racing in general is just for fun (and profiting off that fun).

[thesameguy]

If anything, it seems like Porsche is trying to duplicate Tesla's success.

The hilarity is Porsche saying "What you're doing right now is no good, just give us til 2020 and we will definitely do better than you are in 2016."

:lol:

Four more years of R&D coupled with invaluable data gathering from cars on the road should put Tesla in a pretty remarkable position. Assuming they're still in business. ;)

[overpowered]

Racing in general is just for fun (and profiting off that fun).:up:

[overpowered]

Exactly... The model S isn't even meant to be a super-fast sports car. They aren't trying to compete with Porsche. It just so happens that they can make a family sedan that has a go-fast button. :lol: Even the base model is still really fast. Again, for a family sedan.It goes fast off the line. The speed advantage in electric motors is that you have all the torque as soon as you go above zero rpm's. Its top end speed is not all that impressive because it doesn't have the gearing that high end sports cars have. It doesn't need that gearing to be a good family sedan. Its top end speed is more than enough for driving around on public roads. It's just a bit less than ideal for a race track. Most people don't drive on a race track.

That's one of the funny things with fast sports cars. Most people who own them will never drive them all out, because it's illegal any place but a race track and it tends to be dangerous anywhere unless they have better skills than most people who own fast sports cars actually have. It's mostly about the look and the sound. Fast off the line can be nice getting on the freeway. Other than that, it's all for show.

[balki]

Until the day formula E cars can actually compete with formula 1 cars on track, all these comparisons are just for fun...
agreed

Add to that until Tesla can make a profit and the average driver can deal with the electric charging pitfalls ...

Maybe throw in some electric aircraft in there as well (I admire what Musk has accomplished, though)

[Crazed_Insanity]

Electric airplanes are perhaps too much to ask for now... :p

Elon is indeed amazing with not only Tesla, but also SpaceX... blowing industry peers out of the water with their product price and performance. Previously NASA and government in general wanted the aerospace firms to become better, faster and cheaper..., we were like, yeah right. How the hell can anyone do it better, faster and with lower price? Well, SpaceX did it. (But their books aren't public, so it's hard to say if they're absorbing losses..., but at least they're delivering with their products)

So Anyway, are these companies sustainable in the longterm? We'll have to wait and see...

With regard to Tesla, I personally really don't see a need to rush to make it a mass market brand... should just continue to remain an indisputed market leading premium brand until it makes some profit..., then branch off into make it for the masses..., but anyway, Elon is the legendary visionary... so he should know what he's doing....

[Dicknose]

Sorry, but as far as I'm concerned, all these OMG acceleration figures from the Tesla come with a big fat asterisk next to them because these acceleration modes can't be repeated over and over again as often as you want. Apparently there is some cooling time that needs to take place between accelerations. Due to this, I'm sorry, I can't consider this car to be on the same engineering level as a vehicle that can accelerate like this over and over, as much as you want. Clearly, accelerating this car this way stresses the powertrain past the point where it can consistently operate, so I can't really consider it to be a legitimate performance figure.
So you think the same of turbo models with an over boost? They will give more power but only for a few seconds and then need to cool down.
And plenty of cars get reports of repeated launches cooking bits and performance dropping or even the car going to limp mode.
Most cars are simply not designed to handle extended/repeated full throttle.

[Sad, little man]

I take issue with saying the Model S is almost as fast as a LaFerrari or a 918 and faster than many other supercars which presumably can accelerate to their rated specs as frequently as you want, within reason. It cheapens the engineering accomplishments of the other automakers who made vehicles that are designed to perform at those levels consistently, not just as a party trick.

[Freude am Fahren]

Just found out my uncle already ordered a P100D to replace his P85D.

[novicius]

Jeebus. :lol: :up:

[overpowered]

as frequently as you want, within reason.:lol:

[Freude am Fahren]

Jeebus. :lol: :up:

This is the same uncle who told me he wished he had bought a 918 when he had the opportunity. No amount of Tesla's will make me forgive him.

[MR2 Fan]

again...I want to buy this P100D just to take out all of the un-necessary weight and do some 1/4 mile runs....once I'm rich

[Yw-slayer]

I take issue with saying the Model S is almost as fast as a LaFerrari or a 918 and faster than many other supercars which presumably can accelerate to their rated specs as frequently as you want, within reason. It cheapens the engineering accomplishments of the other automakers who made vehicles that are designed to perform at those levels consistently, not just as a party trick.

But it is faster. So there. :lol:

[21Kid]

I take issue with saying the Model S is almost as fast as a LaFerrari or a 918 and faster than many other supercars which presumably can accelerate to their rated specs as frequently as you want, within reason. It cheapens the engineering accomplishments of the other automakers who made vehicles that are designed to perform at those levels consistently, not just as a party trick.Again, the other side of the coin is that the Model S is an engineering marvel. Doing what it does, while not even trying to compete with the million dollar super cars. I'd say that's quite an accomplishment for a family sedan. :lol:

Just the fact that it can do it... even once every 3 minutes (or whatever the cool down is), is an amazing feat.

[TheBenior]

But it is faster. So there. :lol:

False.

214 mph>155 mph

Also, until proven that Tesla was as pessimistic as Porsche, it is also not quicker, as 2.2 sec < 2.5 sec

[novicius]

I'm with Kid here -- it is both fucking quick and fast enough. :lol:

Stop fucking around with the speed shit, Elon, and focus on both extending the range and shortening the recharging time. :rolleyes:

[Godson]

:lol:

Something something something, gift horse on the mouth...

[thesameguy]

I think he's doing all of that.

Unfortunately battery technology hasn't made any major leaps in a really long time - I've heard a decade tossed around. Existing technologies have become cheaper, but there is no increased energy density which means more anything costs more weight and more space. We've about wrung everything we can out of AC motor technology and controller efficiency... we need denser ways to store electricity. Things like graphene promise to do that, but that's serious spaceman stuff! :)

[21Kid]

Doubling battery power of consumer electronics (http://news.mit.edu/2016/lithium-metal-batteries-double-power-consumer-electronics-0817)

New lithium metal batteries could make smartphones, drones, and electric cars last twice as long.
SolidEnergy Systems has developed an “anode-free” lithium metal battery with several material advances that make it twice as energy-dense, yet just as safe and long-lasting as the lithium ion batteries used in smartphones, electric cars, wearables, drones, and other devices.
“With two-times the energy density, we can make a battery half the size, but that still lasts the same amount of time, as a lithium ion battery. Or we can make a battery the same size as a lithium ion battery, but now it will last twice as long,” says Hu, who co-invented the battery at MIT and is now CEO of SolidEnergy.
The battery essentially swaps out a common battery anode material, graphite, for very thin, high-energy lithium-metal foil, which can hold more ions — and, therefore, provide more energy capacity. Chemical modifications to the electrolyte also make the typically short-lived and volatile lithium metal batteries rechargeable and safer to use. Moreover, the batteries are made using existing lithium ion manufacturing equipment, which makes them scalable.soon. ;)

SolidEnergy plans to bring the batteries to smartphones and wearables in early 2017, and to electric cars in 2018. But the first application will be drones, coming this November.

[novicius]

To hit those acceleration times there is some serious beefing-up of components going on. Once an electric car can do 0-60 MPH in under 5 seconds, focus on lightweight design for better driving dynamics and longer range, is all.

The argument could be made that wealthy buyers maybe wouldn't buy-in if the Model S wasn't as fast as it is, which I can accept... I guess. :lol:

[novicius]

This is the same uncle who told me he wished he had bought a 918 when he had the opportunity. No amount of Tesla's will make me forgive him.
Tell him to sack up and buy an older Tesla Roadster to go along with his Model S. :D

Then have him send it to Tesla for the 400-mile range upgrade. :rawk:

[SportWagon]

I saw a red Model S today at the same parking lot where I saw the white one the other week. I saw the front first, and it had no license plate, so I wondered what jurisdiction it was from. But it turned out to be Ontario. Didn't seem to have a plate on the dashboard or anything, so I'm not sure why it doesn't have a front plate.

So I searched...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/canada-are-you-guys-mounting-your-front-license-plates.41415/

[21Kid]

I never attached mine, although I was supposed to. Went' 4+ years before I was pulled over. And when that happened, it was because I was in a Rural town and he was concerned because City Folk like to steal them for the stickers. Until he saw my license and that I was from the city. Then he let me go without even asking me to put it on.

[Kchrpm]

Ohio requires them as well, but when I ordered replacement plates (my rear one had been stolen), they only sent me one. I put it on my rear (and had a Bengals novelty plate on the front) and was never pulled over for it.

[MR2 Fan]

I'm with Kid here -- it is both fucking quick and fast enough. :lol:

Stop fucking around with the speed shit, Elon, and focus on both extending the range and shortening the recharging time. :rolleyes:

They DID extend the range :rolleyes:

Anyway, how many miles can you go if you're flooring it constantly I wonder

[novicius]

Yes the new P100D has a max range of 315 miles.

But for a vehicle that can't refuel quickly, a 500 mile range would be of higher importance than making it even faster IMO. :rolleyes:

[Kchrpm]

But I don't think you can exchange one for the other. I don't think they're going in there and saying "alright guys, do we work on Ludicrous Mode or longer range?"

I think Ludicrous mode is just an after effect of the incremental battery/motor improvements they're making. I don't think they're making any major changes just to allow for it, they're just doing a "what if we had a button that lets you go MAX POWAH?"

[Godson]

I haven't had a front plate on anything since 2007.

[novicius]

To hit those acceleration times there is some serious beefing-up of components going on. Once an electric car can do 0-60 MPH in under 5 seconds, focus on lightweight design for better driving dynamics and longer range, is all.

The argument could be made that wealthy buyers maybe wouldn't buy-in if the Model S wasn't as fast as it is, which I can accept... I guess. :lol:
Make it lighter, not beefier.

[21Kid]

That's not what people want...
They want airbags, 10" LCD Touchscreens, extra safety zones, miles of glass, etc...

[Kchrpm]

I don't think they're making it beefier...most of the weight is involved in the batteries and safety/luxury goods, as Kid pointed out.

[novicius]

To accelerate from 0 to 60 MPH in 2.5 seconds repeatedly and under warranty, that means some beefy (read: heavier than necessary) components.

But it's not what Tesla is doing, ostensibly because speed > range when it comes to sales.

[21Kid]

Range > speed will probably matter more with the 3 than the S.

[Kchrpm]

When you don't have a gearbox, as such, I'm not sure that it does. I'm no Tesla expert, though.

And I don't think speed trumps range at ALL in the market the Model S is in.

[Freude am Fahren]

Yeah, as far as the batteries, range is a function of capacity, acceleration how quickly you can suck the power out of the battery. I may be wrong, but I think that's how it works, and they are separate engineering problems. I don't think that the two figures are as closely related as they are in ICE. I don't think if they let the Model S just be able to do 0-60 in 4 seconds that they would automatically be able to find 100 miles of range, years of R/D included.

I've always wondered about the gear box thing. Obviously you could get higher speeds, but would it have a big effect on range? Is the car that much less efficient at 80 vs. 40 mph?

[21Kid]

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/autopia/2012/05/graph1.jpg
more here (https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-s-efficiency-and-range?_ga=1.127982027.637445902.1472048624)

[novicius]

Yeah, as far as the batteries, range is a function of capacity, acceleration how quickly you can suck the power out of the battery. I may be wrong, but I think that's how it works, and they are separate engineering problems. I don't think that the two figures are as closely related as they are in ICE. I don't think if they let the Model S just be able to do 0-60 in 4 seconds that they would automatically be able to find 100 miles of range, years of R/D included.
The power draw under acceleration is one component -- weight is another (and this is my 4th post saying as much, fellas).

[novicius]

And I don't think speed trumps range at ALL in the market the Model S is in.
Ok -- I was only saying that I could see that being a reason why the Model S is a Hellcat-smashing wonder car vs simply a luxurious and non-roaming polluter.

Fine by me if speed doesn't equal sales, it only helps my point beyond Elon wants to crush ICE egos. :lol:

[overpowered]

To accelerate from 0 to 60 MPH in 2.5 seconds repeatedly and under warranty, that means some beefy (read: heavier than necessary) components.The extra weight is in the batteries. The extra range comes from the extra batteries just like the extra speed.

Yes, at 4600-4900 pounds, the Model S is no light weight. At least its center of gravity is very low.

[novicius]

OP! As purveyor of all things high MPG, doesn't it stand to reason that the Model S gives up some power storage capacity (aka "range") by adding the weight of a beefy AWD system capable of reliably launching the car to 10-second quarter mile passes?

Nevermind the weight of extra batteries, I'm just talking about the *capability* to launch hard on hardware that can only add to the weight of the car.

Looking at the graph that Kid posted doesn't really help since we're debating the effect of acceleration (stop-and-go traffic as it were), not constant speeds.

The mileage (MPGe) of the Model S translates to 102 miles City / 105 miles Highway (whatever this means). So it's not like acceleration is free, stop-and-go does impact range.

[overpowered]

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/autopia/2012/05/graph1.jpgInteresting that peak range is at a higher speed for the Model S (21mph?) than it is for the Roadster (17mph?). While I suppose other factors might be involved, it seems to suggest that the Model S has better aero than the Roadster.

Air resistance will eat your power and it goes up proportional to velocity. No real way around that except maybe always drive with a tail wind :p.

Even at 65mph (fastest speed limit in populated areas in SoCal) the Model S P85 is still over 250 miles on a charge. That's way more than enough for most people most of the time. Still not great for long trips but stopping to eat and recharge the batteries every 3-4 hours is not that bad.

[Kchrpm]

Carlo's argument is that, coming from the go-fast world, when you want to go fast you have to build everything really strong. There's a lot of extra weight in beefing up a vehicle for massive amounts of power, even if the car is already heavy.

But the things you're building really strong are in the engine and the drivetrain, for the most part, and they're things that I don't believe the Model S really has in the traditional sense. The things that are traditionally required mods for a drag strip monster are just not things that I think Tesla is worried about putting undue stress on before the battery gets to hot and has to be put in limp/cool-down mode. Hell, last I checked, a Model S can't even finish a whole lap of the Ring in non-Ludicrous mode before it goes into cool-down.

[novicius]

The second motor to drive the front wheels has to weigh something. The beefier axles and brakes and rims also factor into the weight, obviously.

But my questions about extending range really point to a more basic question: WHY is the Model S built to be so quick??

The answer of "because they can" is unsatisfying. :lol:

[overpowered]

OP! As purveyor of all things high MPG, doesn't it stand to reason that the Model S gives up some power storage capacity (aka "range") by adding the weight of a beefy AWD system capable of reliably launching the car to 10-second quarter mile passes?Sure. There's no free lunch here but the extra weight adds more to the range than it costs in range. It also only hurts the range in take-off and hill climbing. Cruising on level ground it costs nothing and it even helps a bit on a downhill (but less than it hurts on an uphill).

The big battery is not really there to make it take off fast. That's just a bonus. You need to put the car into a non-default software mode to even do the fast launch. The fast launch is not the point of this car and never has been. It's a neat curiosity but it's not one of the significant reasons to choose this car over any other. I don't feel like looking up the normal mode launch time but I assume that it's still pretty quick. It probably isn't insane quick; competing with mid to upper 6 figure and higher cost super cars but more than enough for getting on a freeway in fast but heavy traffic on a short ramp.

The AWD drive system helps the fast launch but again, I don't think that that's the main reason for it being there. It's the traction in general. Subaru and some others make some wimpy cars with AWD for a reason and that reason has nothing to do with fast launch times.

[Freude am Fahren]

I don't doubt there's extra weight in the car in order to go faster, but I doubt it would have a very significant enough impact on range. Don't forget weight also equals slow, so it's not like they don't care about weight. The front motors add about 170lb. Even if the beefiness of components to make more speed add double that, I doubt you'd see anywhere as significant an impact on range as you do on speed. At 65mph what would the added range by losing 6% weight? If they could replace that 300lb or so with pure batteries, that'd be one thing, but I think they are also space limited in that regard.

[overpowered]

The second motor to drive the front wheels has to weigh something. The beefier axles and brakes and rims also factor into the weight, obviously.

But my questions about extending range really point to a more basic question: WHY is the Model S built to be so quick??

The answer of "because they can" is unsatisfying. :lol:I suppose. Those beefier axles and brakes and such help with the durability. If they didn't do that then they'd have to limit the power output to keep the car from breaking. Remember the gearbox debacle of the Roadster? I'm thinking that they don't want to repeat that.

The car is going to be heavy even without a beefy suspension system. Better to make the suspension able to handle it day in and day out.

[overpowered]

I don't doubt there's extra weight in the car in order to go faster, but I doubt it would have a very significant enough impact on range. Don't forget weight also equals slow, so it's not like they don't care about weight. The front motors add about 100lb. Even if the beefiness of components to make more speed add double that, I doubt you'd see anywhere as significant an impact on range as you do on speed. At 65mph what would the added range by losing 5% weight? if they could replace that 200lb or so with pure batteries, that'd be one thing, but I think they are also space limited in that regard.Extra weight reduces acceleration and limits cornering and climbing. It doesn't hurt (eventually) gaining or maintaining speed in a straight line on level ground.

[Kchrpm]

The second motor to drive the front wheels has to weigh something. The beefier axles and brakes and rims also factor into the weight, obviously.

But my questions about extending range really point to a more basic question: WHY is the Model S built to be so quick??

The answer of "because they can" is unsatisfying. :lol:

The second motor to drive the front wheels isn't for Ludicrous mode, it's for all wheel drive in general. One could presume that the beefier brakes are a requirement of the base weight of the vehicle, and the beefier rims are a requirement of the high-end market they're aiming this vehicle at. However beefy the axles are is likely determined by those needs more than a Ludicrous mode that they expect most drivers *might* use once.

"Because they can" is EXACTLY why luxury vehicles do any number of things. Are you going to tell me you can go up to any $100k+ luxury vehicle and everything you point at will have a reasonable, functional use?

[novicius]

But 10-second quarter mile passes sells cars?? Seriously?! :lol: :lol: :lol:

(Also Keith you were the one who said you don't think speed trumps range. :thppt: )

All I can really think is that since they need ever bigger batteries for range and bigger batteries equal bigger instantaneous discharge, Musk ordered his engineers to harness it instead of putting software nannies on it.

[thesameguy]

Efficiency definitely drops with motor speed, and that relationship is a function of motor design. You can design an electric motor for big torque or high revs, but they are somewhat on opposite ends of spectrum. With that choice comes decisions about safety, efficiency, thermal management, etc. I believe the general consensus in the EV industry is that an EV that can deliver a good sub-100mph range is where you want to be, and you can do that with a 1-speed gear reduction set. No point in adding extra weight and complexity - I am sure everyone remembers the Roadster blowing up the 2-speed boxes. Everyone walked away from that smarter. Giving an electric car a big top speed is a major engineering challenge that probably isn't going to sell more EVs. No reason to answer a question nobody asked.

I think the Tesla's acceleration numbers are critical to its sales. I do think 2.5s 0-60 is every bit as important as range. Those crazy performance numbers get people in the door. If you said "200 mile range and 20 second 0-60" people wouldn't even come see you. But 200 mile range AND 0-60 IN 2.5 SECONDS is shocking enough to make people forget about the first statistic. That's not to suggest people would buy a Tesla with a 50 mile range - only that both are very important. Since it's much easier to deliver rapid acceleration than long range, Tesla is just playing to their strengths. Don't forget they are selling $100,000 cars. Their customers are people who could buy just about anything they want. Being able to smoke the direct-competition S class and 7-series gives Tesla buyers something to feel good about in lieu of being able to drive cross country. It's the package that draws people in and keeps the S in the media. Musk is playing his cards like a pro.

[Freude am Fahren]

But 10-second quarter mile passes sells cars?? Seriously?! :lol: :lol: :lol:

Actually it does. The S65, M5, RS8, etc. don't offer much you can't get on the non performance models in terms of luxury, and in many cases, they are louder, less comfortable and have much less range. I know that's different because you can't yet fill up a battery in 2 minutes, but it does sell cars. I have no doubt my uncle probably wouldn't have bought one if it had 528 performance figures. And there are many like him.

[Godson]

Efficiency definitely drops with motor speed, and that relationship is a function of motor design. You can design an electric motor for big torque or high revs, but they are somewhat on opposite ends of spectrum. With that choice comes decisions about safety, efficiency, thermal management, etc. I believe the general consensus in the EV industry is that an EV that can deliver a good sub-100mph range is where you want to be, and you can do that with a 1-speed gear reduction set. No point in adding extra weight and complexity - I am sure everyone remembers the Roadster blowing up the 2-speed boxes. Everyone walked away from that smarter. Giving an electric car a big top speed is a major engineering challenge that probably isn't going to sell more EVs. No reason to answer a question nobody asked.

I think the Tesla's acceleration numbers are critical to its sales. I do think 2.5s 0-60 is every bit as important as range. Those crazy performance numbers get people in the door. If you said "200 mile range and 20 second 0-60" people wouldn't even come see you. But 200 mile range AND 0-60 IN 2.5 SECONDS is shocking enough to make people forget about the first statistic. That's not to suggest people would buy a Tesla with a 50 mile range - only that both are very important. Since it's much easier to deliver rapid acceleration than long range, Tesla is just playing to their strengths. Don't forget they are selling $100,000 cars. Their customers are people who could buy just about anything they want. Being able to smoke the direct-competition S class and 7-series gives Tesla buyers something to feel good about in lieu of being able to drive cross country. It's the package that draws people in and keeps the S in the media. Musk is playing his cards like a pro.

The key with Tesla and the rapid acceleration goes hand-in-hand with its range. The thing that makes the cars so special is it's ability to dump massive amount of energy, and recharge energy very fast.

If you look at the model s 65, the range is less than the 70, 75, so-on-and-so-forth.

The number designates the better energy reserve. I haven't read a bunch about the differences in the motors, but I'm sure they are different in the way they consume energy. However, increase in ability to consume more energy does not decrease it's efficiency when not being used. This applies to electric motors. It CAN apply to ICE also, see Corvette c5, c6, c7. All of these generations have seen many cars with big power, big engines, pull 30+ mpgs.

Acceleration = range in EVs within reason.

That's why the p85 does better range than the P85D. Less energy draw by not being AWD. Still uses the exact same motor in rear.

I'm rambling at this point but I feel I've made my point. Or not.

[Godson]

Also. Cross country is completely doable in a model s. In fact, tasks had done it with 2 last year I believe.

Super charging stations are all over the place across I70.

Range anxiety is a thing of the past.

[Kchrpm]

But 10-second quarter mile passes sells cars?? Seriously?! :lol: :lol: :lol:

(Also Keith you were the one who said you don't think speed trumps range. :thppt: )

No, it doesn't. Any number of things on luxury cars by themselves don't sell cars. Rattling off a bunch of "whoa, it has this too" or "wow, it does that too" is what gets people to spend $120k instead of $80k. The P100D's biggest competitor is probably the P75D.

[novicius]

I think the Tesla's acceleration numbers are critical to its sales. I do think 2.5s 0-60 is every bit as important as range. Those crazy performance numbers get people in the door. If you said "200 mile range and 20 second 0-60" people wouldn't even come see you. But 200 mile range AND 0-60 IN 2.5 SECONDS is shocking enough to make people forget about the first statistic. That's not to suggest people would buy a Tesla with a 50 mile range - only that both are very important. Since it's much easier to deliver rapid acceleration than long range, Tesla is just playing to their strengths.
Agreed -- which is why I originally said for corporate justification "speed > range" -- the acceleration is *so* shocking (heh) that it makes headlines. It feeds sales.

Undoubtedly the Roadster gearbox woes also played a part internally in adding beefy half-shafts and AWD/adding a 2nd motor.

[Godson]

Currently cross shopping an f150 platinum ecoboost vs a lease on a 60 vs a lease on an 85d.

Figuring gas into the equation, they are all very close price wise. Roughly 700/mo with gas and payment.

I'd lose the ability to tow and haul stuff, but i. Don't know how often do that. The overall vehicle would be nicer on the Tesla.

Thoughts?

[Fogelhund]

Do you think it's going to be Ford, GM, a foreign automaker, or someone else completely who eventually buys out Tesla when they end up in Financial trouble from expanding too quick?

[Godson]

Good question. I don't honestly know. I think ford is the one to benefit the most.

[retsmah]

If you guys haven't seen, the second motor on the D versions actually improves the range of the car. I don't know much about electric motors (despite having worked on some electric race cars!) but the explanation Tesla gives is that you can setup the front motor to have it's peak efficiency at a different speed than the rear motor, and for regular driving/cruising send power to whichever one is more efficient at the speed you are traveling.

An interesting thing with electric cars is that the motors themselves are pretty light, and you can have a really powerful motor with not much weight or size penalty, just a matter of the battery and controllers being able to supply the power to it. The fastest electric car from 0-60 in the world right now is a Formula Student car (at 1.5 seconds!). It's been a few years since I've been to a competition but back when I was competing the electric cars were crazy fast in acceleration, and right there with the combustion cars in autocross (or way faster in the wet with all wheel drive), but when you got to the endurance race they were quite a bit slower as they didn't have the battery capacity to run full tilt for a whole race.

[balki]

sounds like the ideal ride for that Dodge Charger driving guy in F&F who lives his life one quarter mile at a time

[Crazed_Insanity]

If you guys haven't seen, the second motor on the D versions actually improves the range of the car. I don't know much about electric motors (despite having worked on some electric race cars!) but the explanation Tesla gives is that you can setup the front motor to have it's peak efficiency at a different speed than the rear motor, and for regular driving/cruising send power to whichever one is more efficient at the speed you are traveling.

An interesting thing with electric cars is that the motors themselves are pretty light, and you can have a really powerful motor with not much weight or size penalty, just a matter of the battery and controllers being able to supply the power to it. The fastest electric car from 0-60 in the world right now is a Formula Student car (at 1.5 seconds!). It's been a few years since I've been to a competition but back when I was competing the electric cars were crazy fast in acceleration, and right there with the combustion cars in autocross (or way faster in the wet with all wheel drive), but when you got to the endurance race they were quite a bit slower as they didn't have the battery capacity to run full tilt for a whole race.

I'm not that knowledgeable with electric motors either, but back when I was involved in our school's solar car racing project... our car has 2 motor controlled speeds... if memory serves me... I think in the serial mode(gives you higher voltage) allows the car to go fast... and the parallel mode(more current) gives the car more torque for acceleration... so I think one could alter efficiency of the motor at different speeds using controller, rather than the need for having 2 motors..., but I suppose Tesla engineers could've designed totally different motors to further maximize these efficiencies at whatever speeds. It is weird how the added motor increased range. I always thought the D versions just have bigger battery packs...

Anyway, other than tires and brakes and battery pack(which can be easily changed out), along with the remote update feature, few more years down the road, perhaps it's a better idea to just purchase a used S rather than a new 3?

[overpowered]

Another Model S driver dies but this time auto-pilot was not engaged. The driver was going over 155km/h.

http://futurism.com/tesla-model-s-driver-dies-after-crashing-into-a-tree-in-the-netherlands/

[MR2 Fan]

Teslas now getting full self driving technology

https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware/?utm_campaign=GL_Blog_101916&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social

[Freude am Fahren]

-Drives down the middle of two way street (0:35)
-Looks like it pulls out on to two lane roads past the first lane (0:48, 2:22 & 3:10 into oncoming lane!)
-anti-merger? (2:05)

[Crazed_Insanity]

Pretty impressive! I think you're just nitpicking about lane keeping..., hopefully they have sufficient sensors to detect oncoming traffic in the parking lot? At least they showed the car can recognize pedestrians in the parking lot.

I think they also sped up the video a bit... so the rapid motion was causing me to be overly anxious... hopefully in real time the auto driver will be driving much slower than in the video. Otherwise my stress level probably would end up high when NOT driving...

[Crazed_Insanity]

Tesla fighter coming!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhJeYC8mhoQ

This is just a prototype to compete with ModelX..., wonder when they'll actually be able to produce it!

[Kchrpm]

:| http://jalopnik.com/tesla-model-s-batteries-violently-explode-in-fatal-cras-1788561054


The crash sent battery cells “firing off almost like projectiles around the rescuers,” the Indianapolis Fire Department told the news site. You can see it yourself in a shocking video of the crash scene.

[novicius]

Elon: “If they were using Autopilot they would still be alive”
Truth.

[Crazed_Insanity]

It takes a lot of energy to move a 2 ton vehicle hundreds of miles... whether it's gas tank or battery pack... if ignited after high speed crash, things will get ugly.

Anyway, I wonder why is jalopnik.com always on Tesla's case. It seems that they always have an exclusive breaking news of problems of Tesla to report.

[Kchrpm]

If you were to read the article, you would see that they did discuss that.


It’s worth mentioning that, in the press conference above, Jones talks about how fires like these happen when there are high speed collisions, regardless of fuel source, saying:


With any vehicle collision, regardless of its... power... be it gasoline, or hybrid or pure electric like the Tesla is, you have the potential for violent collision and all that damage... that’s not unique to the accident last night.

They found an interesting car-related video that they could write a story about, and did. They wrote a similar story when there was a video of lithium ion batteries exploding at NASA's JPL: http://gizmodo.com/this-is-why-you-should-take-lithium-ion-battery-fires-v-1788281947#_ga=1.117206854.170454059.1458833089 . I don't see that as having it out for Tesla, but maybe they do and I just haven't noticed.

[MR2 Fan]

Elon's tweet from today

"Looks like the Model S P100D Easter egg will allow it to do 0 to 60 mph in 2.4 sec and a 10.6 sec 1/4 mile via software update next month"

[21Kid]

:rawk:

[novicius]

Slowly inching up to the drivetrain's limits? I wonder what would break with a simple addition of slicks? :D

[thesameguy]

OTOH, what would be improved? is there faster than 2.4 seconds?

[21Kid]

Not yet... Even the newest $2.5mil Bugatti doesn't go faster than that.

Who does 0-62mph the quickest?
1. Bugatti Chiron - sub 2.5s
2. Porsche 918 - 2.5s
= Bugatti Veyron Super Sport - 2.5s
3. McLaren P1 - 2.8s
= Koenigsegg Regera 2.8s
4. LaFerrari - 2.9s
*Hennessey doesn’t provide a 0-62mph quote, but a 0-60mph quote of 2.4s

[Freude am Fahren]

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p480x480/15391095_1361974133859728_865909206855844346_n.png ?oh=f546be6055380d1bdae5a1662af33733&oe=58BA3D26

[Crazed_Insanity]

:lol:

[balki]

Tesla Model S P100D
That 0-60 time in 2.28 seconds (with a NHRA style 1-foot rollout)

Motor Trend prepared its test car this way: First, it made sure the Tesla was running the most recent firmware (v8.0 release 2.52.22). In the car, select the Settings > Acceleration menu. The car warns of accelerated wear of motor, transmission, and battery; the driver then chooses between buttons labeled, “No, I want my Mommy,” or “Yes, bring it on!”
Is that a Wolfenstein 3D reference?

[thesameguy]

It's gotta be! :lol:

[Crazed_Insanity]

I remember reading somewhere that Musk would play that game after hours with his entire office sometimes...

[Yw-slayer]

Tons of Model Xs on the road now. Saw about 7 today.

[Dicknose]

Really should go and test drive one. They had a pop-up style display at my local mall. Had a nice chat to the (cute young) lady running it.
Not that I need another car, but think it would be interesting to experience.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Coworker leased the cheapest modelX thru his wife's business... The experience hasn't been all that great. The poor fit and finish for a nearly $100k car sucked but was expected for a brand new car... The the occasional gull wing door problems were also expected..., but he was really pissed at multiple AC failures. That wasn't expected. Tesla was nice enough to give him a top of the line p100 loaner with only 200 miles on it. Funny thing is even that has little issues such as folding mirror failed to return to its position...

I hope to one day own a tesla too, but for now, expect some hiccups in theses experiences... ;)

[Random]

Drove a 75 (RWD, single motor) around the block the other day.


Acceleration of just the regular single motor version is pretty legit.
Regeneration is a very effective brake.
This is not a car that your mom and dad that don't like smartphones are going to like. There are a shitload of buttons, physical and virtual.
Autopilot is definitely "in beta," as advertised. It didn't really like suburban streets: kept nibbling towards the centerline and then over correcting towards the sidewalk. Car owner said it can be confused by semis in the lane next to you, too.
I could totally drive one as a daily, but it's out of my price range. Owner is getting his as a discounted lease for being an employee.

[thesameguy]

When we were coming back from Colfax on Sunday we got passed by an S - owner was leaning back in the front seat petting his dog which was sitting on his lap. Dogs love autopilot!

[Crazed_Insanity]

Random, perhaps you should consider a certified pre-own Model S? They are down to about $30~40k-ish... which should be affordable to engineers like us? ;)

With free super charging grand-father into these cars..., I'm itching to get one actually...

Main reasons why I don't want to risk it is reliability..., but they have 2yr 100k mile warranty which might help alleviate a bit of my concern for 2 years...

The other reason I heard is parts availability, in case of accidents, not only are we limited to certain body shops, but parts may be very difficult to come by since they're already straining to make new cars as it is...

Lastly, do I really want to put down $40k for an used car? (A 4~5 yr old Model S is still way technologically sophisticated than most new cars though...)

Anyway, I'm just gong to wait and see. For sure new ones are out of our range probably, but used ones are certainly within reach. Probably easier to reach than the Model 3s for now...

https://www.tesla.com/used?sort=price|asc

Currently the cheapest CPO Model S is at $46k, but I swear couple of months back I saw a high mileage P90 for $38k!

[Yw-slayer]

Random, perhaps you should consider a certified pre-own Model S? They are down to about $30~40k-ish... which should be affordable to engineers like us? ;)

If only those were the prices here.

[novicius]

Tesla is already losing money on every car they make, they should push out a Scion xB/Nissan Cube sized one for under $20K. ;)

[Crazed_Insanity]

These already exist.

Kia Soul EV... if you consider the federal credit $7500 and CA credit $2500, it's a $20k car..., but for only 100 miles of range.

For >200 miles, you'll need a Chevy Bolt. But then minus the tax credits, it'll probably be a $25k car.

There are no figures for the Soul EV, but Chevy Bolt sold about 4000 units from Jan~Apr and Model S sold 7000 units thru the same period. Not really sure if these #s are production limited or real demand of these vehicles..., but there's no reason to believe that if Bolt were built by Tesla, they'll be able to produce significantly more than GM nor is it safe to assume demand for Tesla Bolt will jump thru the roof...

However, to be fair, Bolt isn't available in all 50 states yet... so probably need to give it sometime to see. Chevy Volt doesn't have the same availability problem, but is only matching Model S sales #s...

So no way Tesla can make more money in this market now IMHO. They need to learn to make money with the $40k Model 3 first before entering into the mass produced econobox market I think...

Considering Tesla's built quality issues with the Model S and X, I can't imagine how they are going to mass produce significantly more Model 3's without quality problems.

[stephenb]

Saw a Tesla model S earlier this week with a great number plate for the UK - FA55 TEV

[Yw-slayer]

The Model 3 should be a simpler car, and if they focus on fit and finish there shouldn't be as many issues. In contrast, the X is clearly over-designed. More crap to go wrong, in addition to fit and finish issues to worry about at the relevant price point.

[Drachen596]

Honestly i feel like Tesla is overextended right now. Musk keeps starting new stuff with however many companied he has instead of focusing on anything.

How far behind is the Model 3 right now?

[MR2 Fan]

Honestly i feel like Tesla is overextended right now. Musk keeps starting new stuff with however many companied he has instead of focusing on anything.

How far behind is the Model 3 right now?


via Twitter today:
Elon Musk

Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday


Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.


Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec

[Drachen596]

Skeptical.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Elon usually lies about his crazy original schedules, but he also usually delivers his crazy promises way before any competitor...

If we consider Bolt a real competitor to Model3, then this would be a rare case that he lost out to a competitor..., but then again, Bolt and Model3 are not really direct competitors...

[Drachen596]

In what way aren't they?

And honestly i feel there will be some sort of production snag that prevents the actual launch happening in 2017 for Tesla.

[Crazed_Insanity]

You talking about comparing Bolt vs 3?

They're only similar because of their ability to achieve more than 200 miles/charge and they're both under $40k. That's about it.

Otherwise it's like comparing Honda Fit to a Honda Civic sedan... Looks alone can make them worlds apart...

Anyway, production snag or not, I'm pretty confident that Elon will eventually deliver and Tesla will become one of the biggest companies in the world... surpassing Apple!

Just a matter of time... assuming Trump won't end the world first.

[Freude am Fahren]

The biggest thing Tesla has going for it is the Apple effect. Doesn't matter really how good it is, people want to be seen with them (in them in this case). They aren't at iPhone level, but maybe iPod. iPod was never the best portable music player, but it outsold everything because of image and marketing.

This analogy is kinda flawed in a bunch of ways, but mainly because the Model S was more like iPhone level of innovation, but came out first (roadster not withstanding, that could be considered the Newton :)).

[Crazed_Insanity]

I think the biggest thing Tesla has going for is the difficulty for copycats to copy their products. GM can only compete with numbers on paper, but in reality their cars can never be as cool as Teslas. The chinese are also having difficulties producing comparable knock offs for now, but as Tesla begin production in China, unless Elon guards his secrets and know hows well, I'm sure Chinese will eventually be able to make a copy with their cheaper and comparable version at least for its own market. They've already successfully copied rockets and commercial airplane, so surely EVs will be next, but probably only with government funding.

[Godson]

I think the biggest thing Tesla has going for is the difficulty for copycats to copy their products. GM can only compete with numbers on paper, but in reality their cars can never be as cool as Teslas. The chinese are also having difficulties producing comparable knock offs for now, but as Tesla begin production in China, unless Elon guards his secrets and know hows well, I'm sure Chinese will eventually be able to make a copy with their cheaper and comparable version at least for its own market. They've already successfully copied rockets and commercial airplane, so surely EVs will be next, but probably only with government funding.

Tesla released all of thier patents a few years ago.

[Crazed_Insanity]

I think the 'secret', or future vision, is in Elon's head and his 'know how' are his employees. The fact that Tesla openly shares their intellectually properties proves my point that it's hard to copy them. Main hurdle is probably just money. It probably took a lot of investment from companies like Apple to setup all the supplier chains in China. Once that's complete, chinese copycats can easily come up with decent phones and tablets that are way cheaper.

Right now, nobody's willing to invest that much initial money to build that many batteries and that many cars...

Faraday Future is probably the only company willing to spend so much money to follow Tesla, but I think it's clear that they're still way behind. They're having trouble raising enough money to build their factory to build their $150k car...

GM is the other main competitor trying, but even if they are successful, the GM Chevy name brand will never be able become as good as Tesla.

Anyway, more attempts the better. Tesla cannot and should not be the ONLY EV company. An industry cannot be supported by just a single company. Not that I'm afraid of monopoly, but I'm just worried that should Tesla encounter a misstep and goes bankrupt, it'll probably take us decades to have another go at a decent EV company. GM for sure will revert back to her old ways of doing things...

[21Kid]

The biggest thing Tesla has going for it is the Apple effect. Doesn't matter really how good it is, people want to be seen with them (in them in this case). They aren't at iPhone level, but maybe iPod. iPod was never the best portable music player, but it outsold everything because of image and marketing.

This analogy is kinda flawed in a bunch of ways, but mainly because the Model S was more like iPhone level of innovation, but came out first (roadster not withstanding, that could be considered the Newton :)). Beats by Dre



Tesla released all of thier patents a few years ago.:lol: I can only imagine how billi will try to justify this. Because he can never admit he's wrong. I bet he just interpreted it differently. ;)

[Dicknose]

Patents help, but they don't tell you how to manufacture it!
Often the secret is in how to make it, cheaply but with quality.

[Drachen596]

Bte LA Times had an article stating that theyre having trouble making the 100kw packs at their new battery factory.

[Kchrpm]

Patents help, but they don't tell you how to manufacture it!

Unless you also released the patent for the manufacturing technique.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Guys. Like I said, Tesla is not going to also release the money to help you build the plants necessary to build these cars.

EV tech isn't based on anything new or revolutionary, but it is a new industry and there's a huge financial/infrastructure hurdle to hop over. I believe that is the main reason why there aren't any successful chinese knockoffs.

As for GM and other existing car makers, perhaps they could benefit with the Tesla patents, but they still have to make the hard decision to whether to risk significant investment to build these cars in huge #s or not. Most of these bean counting companies will not take such a huge financial risk on EVs because what if they don't sell? And even if they do sell, it'll hurt their regular car sales! So it's a damned if you do and damned if you don't scenario for existing automakers... and most will probably just settle with building a small volume of them mainly for PR purposes and wait and see how Tesla is doing...

For example, I'm really dying to "subscribe" the new Hyundai Ioniq EV..., but according to dealers, Hyundai's only planning to build 200 of these for ALL of CA... and these subscriptions will ONLY be available in CA. Not entirely sure if this sales guy is for real or full of shit or not, but if true, Elon Musk really has nothing to worry about from the South Koreans. North Koreans are a different story. Kim might be accelerating SpaceX's effort to hurry up so humanity can move to Mars asap!

[Dicknose]

Other companies are going EV.
Porsche have a model S competitor in the works. They have a few hybrids now, but next year they will release the Mission E.
also say they want to move to a large percentage being electric, not sure if that also means sports cars.
Others are coming, see if Tesla have momentum going by then.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Just saw this today: https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2017/7/5/15921208/volvo-all-electric-by-2019
Volvo will stop making gas only cars by 2019!?!?! Wow!

Jaguar has a nice looking modelX type car coming soon!

Will be interesting to see how these cars play out.

How will these new cars affect tesla will be hard to predict, but this should be good for the EV industry in general.

[balki]

We are committed to electrification, so from 2019 all new Volvo car models will include an electric motor.
Seems like every car will come with at least an electric start-stop motor, all-hybrid and all-electric are years and decades away

[Dicknose]

What do you mean "start stop"?
Most stories on this say it's hybrid and full electric.

[Kchrpm]

Start/stop cars use an up-spec starter motor and normal battery system to allow the car to cut off when stopped and either start the engine immediately when the brake is released or pull away initially on just the starter motor. They don't include regenerative braking to my understanding, or provide additional thrust above very low speeds.

[Dicknose]

Ok!
Hard to tell just from press release, but it seems Volvo is aiming at hybrid or better. I doubt they are playing word games (look every car has a starter motor!)
This is a huge push by a company that has though of itself as an industry leader (think Volvo, think safety features)
And what Volvo does has usually ended up being common place in a few years.
While Volvo itself is a small player (even in Europe) it's a big thing in terms of their history and place in the industry.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Yep!

[Freude am Fahren]

Yeah Volvo and Mercedes have pretty much determined what becomes standard in cars regarding tech and safety.

[Crazed_Insanity]

It's interesting Volvo's simple announcement could hurt Tesla share values so much and it might have help their own stock values to go up...

Wondering if other car companies are taking note. Just announce something may be enough to destroy Tesla... and when Tesla goes bankrupted, then revert back to gas only cars... hope that won't happen...

[Dicknose]

The euro companies won't go backwards, countries are already saying they will ban sales of greenhouse cars in the future!

[balki]

What about commercial and industrial equipment? Doesn't seem like a diesel replacement is on the horizon.

[MR2 Fan]

What about commercial and industrial equipment? Doesn't seem like a diesel replacement is on the horizon.

https://electrek.co/2017/04/28/tesla-semi-elon-musk-teaser-image-all-electric-truck/

[balki]

I'm going to need a lot more than a teaser to think diesel tucks have any real competition in the next 20 years

[thesameguy]

Five years? Sure. 20 years seems ambitious.

[balki]

Trucks already can't carry full loads of dense cargo because of highway weight restrictions, having a heavier energy storage type only makes 20 years seem optimistic, I'd actually be surprised if electric cars and SUVs outsold their ICE counterparts (including mild hybrids) before 2037:
The Bolt and model 3 still don't pose a real threat to anything other then themselves (the Prius is nearly $10k cheaper).

[Drachen596]

A full load of fuel will give something like 600+ miles to a semi truck while hauling up to 80,000lbs. What do you have to do for an electric truck to match that?

The 85kWh packs in the Model S weigh 1200 pounds. Based on the stuff we ship at work, thats about 3 cubes of cereal depending on variety and less than a cube of cans or flour. Thats the pack that gives 265 miles in the Model S.(the 85kWh one weighs between 4600 and 4900lbs) how can you scale that up without severely affecting weight while keeping range. A driver CAN do 500 or 600 miles in a day of driving.(11 hour driving window within a 14 hour day)

[novicius]

Self-driving + solar cells on the trailer? When does wireless recharging come out? :assclown:

[Crazed_Insanity]

Solar is not going to work on these things... Maybe the Boring company will deliver freight to various cities in the future.

You guys are thinking far too much into the future... I'm just hoping EVs will actually survive... or at least have significant amount of market share... not just at <1% of current market share...

If Model 3 doesn't carve up significant market share, future of Tesla and maybe even EVs in general could be in jeopardy.

[dodint]

When does wireless recharging come out? :assclown:

heh

[thesameguy]

Trucks already can't carry full loads of dense cargo because of highway weight restrictions, having a heavier energy storage type only makes 20 years seem optimistic, I'd actually be surprised if electric cars and SUVs outsold their ICE counterparts (including mild hybrids) before 2037:
The Bolt and model 3 still don't pose a real threat to anything other then themselves (the Prius is nearly $10k cheaper).

One thing to bear in mind is that cheaper fuel (ie, electricity) can change the economies. To contrive a simple example, if electricity is 1/4 the cost of gasoline, you can afford to field three smaller vehicles to carry the same load and still make more money. Perhaps a fleet of physically smaller, more efficient vehicles means more point to last mile shipments and fewer point to point to last mile shipments. Maybe instead of huge batteries, fuel companies build a network of battery-swapping facilities and we build trucks that can go 4 hours per pack and then get swapped, ensuring drivers have breaks and such along the way. Electric trucks don't have to be a plug & play replacement, they give us the opportunity to rethink the entire model.

Battery construction will also change, and financial restrictions that face car builders needing to put together $35,000 passenger vehicles may not affect people building million dollar semis, or affect them in different ways - different packages, different materials. Different chemistries may also come into play - ten years ago, the Tesla Roadseter relied on lead acid batteries, but these days everything has switched to lithium ion. Maybe in another ten years we'll be able to scale out lithium polymer.

There are a lot of pieces in motion, a lot of money pushing these technologies. Certainly unlikely everything is going to change suddenly, but twenty years is a long time in technology.

[balki]

(mobile?) battery-swapping facilities will probably be mandatory for a while
LiPo is just not a big enough step forward, but if we get close to a commercially viable Lithium–air battery then it's game over for fossil fueled vehicles

I'd still bet Musk will send someone to Mars (in the 2040s, not 30s) before his cars or trucks make up 50% of new sales (short of some ICE ban or oil going up to $200/bbl)

[Drachen596]

Hybrid tech makes far more sense for big trucks right now that pure electric imo.

Electric vehicles arent going away any time soon. Big manufacturers are dumping money into it. Cars motorcycles delivery trucks. Everything

[thesameguy]

I could see California getting serious about legislation - we take truck emissions [overly] seriously. I could see Musk bending that tendency to his will.

If Musk is going to put someone on Mars in 2040, he's going to be doing a lot of work with graphene, and that's also a hell of a battery technology. Graphene EV batteries would be enormous.

[thesameguy]

Hybrid tech makes far more sense for big trucks right now that pure electric imo.

I'd agree with that. Onboard generators mean less weight borne for batteries, so that's an option.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Are you guys pretty sure that EVs are here to stay? So far the financial #s still don't make sense yet. Cost of EVs simply cannot beat IC cars if you consider life time cost...

Anyway, it'll definitely be interesting to see whether if Elon dominates to car market first or get his ass to Mars 1st.

[novicius]

Li-air batteries (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium–air_battery):


This is about 5 times greater than that of a commercial lithium-ion battery, and is sufficient to run a 2 ton fully electric vehicle (FEV) for ~500 km (310 miles) on one charge just using 60 kg of batteries.
Is this the real life? Or is this just fantasy?

[thesameguy]

Li-air batteries (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium–air_battery):


Is this the real life? Or is this just fantasy?

Already old news! Check out li-o2!

http://news.mit.edu/2016/new-lithium-oxygen-battery-greatly-improves-energy-efficiency-longevity-0725

Yeah, EVs are here to stay.

[Drachen596]

They are here to stay. The companies who have done the pioneering like Tesla have caught the attention of major manufacturers who are investing now.

The Bolt 500e and similar are the results so far. More are coming. Big rig makers are seeing the interest that the Nikola and Tesla semis have gotten. Yamaha is working on electric motorcycles. Even Harley is still playing with their livewire bikes.

[novicius]

...and Indian! :D

[Freude am Fahren]

I'm guessing that BMW and/or Mercedes will have their full electric, direct Tesla-competitor version of the 5/E series out by the end of the decade (or at least production begun).

The only thing really holding things back is charging infrastructure, I think.

The technology isn't ready to take over gas, but it is ready to play a serious second fiddle.

[novicius]

I just wish there were more range-assisted electric cars like the Volt vs power-assisted gas cars like the Prius model. :smh:

[Drachen596]

I'm more surprised we haven't seen a range assisted car with a diesel motor in it yet.
Although with VWs dieselgate and various other manufacturers being accused recently maybe I shouldn't be.

On the 2 wheeled electric front i think Indian needs to get an electric if they want to keep ahead of Harley. The Empluse is basically no more but an all Electric Scout might be cool

[novicius]

The Electric Indian is coming -- and it should have a six-speed gearbox and liquid cooling (if not also chain drive but maybe not).

Proper. :up:

[Godson]

I'm still sad that MotoCzysz didn't ever produce a real bike

[Crazed_Insanity]

Already old news! Check out li-o2!

http://news.mit.edu/2016/new-lithium-oxygen-battery-greatly-improves-energy-efficiency-longevity-0725

Yeah, EVs are here to stay.

This is another thing that might torpedo Tesla's efforts... imagine Elon invests a huge sum of money producing batteries in his gigafactory, and then all of a sudden they come up with a significantly better battery tech...

But of course all of these are just 'promising' future tech that may take a while to come to market...

Maybe I'm just being too skeptical after seeing what GM did to their EV1 back in the days...

It's just that you keep on hearing car manufacturers whining about losing money on every EV sold... with all of these tax credits, they're still not selling that many 500e, Leafs, Bolts... I just can't foresee sale increases without tax credits. Market forces alone probably won't be sufficient to ensure EV's survival. We also need to count on companies and governments' desire to go green. Now, that's always iffy.

[thesameguy]

This is still an industry in its infancy. Electric cars went from the idiotic CitiCar to the pipe-dream T-Zero to actual, functional electric cars like the Leaf in 40 years with very few people actually working on the technology. Now we have not only an entire industry looking at it, but also bazillions of electronic doodads all over the place fuelling research. Judging it at this point is probably jumping the gun.

GB and I just had this conversation (while looking at this: https://petersen.org/portfolio-item/1914-galt/) and it's my opinion that electricity is as close to a universal energy source that we have, and it's the closest thing to a clean energy source we have. You can't make gasoline from the sun and wind, and you can't power your ipod from gasoline. Electricity has the capability and we're good at using it - we just need to improve how we generate and store it... and these technologies are appearing in real time, right now. Just like the first batch of cars, EVs are only good for about 20% of the population right now. Give it a couple decades and everyone will have two. :)

[novicius]

Yep the future is absolutely electric. :up:

Battery tech, wireless charging, green power, those are all just details to be refined (heh).

[Crazed_Insanity]

No doubt electricity is the future, and I most certainly do hope this 'infant' will mature within our lifetime!

[Kchrpm]

Cross-posting in both the Bolt and Tesla threads, because of relevance to both.

http://jalopnik.com/chevrolets-tesla-killer-isnt-selling-very-quickly-1797023765


But here we are, with the Model 3 having nearly 400,000 preorders still hanging around waiting for a delivery and less than 8,000 already-available Bolts being bought in seven months.

Thus, the storyline continues: Tesla can’t make enough cars, whereas everybody else is just making too dang many—no matter how hard everybody else tries to compete.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Yeah, this is exactly the kind of thing that worries me.

Without Elon Musk's Tesla, there's no way the automotive industry will be producing EVs in the near future based on their own sales figures.

If Model 3 failed to live up to expectation and not really helping to generate profits after a few years, it'll probably be over for Tesla. No way could Elon hype up Model Y as the company's next money maker...

Best case scenario is Model 3 becomes a huge success and becomes the next iphone in the auto industry...
or just remains a small niche premium brand company still capable of generating enough profit to go on...
Worst case is that it goes belly up after realizing that there really aren't that many Model 3 customers and all those investments down the drain! BTW, did you guys know that mid-size sedans constitute only about 10% of the overall auto sales so far? Yeah, add up all the Camry and Accords and the likes... only 10% of the market share!!! Okay, including smaller sedans like Corolla and Civicsand the like... totaling 20% of the market. People are buying trucks and SUVs. Can Model3 really reverse this trend?

After Tesla hype ceases, based on automakers' own sales figures, I'm pretty sure we can kiss EVs goodbye.

I'm really anxious for Elon. Of course, I do want him to succeed.

[Godson]

When Ford was selling 750k + f150s a year....

I'm not even suprised the econoblob is only 10% of market value.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Anyway, I sure was surprised. I know they sell a lot of trucks and suv's in the US, but didn't realize it was that much!

This trend does not bode well for Model 3.

But hopefully Model 3 is a game changer that reverses this market trend.

[Kchrpm]

People are buying trucks and SUVs. Can Model3 really reverse this trend?
Perhaps the Y will be a smaller, simpler X.

[21Kid]

The Electric Indian is coming -- and it should have a six-speed gearbox and liquid cooling (if not also chain drive but maybe not).

Proper. :up:

Why does an electric motor need a multi-speed gearbox? :?

[Random]

Electric motors have torque curves, too, (and redlines) so a gearbox can help keep the drivetrain operating in its sweet spot.

[Kchrpm]

Lets you use a less powerful motor and keep it in the low rpm range, I presume.

Edit: Beaten by the smarter person!

[Freude am Fahren]

Yeah, the Rimac has a 2-speed dual clutch for the rear motors. So it's not just fast 0-60, but up to supercar speeds (200+mph). Front are single, so don't know if they cut out, or are just doing less work.

6 seems excessive for a bike though. 1 would be enough for a street bike that would rarely if ever see 100mph. Hell, I think the Mugen TT-Zero bike only has one.

Don't know a lot about electric motors, but maybe if you limit it to a lower RPM you can make it smaller/lighter?

[Kchrpm]

Yeah, it might be a very weak motor that only has 2000 rpm or so of effective torque. I'm sure there's a reason they're going with 6 gears, it's not a choice you make lightly, especially on a motorcycle where weight is far more important than in a car.

[Drachen596]

The Empluse previously sold by Victory had a 6 speed. Likely why he said that.

The Zero lineup has no gearbox.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Yeah, it really doesn't make sense to have trannies for EVs. Rimac is probably more of an exception rather than a rule. Weight of a strong motor without gearbox will most likely be lighter and simpler than a weak motor with gearbox.... a 6 speed for and EV would probably be overkill.

Back in the solar car racing days, our car has 2 speeds..., but we don't have any physical gearboxes..., we just 'shift' from connecting the batteries serially or 'parallelly', if that's a word... ;)

[thesameguy]

Pretty solid indicator about the future of EVs:

http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2017/07/mercedes-quits-dtm-to-race-electric-cars.html

[Yw-slayer]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/25/britain-to-ban-sale-of-all-diesel-and-petrol-cars-and-vans-from-2040

[thesameguy]

Oof. That hurts my heart, but I am not opposed to it.

[Crazed_Insanity]

When model S competes in NASCAR, then it's future is probably secured! ;)

Anyway, I'd rather see us near depleting super pricey fossil fuel which end up forcing us to electric..., rather than seeing govt banning it... Govt can direct/guide future tech but really shouldn't dictate... Imagine govt back then banning horses favoring horseless carriages? That step really shouldn't be needed or progress should just happen naturally.

So I suppose F-1 will become F-E by around 2040.

Also, GM is killing Volt, the best selling plugin/EV, I think only Model S surpassed its sales figure..., that's kinda scary. But hopefully it won't be a real kill, but exchanging it to CrossVolt SUV.

[balki]

Anyway, I'd rather see us near depleting super pricey fossil fuel which end up forcing us to electric..., rather than seeing govt banning it... .
this
I don't get why there wouldn't just be a sizable federal US gas tax (say almost $1/gallon, Obama may have been able to get something like this implemented before he left). Those billions will be used for infrastructure and encourages people to buy more efficient vehicles (like when oil was well over $100/bbl and the Prius was marked up like a Mustang Shelby GT350)
I'd rather buy an EV because it makes fiscal sense as opposed to anything with an ICE being illegal (it's not like jet fuel or diesel engines in trains and boats [maybe even trucks] will be banned in the next 50 years)

[novicius]

Unsequestering all of the carbon in the oil we have would be bad.

[Crazed_Insanity]

this
I don't get why there wouldn't just be a sizable federal US gas tax (say almost $1/gallon, Obama may have been able to get something like this implemented before he left). Those billions will be used for infrastructure and encourages people to buy more efficient vehicles (like when oil was well over $100/bbl and the Prius was marked up like a Mustang Shelby GT350)
I'd rather buy an EV because it makes fiscal sense as opposed to anything with an ICE being illegal (it's not like jet fuel or diesel engines in trains and boats [maybe even trucks] will be banned in the next 50 years)

Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing that... incrementally increase gas tax over the years and gradually phasing out EV tax credits... use the fund to pay the deficits or whatever. Point is to help consumers make the easy decision of buying EVs in 2040 rather than outright banning IC cars is probably the best approach.

We are carbon based lifeforms after all. No need to develop carbon-phobia so drastically. :p

[thesameguy]

Also this:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/shell-prepares-for-lower-forever-oil-prices/ar-AAoVbwb?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

[novicius]

The company now produces more gas than oil, is building a massive wind farm off the Dutch coast and has plans to spend up to $1 billion a year on building its presence in new energy sources such as renewables by the end of the decade.
:up: :up:

I'm surprised they're not also getting into the premium charging infrastructure game. I mean sure it's pennies on the dollar but there's gotta be gov't kickbacks, incentives & subsidies to take advantage of for installing a parking lot full of Shell-branded recharging stations in the curbs of each parking space.

[Drachen596]

Shell is a pretty big corporation. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a subsidiary doing that or planning to.

[balki]

Weren't a few of the biggest energy companies making over a billion in profit per month prior to the great recession?
Sounds like they'll survive either way, but the small counties that still have petrol as their main source of income will be in big trouble

[samoht]

Tesla Model 3 looks good, seems inexpensive. A 220-mile or 310-mile Tesla makes the 110-mile Nissan Leaf look a bit lame.
If they can turn them out in the required numbers at the prices they've quoted, it feels like the future will arrive early next year.

[balki]

The base 220mi range 3 for $35k looks like a big winner for an EV, an extra $9k for another 90mi range is what's scary (buys about 100k miles worth of fuel for a purely ICE sedan).

It'll be the hot car for 2017 and 2018, but once years of pent up demand is met I don't see Tesla selling 500k model 3s a year in the 2020s.

I find it is that the drivetrain, interior, sales model, ... are revolutionary yet they go with a sedan that's been losing favor for most of the last two decades. Is the 3 a platform that can easily be changed to a large hatch, CUV, small SUV?

[Godson]

I'm willing to bet that's what the y-series is going to be.

[Freude am Fahren]

I'm wondering if the price of the extended range version is actually subsidizing the lower model, in order to get it that low, and their costs are actually much closer.

The options are pricey, and I'm sure most models will be sold in the high-40's, but that's still like half a Model S, so it's a huge step.

And the better it does, the quicker we see improvement in tech and price.

[samoht]

It'll be the hot car for 2017 and 2018, but once years of pent up demand is met I don't see Tesla selling 500k model 3s a year in the 2020s.


If it was the tenth-best selling car in both the US and the EU, that would equate to a bit over 250K sales each side of the Pond. So that's the sort of sales position it would imply.

It's sort of maybe-reasonable - the Focus is 10th best selling in the EU, and starts at £20k. The Model 3 is £30k, but there's still a govt subsidy I believe that takes it down to maybe £25k, and you'll save on fuel. So in terms of monthly payment + monthly fuel costs it could be pretty competitive. I think 200 miles is a sort of watershed, once you reach that sort of range most people will stop worrying too much about range.

[Fogelhund]

We are still talking about a company that has no experience, in building, or delivering cars in this volume. There will be hiccups along the way, but we shall see how they are handled.

[novicius]

Tesla Model 3 looks good, seems inexpensive. A 220-mile or 310-mile Tesla makes the 110-mile Nissan Leaf look a bit lame.
Yeah but a lightly used Nissan Leaf is basically a sub-$10K USD (https://www.carfax.com/Used-Nissan-Leaf_w536)electric car. ;)

[thesameguy]

A 500e goes for about that much too. Locally, a CPO electric Focus isn't much more (when they have them). It'll be interesting to see what the Bolt looks like.

[Godson]

Yes, but you guys forget.

Tesla is the new iPod/iPhone.


The *in* people want them.

[thesameguy]

So true. So very, very true.

I am really excited about the inevitable Bolt vs. 3 comparison tests. Should be exciting.

[Godson]

So true. So very, very true.

I am really excited about the inevitable Bolt vs. 3 comparison tests. Should be exciting.

Yeah. Except I suspect the bolt is better now and initially. But the 3 will still be the hot ticket.

Because of the apple phenomenon

[thesameguy]

Could be. But bear in mind it's not like Apple made a bad product. They created an interesting and accessible system that Nokia and Microsoft (basically) did not. The iPhone is at least an average product, and may be a good one, backed by a company that takes good care of its customers. A tiny car company's ability to compete with even one of the global players' lines is ambitious, and people in that middle-rung car demographic won't put up with not getting to work. If the Bolt isn't functionally inferior, it has a chance... so I'm really interested to see what Tesla can offer with the 3. It'll be exciting to see an upstart play in a very competitive space against an industrial juggernaut. That is not something we get to see much anymore!

[novicius]

2nd gen Nissan Leaf is coming soon, too.

[Crazed_Insanity]

No car company has been able to profit off of their EVs so far even with all those tax credit incentives, including Tesla. This is worrisome trend.

However, no car company is able to match Model 3's performances and hype and dependence on a 3rd company for their batteries... So Tesla does have this much going for them.

Sincerely hope Elon Succeeds. Fingers crossed.

[Freude am Fahren]

So, this has me thinking about Rimac. I know they are about making some crazy hyper car, and supplying to hypercars, but they have arguably one of the best products out there in their tech, and they are in Europe, which would probably be much more inviting to eCars. If they had the money Elon does, I think they could be a better Tesla in Europe.

[Kchrpm]

I think Rimac is far more interested in selling tech to large corporations than selling cars. They only make the cars that they do as showcases for their tech, FWIU (watched the interview with Rimac+Hammond after the hill climb crash).

[Kchrpm]

Bolt thread? Tesla thread? Too early to tell?

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/08/02/bp-electric-carmakers-chargers/


BP is in talks with electric vehicle makers on partnering to offer battery re-charging docks at its global network of fuel service stations as it seeks to benefit from the move away from diesel and petrol cars, Chief Executive Bob Dudley told Reuters on Tuesday.

[thesameguy]

I would have to assume they'd be DC Fast Charge.... ?

I believe, electrically, it would be easier to offer SAE+Tesla than any combination with Chademo, so it seems likely the offering would work for either Bolt or Tesla.

I wonder what the 2nd gen Leaf will have? Still Chademo?

[Godson]

It's happening.

[thesameguy]

Pretty sure the trees aren't trying to kill us. Yet.

[Dicknose]

Trees do kill quiet a few people, falling on people.

[Godson]

That movie was fucking terrible.

[dodint]

Tesla sales will be great because iPhone sales are great is a weird argument.
Poor people love iPhones and the barrier to entry is considerably lower than any new automobile.

[Godson]

I'd agree to a point. The background reasoning still stands. Albeit the price is much higher. It is literally the IN thing. And according to kbb


The estimated average transaction price of a new car or truck sold in the U.S. in April was $33,560 — 2.6% higher than in the month a year ago, according to data from auto researcher Kelley Blue Book.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Transaction price of Model 3 will probably be significantly higher than the average of $34k when you start to add on options and sales tax and when the tax credits run out..., plus it's just not an SUV that 80% of the buyers want...

Starbucks latte and Iphone are awesome pricey items for swindling poor folks, it'll certainly be a bit harder to get a lot of poor folks to afford Model 3. Sure, more subprime 10 year loans with high interest rates may initially move cars, but surely the bubble cannot last.

Anyway, I hate to be critical of Tesla because I really want it to succeed. It's just that based on existing trends, odds are stacked high against Tesla. But given Musk's track record, if anyone can beat those odds, it'd be him. Fingers crossed.

[Kchrpm]

Musk this week announced that the Model Y would a small crossover based on the Model 3. No production estimate was given AFAIK, he was only saying that because I guess previously Y was going to be something else.

[Yw-slayer]

I'm game to see Model 3s and Ys on the road. They'll both make great Uber cars.

[Crazed_Insanity]

When we do fully become autonomous... will people actually stop purchasing vehicles? I wonder what would that do to Model3's overall sales numbers... Will private customers buy more cars or will the future uber companies end up buying more cars? Or maybe it'll make no difference because uber will simply be using your privately owned model3 to profit off of... ;)

[thesameguy]

People might. Lots and lots of interest in vehicles as a service right now. Ford is experimenting with their Canvas division; if Ford is checking it out, it's clearly square on the radar.

[MR2 Fan]

People might. Lots and lots of interest in vehicles as a service right now. Ford is experimenting with their Canvas division; if Ford is checking it out, it's clearly square on the radar.

and them dang millennials hate driving and just uber everywhere (according to some "experts")

[thesameguy]

Man, I uber (actually, Lyft, fuck uber) everywhere. If I think there is going to be a parking hassle, or booze, or whatever, I use Lyft. I love it. I'll drive when I get to drive, but if it's a commute or whatever I let someone else take the wheel. And the frustration!

[Yw-slayer]

I'll drive when I get to drive, but if it's a commute or whatever I let someone else take the wheel. And the frustration!

100% agree, particularly when city driving is involved.

[21Kid]

Probably cheaper than parking in a lot of places too.

[Yw-slayer]

Yup, over here CBD parking is USD4-6/hr. Still not as expensive as CBD parking in Sydney or London, but still.

[Freude am Fahren]

Damn. Considering the price of every other aspect of driving I hear about in HK, that's a freaking bargain!

[Crazed_Insanity]

I wonder where will your self driving Model 3 go after it dropped you off of the office? Roam around in the streets of HK or drive home? Either way, I'm guessing traffic will probably get much worse than now?

Even if it's an uber/lyft owned Model 3, pretty sure the road will become more congested with unoccupied vehicles... hope these cars are smart enough to avoid congested areas... maybe even coordinate efforts with one another to yield to cars with passengers in it.

(Hope you're reading samoht!)

[KillerB]

Look, as much as I like the Bolt, the reality is that most of these cars are getting sold on the coasts, where Tesla is an aspirational brand. People who want one wouldn't be seen in a Chevrolet if their lives depended on it. I drive a Dodge and am certainly no badge snob, but while I'd recommend a Bolt for my parents, I would never choose it over the 3 for myself.

Whether Tesla can pull of this launch and build the 3 reliably remains to be seen, but if they can, they've got the image right. It's poised to be the electric equivalent to the BMW 3-Series - the default choice for the image-conscious without a ton of money but with a decent FICO score.

The compact crossover version will be an even bigger hit, IMO.

[Dicknose]

I wonder where will your self driving Model 3 go after it dropped you off of the office? Roam around in the streets of HK or drive home? Either way, I'm guessing traffic will probably get much worse than now?

Even if it's an uber/lyft owned Model 3, pretty sure the road will become more congested with unoccupied vehicles... hope these cars are smart enough to avoid congested areas... maybe even coordinate efforts with one another to yield to cars with passengers in it.

Combo of things...
Congestion charges might help, empty cars might get a larger charge.
That would also mean they need somewhere to go. Change in parking structures, a little bit remote (not prime cbd) but also the parking density should be much higher. Could also have short term (less than hour) parking that as much about smoothing traffic density.
I think cars will also get smaller. More two seaters, especially in an uber/taxi style. Less people owning their own car, more people using cheap autonomous vehicles, don't need to buy a car that fits the whole family. Smaller means less traffic! Halve the vehicle length, big decrease in the space taken up by the same "volume" of traffic.
Similarly I could see bus routes swapping large buses for smaller ones, running more often. One of the big costs for that now is the drivers, they cost more than the fuel. Get rid of that cost and it might make more sense to have 10 seater vehicles, more of them and a more "on demand" scheduling.

I think that there will be some big shifts in how we use vehicles, both private, public and shared.
Some of these will need new infrastructure (parking, loading zones) to make best value out of it. But these will happen.

Probably 20 years away from seeing these changes, need to get enough vehicles out there.
But there are already some hints that these can happen e.g. I see lots of suburbs with parking spots that are only for ride share cars. Not hard to imagine that places will soon introduce parking for autonomous vehicles, maybe side by side without space to open doors.