Help search for MH370

[Sad, little man]

Seriously, have at it...

http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014

Kind of sad knowing that some relatives of the passengers have probably driven themselves crazy with that thing though. :|

[Sad, little man]

Hmmm, actually, looks like they may not be taking into account the newest developments that place it far away from that area. :|

[MR2 Fan]

I tried using that site several days ago but it seemed very cumbersome...I wish Google maps or a similar program had updated maps of the area.

The thousands of theories being presented on the web are crazy....I wonder if we'll hear something truly useful soon, or if the "story" will just fade away in the news

[Godson]

What's the synopsis so far on the plane's disappearance?

[Drachen596]

supposedly it flew for a few hours after disappearing.

but why and to where?

could be a LONG way from where it disappeared. that model has a fully loaded range of 7,725nm(8,892 miles)

[IMOA]

Basically it's either in the water off the western coast of Australia or sitting on the ground in a country which ends in 'Stan' (or a near neighbour). There is a chance that once it landed they were able to disable the satellite coms, refuel and go somewhere else but I don't think so no-one seemed to know that ACARS kept pinging after it was turned off and whoever took it could've disabled it from inside the aircraft anyway.

Interesting update from today is the first waypoint of the diverted flight path was put in before ACARS was shut down which points the finger very firmly at one (or both) of the pilots.

[mk]

Acars and satcom are different.

Acars is like http and ftp when satcom is like tcp and udp.

Ping then is not even a protocol, only a blind send, and, if I'm understood it right, not even present anywhere in the cockpit, also revealing only its amplitude in the reciever, that can give a rough angle and nothing else.

Interesting thing is that only last ping is published.
IMO, no need to hide them if they point south.

[thesameguy]

That was broadly my understanding as well.

Quite the mystery.

[Yw-slayer]

There's an interesting article on WIRED.

[LHutton]

The protocol when a civilian airliner goes off course and fails to respond is to intercept it.

[Crazed_Insanity]

They've inadvertently exposed air defense holes. Nobody intercepted it... or perhaps nations around there just weren't anticipating anyone attacking them... ;)

BTW, that WIRED article is pretty cool. It could be that simple...

However, I still prefer the idea of them surviving on some remote Darma Initiative Island traveling thru time while fighting polar bears and smoke monsters.

[21Kid]

mk is here? And a coherent post at that?!?

[mk]

What if satcom ping is a hoax.

Authors are quite sure, for what ever reason, the plane is hijacked but can't tell its location.
They invent a ping that is so deep in system it needs a ninja engineer to spot it.
Bad guys start searching their man and all communications are analyzed.

E:
Didn't see the prev.

[thesameguy]

I like the WIRED article as well but there are still so many questions. I don't know shit about how airplanes are built, but it seems to me that any transponder system would be WELL isolated from the rest of the plane. How many giant planes have been totally lost in the history of aviation? Still, it's a good theory, because if you're going to hijack a plane and you know how to disable its transponder, you don't make a major course correction - thus putting everyone on alert - and THEN cut the transponder. You just cut the transponder. You also don't make wild elevation changes and burn off expensive fuel and put stability at risk.

While I wouldn't rule out a hijacking attempt entirely, I think the movements of the plane definitely show the pilot was trying to mitigate some problem - maybe put out a fire, maybe send a signal to authorities, or maybe hoping to knock knife-wielding hijackers off balance. That really makes sense.

I'm also baffled at what the point of hijacking a giant plane out of Malaysia would be. I mean, what do you do with the thing once you have it? There are so many things that make that scenario unlikely - proximity to high value targets being one of them, but also successfully hiding something that big for very long especially if it was on approach to one of the aforementioned high value targets. ;) I'm pretty sure you can't even land a 777 just anywhere. Fuel consumption has gotta be obscene - there would have to be many much better choices if it was going to run cargo for some terrorist organization. There was no obvious person or thing of global value on board, either. Maybe some such organization or 3rd world entity wanted the engines for study or reproduction? Seems like there are better, less obvious ways to go about that.

Really, thinking about it, the only plausible theory I can come up with is that some trailer park kid played too much GTA. I mean, what else is there?

[LHutton]

They've inadvertently exposed air defense holes. Nobody intercepted it... or perhaps nations around there just weren't anticipating anyone attacking them... ;)

BTW, that WIRED article is pretty cool. It could be that simple...

However, I still prefer the idea of them surviving on some remote Darma Initiative Island traveling thru time while fighting polar bears and smoke monsters.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/thailand-radar-data-10-days-plane-lost-22952689

[Dicknose]

The protocol when a civilian airliner goes off course and fails to respond is to intercept it.

Who's protocol?
Malaysia, Thailand?

How do you know it's off course if you can't track it on radar?
If it's the transponder going off, then by the time someone notices, it's changed course and how do you find it to intercept.

Thai military says they saw it on radar but ignored it as it wasn't a threat.

[speedpimp]

The WIRED article in question. (http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/)

[George]

^ That is a reasonable and simple explanation.

[speedpimp]

Yes it is.

[The359]

I'd say the problem with a hijacking is that someone would have claimed it by now. And it certainly didn't land anywhere, I'm sure we've used satellites to check every airport within range of the airliner by now.

[Freude am Fahren]

I still think hijacking gone wrong is most likely case. Either they failed, they meant to just crash it, or passengers tried to take it back, resulting in a crash (Flight 93 scenario).

[MR2 Fan]

I'd say the problem with a hijacking is that someone would have claimed it by now. And it certainly didn't land anywhere, I'm sure we've used satellites to check every airport within range of the airliner by now.

The lockerbie bombing wasn't claimed for years after it happened

[Drachen596]

Airports have hangars.

If they had other plans for the plane they surr wouldnt be claiming the hijacking. Claiming it would give the various governments a clear group and likely area to target in the search for the plane.

how long did that Airbus from a few years back go before it was found? Think it was an Air France flight near South America.

[The359]

Airports have hangars.

If they had other plans for the plane they surr wouldnt be claiming the hijacking. Claiming it would give the various governments a clear group and likely area to target in the search for the plane.

how long did that Airbus from a few years back go before it was found? Think it was an Air France flight near South America.

Airports with hangers tend to have people around them. If you're going to steal a large jet and hide it, you have to go somewhere secluded, with a big enough hanger to fit said jet. Of which I'm guessing there are not a lot around the -stan countries.

[Random]

Debris and bodies :( from Air France 447 were found relatively quickly (a day or two later). The remainder of the wreck with the data recorders took almost two years--not continuous effort, though.

[Phil_SS]

how long did that Airbus from a few years back go before it was found? Think it was an Air France flight near South America.

They found debris and bodies by the fifth day. Took them two years to find an recover the black boxes because the main body of the plane was about 12000ft below the surface.

[Yw-slayer]

Hemlock (www.biglychee.com) asked a pertinent rhetorical question:


The mystery here is how Malaysia, a reasonably open and relaxed nation of above-average wealth and development and with no serious enemies, ends up relating to the outside world as untrustworthy and apparently suffering some form of crippling inferiority complex.

Of course, I don't necessarily agree with the answer, nor the assumption that it appears "untrustworthy". I think any such image is due to pandering to the media by the governments of other relevant countries, who when faced with the exact opposite situation would almost certainly act in an even less transparent and "untrustworthy" manner.

[Rob]

Probably just simple racism. "How can you tell them apart from North Koreans?"

Which is a sentence I have actually heard from our office racist when talking about people from South Korea.

[Crazed_Insanity]

^ That is a reasonable and simple explanation.

That wired mag article certainly is the most believable of all theories... and it's good to see things from an experienced pilot's point of view.

It's just that I don't know how reliable that piece of info regarding plane made the course change before or after the radio communication saying 'good night.' If it's really said after the course change, then this particular theory is wrong. If it's said before the course change, then yeah, this is most likely what happened.

Anyway, really hope we can figure this out soon.

[Yw-slayer]

Rob, not sure I totally understand , but if you mean certain other countries being racist , then yeah.

[Crazed_Insanity]

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/03/18/article-2583807-1C655E2800000578-43_634x399.jpg

Some college student from Taiwan found something weird on sat images..., but there were no coordinates on the photos so still couldn't pin point the exact location yet...

I guess this could just happen to be a plane flying over a forest? Why would a plane just be sitting in the middle of a jungle?

[Freude am Fahren]

Appears to have the wrong livery. It looks like it has a dark colored aft section that goes all the way around the top.

Something like Jet Airways:
http://www.airlinereporter.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/jetairways.jpg

Also, doesn't look like a 777 to me, but from such a low res image, that'd be hard to say. A 777-200 would appear to have the wings more foreward, and you *should* be able to see the huge engine nacelles, unless they are too dark (MH370's would be gray I think).

[Random]

What sites have week-old satellite images available for browsing?

[Crazed_Insanity]

That same tomnod site posted originally by slm!

[Sad, little man]

They might have found something... Way too early to tell though.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-19/australia-may-have-found-objects-linked-to-missing-mh370-flight

[Yw-slayer]

That earlier image is clearly just a plane flying over a forest.

[Rare White Ape]

They might have found something... Way too early to tell though.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-19/australia-may-have-found-objects-linked-to-missing-mh370-flight

Cue Tony Abbot rubbing his hands together. Hooray, 15 minutes in the world spotlight!

[MR2 Fan]

The area they're talking about is pretty damn far south...not sure if debris would float a long way in that much time though?

[Rare White Ape]

Nah it's based on flight time with that fuel load and going straight until it stops with lots of screaming and a big splash. They imagine it might have flown that far with nobody to fly it.

[Yw-slayer]

That fits the simple theory published in WIRED.

[LHutton]

Who's protocol?
Malaysia, Thailand?

How do you know it's off course if you can't track it on radar?
If it's the transponder going off, then by the time someone notices, it's changed course and how do you find it to intercept.
How do you track something with the RCS of a flying barn? Very easily.



Thai military says they saw it on radar but ignored it as it wasn't a threat.
Very bold conclusion to jump to following 9/11. Note that intercept does not mean 'shoot down', it means go see what's up. It's completely standard protocol for most nations now:

from Canada
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/07/16/norad-jets-intercept-toronto-bound-airliner/

to India
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8225639.stm

I will give you that it 'might' not be for Malaysia and Thailand but that would be surprising. In fact it's the most surprising part of this for me.

[Crazed_Insanity]

Maybe Thai air force is just slow..., by the time they're ready to launch, the blip on the radar is gone or out of their air space.

[Sad, little man]

That's not as bad as Switzerland, which is apparently only able to defend their airspace during normal business hours. :lol:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/18/the_swiss_air_force_will_only_repel_invasions_duri ng_office_hours.html

[Crazed_Insanity]

Well, they can afford to do that because they are holding all the rich and powerful's money "hostage"! Probably even the terrorists have their money there too. When there's another world war, I bet Swiss military can still enjoy nights and weekends off. ;)

[Dicknose]

So you are saying someone did scramble a fighter, found the plane, but are somehow in on the conspiracy.

The Thai radar report days later makes me think they don't have the ability to "identify" a threat. Sure a blip might be detected, but realising it's a threat is harder. Have a human involved and it's complicated by lots of factors. Boredom, fear. What if I report this and the send up a fighter and I was wrong, will I lose my job?

And unless the aircraft is flying towards you, can you even intercept it?
If it's just crossing the edge of your territory you probably won't have any possible intercept in your airspace.
How fast are your fighters? How quick was it detected and a decision made to intercept (at 2am!)
Oh Malaysia has Mig29 but parts seem to be a problem, only 10 operational.
Would this be the first incident for them requiring an intercept? Do their procedures work?

Even if it is protocol, I'm not sure how practical it is for international flights in that region.
It seems the plane didn't fly towards/over any major cities/airports with radar (or they would have noticed)
Not hard to imagine military wouldn't care unless it's coming at you.

[Rob]

Electrical fire, reroute, failed to make the runway. The Wired article is by far the most rational and least paranoid explanation.

[Freude am Fahren]

So was the report of two guys getting on the plane using stolen passports wrong? Or are we just kinda ignoring it?

[The359]

Were ignoring it because they used normal passports to get into Malaysia in the first place. Everyone thinks they were seeking asylum.

[FaultyMario]

That'd kinda suck, no?

Boards plane to save life.
Plane crashes.

[Fogelhund]

Electrical fire, reroute, failed to make the runway. The Wired article is by far the most rational and least paranoid explanation.

Of course it is... but that doesn't make it reality.

[Dicknose]

Boards plane to save life.
Plane crashes.
Boards aeroplane to try to get to another country where you might get a job.

I don't think they were afraid for their lives in Malaysia.

Still sucks.

[Rare White Ape]

Of course it is... but that doesn't make it reality.

I think Occam's Razor is what should be applied until we have a better explanation.

So far the Wired piece is the most rational and logical.

[Dicknose]

And when it costs money to search, you want to go with "most likely"

[thesameguy]

That'd kinda suck, no?

Boards plane to save life.
Plane crashes.

IIRC, that's ironic.

[Rare White Ape]

And when it costs money to search, you want to go with "most likely"

That's ok, Malaysia will foot the bill. Or some unfortunate insurance company will.

The cost would be even higher if there was a chance of survivors and time was an issue.

[LHutton]

So you are saying someone did scramble a fighter, found the plane, but are somehow in on the conspiracy.

The Thai radar report days later makes me think they don't have the ability to "identify" a threat. Sure a blip might be detected, but realising it's a threat is harder. Have a human involved and it's complicated by lots of factors. Boredom, fear. What if I report this and the send up a fighter and I was wrong, will I lose my job?

And unless the aircraft is flying towards you, can you even intercept it?
If it's just crossing the edge of your territory you probably won't have any possible intercept in your airspace.
How fast are your fighters? How quick was it detected and a decision made to intercept (at 2am!)
Oh Malaysia has Mig29 but parts seem to be a problem, only 10 operational.
Would this be the first incident for them requiring an intercept? Do their procedures work?

Even if it is protocol, I'm not sure how practical it is for international flights in that region.
It seems the plane didn't fly towards/over any major cities/airports with radar (or they would have noticed)
Not hard to imagine military wouldn't care unless it's coming at you.
Neighbouring countries would be aware of all civilian air traffic, any diversion from route would lead to a communication with pilot, a comms failure would then lead to an intercept. I'm not saying this definitely happened but I'm surprised if it didn't.

There's also a lot of talk among pilots that it really isn't that easy for all communications and transponder to be taken out by a fire in the blink of an eye before the pilot becomes aware and before they can get off a single announcement to ground control. How likely is an electrical fire on a civilian airliner anyway? I know the Dreamliner had battery issues but it's honestly rare aside from that. Even supposing there is an overload or short, the protection should have mitigated it before it caused a fire. This is even the case on electrical systems for temporary buildings nevermind an airliner, which has umpteen layers more rigour behind the design and testing and a very good maintenance regime. Whilst the explanation is less sensationalist and therefore seems more logical, it really isn't.

[Rob]

I think Occam's Razor is what should be applied until we have a better explanation.

So far the Wired piece is the most rational and logical.

BUT TERRISM

[Rare White Ape]

BUTT TERRISM

[LHutton]

BUTT TERRISM
I'm not even going to ask for a definition of that.:lol:

I reckon Boeing must hope that this is terrorism. The last thing their stocks need is another fire.

[Sad, little man]

Erm, what? Boeing's stock is up 41% from a year ago, and 276% from five years ago. I think they're doing just fine. Besides, the 777 has an excellent safety record, and most of the focus is now on the safety and viability of the 787 anyway.

[LHutton]

Erm, what? Boeing's stock is up 41% from a year ago, and 276% from five years ago. I think they're doing just fine. Besides, the 777 has an excellent safety record, and most of the focus is now on the safety and viability of the 787 anyway.
Stocks are fickle. After the 787 fires the last thing they need is an aircraft downed by an electrical fire.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/12/news/companies/boeing-dreamliner-fire/index.html

[FaultyMario]

Weren't the big airbus 'liners the ones suffering from fires?

[Freude am Fahren]

787 Lithiuum batteries had problems with fire, causing some (voluntary?) grounding shortly after launch. It also had some fuel leak issues.

AFAIK, the A380 has had no major fire issues. Just that one Qantas flight that lost an engine a few years ago.

[MR2 Fan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFuGfwIhv14

[Sad, little man]

Ahhhh! Get it out of my head!!! That show terrified me when I was a kid. I shouldn't have been allowed to watch it. Once they had an episode about alleged cases of humans spontaneously combusting, and I was sure it was going to happen to me.

[Drachen596]

Boeing can always blame Malaysia Airlines maintenance personnel.

Airbus had WAY more issues than a single engine failing on the A380s. something about cracks in the wings and a Singapore A380 was recently grounded by the airline after they found some scratches in the fuselage. i imagine they were deeper than the paint if they decided to ground the plane.

i still say the 787 issues were overcharging of the batteries causing the issues. you can see similar things happening occasionally with consumer electronics like cellphones and mp3 players.

[KillerB]

Save the B vs A arguments for airliners.net (god those folks are the pinnacle of tools) - whatever happened to this plane, it sure as shit wasn't an accident.

[LHutton]

Save the B vs A arguments for airliners.net (god those folks are the pinnacle of tools) - whatever happened to this plane, it sure as shit wasn't an accident.
That's my hunch too, so the B vs A argument is irrelevant, I only mentioned it on passing not expecting to unleash a shit-storm. Naive of me.

[mk]

Too big scam to be north?

[Sad, little man]

Yes... Yes it is.



Sounds like we might be getting closer... Maybe?

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-23/malaysia-jet-search-focuses-on-satellite-images-floating-debris

[mk]

If south then I don't understand concealings of other pings other than they'd point over Malyasia and Indonesia elsewhere but then current search area is too far.

[LHutton]

This is an interesting question.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-10/malaysia-air-crash-why-do-airlines-keep-black-box-flight-data-trapped-on-planes

Sending all the black box data is obviously way too expensive but some rudimentary critical data could be selected for transmission.

[Drachen596]

Gps location that you cant turn off with battery backup thats physically inaccessible while in flight.

Hell you could mount one of those SPOT emergency locators on the plane.

easier. Likely cheaper.

[LHutton]

That would at least allow you to locate the black box and find the rest of the data.

[Freude am Fahren]

Would sending all the data even be that expensive? Voice recordings, nav data, input data, aircraft status, etc. even on a 14 hour flight can't be much more than a typical F1 team sends across teh world during a race (probably a lot less, especially if you do much larger data intervals). Sure it wouldn't be cheap, but I can't imagine it would be unrealistic. (BTW, that article crashes my shitty work browser everytime I open it, if I'm way off, sorry)

[LHutton]

Would sending all the data even be that expensive? Voice recordings, nav data, input data, aircraft status, etc. even on a 14 hour flight can't be much more than a typical F1 team sends across teh world during a race (probably a lot less, especially if you do much larger data intervals). Sure it wouldn't be cheap, but I can't imagine it would be unrealistic. (BTW, that article crashes my shitty work browser everytime I open it, if I'm way off, sorry)
According to the link - $300m/year for a global airline in 2002, assuming a 50% reduction in future satellite transmission costs.

[Drachen596]

Internet vs satellite with the f1 vs airline.

Itd probably be a pain to not only send but require a big set of data storage places for them to send data back from every plane.

[Freude am Fahren]

Yeah, a bad comparison. I'm surpised it is that high though.

[Drachen596]

Fwiw calling a satellite phone from a landline is like 10 or 15 bucks a minute from the last time I remember seeing prices.

[Alan P]

Calling an Inmarsat phone on the Sky network here in the UK is very much in the 'pounds per minute' area. £15 or so connection fee and about £3-£6 per minute I think.

[GB]

http://www.cinematex.ro/posters/19/movie19168.jpg

[mk]

Calling an Inmarsat phone on the Sky network here in the UK is very much in the 'pounds per minute' area. £15 or so connection fee and about £3-£6 per minute I think.
And single channel is 2400baud.

But satellite is not nesessary needed.
Blackboxes them selves are not the problem.
Tail and wings already have stuff so placement of small instruments are trivial.
LW transmitter with a lifter of some sort, maybe a gass balloon, would be heard far, buoy is a good beacon for longer times and if lifter can keep the transmitter flying more than emergency positioning purposes it can send much in quite short time, compared to 2400baud.
Airbag stylish launch control shouldn't be a problem eighter.



About the lost one.
Local feed says some iranian engineers are questioned in Albania.

If state is involved...
Stuxnet revenge?

[mk]

It is found.

West from Perth.

[Freude am Fahren]

Don't forget many flights these days offer wifi. So they already have data transmitting in place.

[Freude am Fahren]

I'm not doubting it is there, or anything. But they haven't actually found it. They just know with enough certainty from the evidence that it's around there somewhere. I don't doubt they'll find hard evidence soon.

[mk]

Don't forget many flights these days offer wifi. So they already have data transmitting in place.
Yes, and in no time all cost arguments will become quite academic.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SwiftBroadband

Half-channel HDR 325 kbit/s

[mk]

I'm not doubting it is there, or anything. But they haven't actually found it. They just know with enough certainty from the evidence that it's around there somewhere. I don't doubt they'll find hard evidence soon.
Yes.
Any idea for info speed ups, F1 maybe.

Anyway.
Inmarsat guys have clearly done some calculations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10719304/How-British-satellite-company-Inmarsat-tracked-down-MH370.html

By comparing these models with the trajectory of other aircraft on similar routes, they were able to establish an "extraordinary matching" between Inmarsat's predicted path to the south and the readings from other planes on that route.

[Drachen596]

they're saying the plane crashed in the Indian Ocean and Malaysia Airlines TEXTED the families as such.

however the plane itself has not yet been physically found. personally until they do its still simply lost and not crashed imo.

[Rare White Ape]

The wording is important. There would be many legal reasons for declaring it this way.

And this method of saying its "lost-and-not-crashed" reminds me of the hunt for dark matter. We can't see it via direct means, but we know it's there. All the evidence so far says so.

Any other hypothesis counts for 0.01% for this declaration's 99.9%.

[Rob]

We can't see it via direct means, but we know it's there.

Well if that's not spinning in front of a mirror and repeating Billi's name, I don't know what is...

[Crazed_Insanity]

Yeah, I really don't understand why the airline had to make such a bold announcement at this stage... when everything is still kinda up in the air..., well, yeah, most likely that plane is no longer up in the air after 2 weeks, but how can you be so certain that all died when not even 1 body is found?

Not sure if it's really for legal reasons... the airline and the govt are probably just tired of it and just want to tell the families that yeah, they all died, it's over, please go home now? We have an F-1 race coming up you know?

Anyway, the way they handled the situation is just weird. It's not just Malaysia, Thailand too! Their AF radar picked up something, but didn't want to volunteer the info simply because nobody asked. WTF?

Really feel sorry for the family memebers left hanging in this suspense..., I dunno, maybe the airline is just being kind and doesn't want to give the family members any false hopes so might as well declare all passengers dead now.

[Rare White Ape]

Well, please consider these points then (all crazy speculation, in a giant thread full of expert guesses).

If they announce that they "have to assume that MH370 is lost in the Indian Ocean":

A. The search and rescue mission becomes a recovery mission, which allows the authorities to plan the operation in a way which is more suited to the task

B. The airline can begin the process of making their insurance claim...

C. ...and paying compensation to the victims

D. Resources won't be spread between a number of possible locations looking for a red herring

E. The number of aircraft, boats, and people required to operate them is reduced, thus saving valuable resources and man-hours, as well as reducing the risk for the people on the job

F. The next-of-kin are now allowed the ability to go on to the next phase of losing their loved ones. Grieving, memorial services, all that emo stuff

G. But if it turns out that the plane is not where they think it is, then great! They can look somewhere else

H. If it turns out that it didn't crash, and aliens/terrists/teh gummint stole it, and everyone is alive, then that's even better

[Crazed_Insanity]

If after the pay out and then family members found out that passengers are actually alive and well on an island or somewhere else, are they obligated to give the money back?

[FaultyMario]

That would depend on the laws of the country where the settlement took place.

[thesameguy]

And the language of the settlement agreement. But usually settlement agreements include clauses which prevent future actions arising from the same event, and I imagine that language would protect both parties - ie the victim can't ask for more if it turns out the airline knew the pilot was coked out of his mind and that's why the plane crashed, and the airline can't take money back if it turns out the plane crashed for some reason they pre-emptively disclaimed responsibility for (like an act of God or whatever)... or didn't crash at all. Settlements are always a tricky business.

[Yw-slayer]

Discussing hypothetical settlements on an internet forum FTW!!

[thesameguy]

Don't be sore you don't get to bill for this.

[Yw-slayer]

I'm not just sore. I'm BUTTHURT

[thesameguy]

Pay it forward.

[mk]

Where is interactive crash site prediction page?

[KillerB]

Do we even have GPS coverage in the Southern Ocean?

[Crazed_Insanity]

Fleet of GPS sat should give us global coverage. The military for sure would want global coverage...

Wow, did a quick google, I guess it isn't global! Looks like only half of the Indian oceans covered!

[Drachen596]

Stuff that had been spotted before has turned out to be fishing gear. Not plane bits.

[Dicknose]

Are you sure?
I thought it was designed for full coverage with 24 satellites. They are running more than that (spares!)

Not covering the Indian Ocean would also miss out other parts, since you can't put a satellite over a spot on the earth unless it's in the equator (and GPS is not geostationary)
So lack of coverage would imply a similar black spot somewhere else, most likely 180 degrees away.

[Crazed_Insanity]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/ConstellationGPS.gif
This is what I thought originally too. Surely it should have global coverage because we'd be able to have access of multiple sats anywhere on the globe!

But then I saw something like this:
http://www.liveviewgps.com/images/DataMap.jpg

So I'm not sure.

Perhaps the military is just not giving full access of their GPS satellites on purpose?

What's amazing is the the tips of south america and south africa are not covered!?!? Maybe that map is just not what I thought it is...

Okay, that map is for this product:
http://www.liveviewgps.com/worldwide+gps+satellite+tracker.html

Perhaps it can only transmit it's location inside the coverage area, but surely GPS receiver should give out coordinates of its location anywhere on the globe...

[mk]

Positioning != Tracking

[mk]

Now?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26902127

[Sad, little man]

It seems like a pretty amazing and legitimate development if it's true. It's weird though how the news sites seem to say "Well, we're not sure if it's actually the black box or not."

Well, if there's something underwater and it's putting out a 37.5kHz tone... What he hell else could it be!? Unless we've just discovered a species of fish that emits a 37.5kHz tone as part of a mating ritual, I'd say we've found the black box.

I guess ultimately they're questioning the validity of the whole report, but I would think that the people that are actively searching for it wouldn't create such a commotion unless they had truly found something noteworthy.

[Kchrpm]

It could be the black box from something else, or it could be some other device. There have been so many false positives so far, I think it's smart to wait until they have the bird in hand before making major conclusions.

[Sad, little man]

I really don't think there are any other black boxes down there. They only appear to be able to last about a month underwater until they go dead anyway.

I would hope that they chose a frequency that wasn't commonly used by anything else when they designed the black box locator. Indeed, there are probably very few things that emit a tone that high pitched. 37.5kHz is much higher than humans can even hear.

True, we've had false positives in the past, but you have to consider, all of those false positives have been visual sightings of things in the ocean. They ended up not being things from the plane, but rather other things. There are plenty of things in the world, so it's expected that we might see some things that aren't from a plane. But there are much fewer 37.5kHz noises in the world.

[Kchrpm]

Agreed on all points. Still think it's OK for them to be cautious about what they announce as definite.

[Sad, little man]

Makes you wonder what sort of signal that little bionic tortilla chip looking thingie actually outputs (the black box detector.) If it simply says "Hey, I heard something," then maybe there could be a false positive. But, if it's continually putting out everything it does hear, then hopefully whoever is listening is skilled enough to recognize what they are listening to and not falsely think they found something.

[Phil_SS]

There should be a recording of what was being picked up. If they really heard it then it should be easily played for the experts.

[Drachen596]

Over 1000 sonobuoys were just picked up by the Aussie Air Force here in Ft Wayne today to helped. Looked like it was a C17 they sent.

[Rare White Ape]

Yeah we have the C-17s. When they were first introduced the RAAF had an all-female crew piloting one of them.

It's said that they always had the mirrors adjusted wrong and they couldn't park it on the tarmac straight, but what would I know?

[mk]

Heh, GeoResonce.

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/debunked-exploration-company-georesonance-believes-it-may-have-found-mh370.3558/

[Dicknose]

A flap has washed up in Reunion Islands (in the Indian Ocean)
Could be from MH370 bit needs serial numbers to be checked.

Might not help with finding the rest of the plane if this has floated for that long.
But would point to a crash in the Indian Ocean.
Or feed more conspiracy theories!

[LHutton]

I'm honestly not sure where it washes up indicates anything.

[Sad, little man]

I hope they can at least ID it as being from the plane so that the families can have some kind of closure. I remember reading a news article just a few months ago where there were a few family members that still believed their loved ones were out there somewhere and ok... So sad.

[Rare White Ape]

It can indicate a surprisingly large amount.

It has barnacles on it. They can tell you the general direction it came from, as well as how long it took to get from there, based on the particular species and their age.

Match that up with recent data on oceanic currents and see where it takes you.

Forensics on aircraft parts in the ocean. It's a...

*puts on glasses*

...current topic.

http://images.zap2it.com/assets/p184820_n15256_cc_v4_aa/csi-miami.jpg

[G'day Mate]

:lol:

[LHutton]

The problem is, if the ocean was that predictable, where are the other parts?

[Crazed_Insanity]

If we can confirm that debris was from that plane, then I can confidently predict that other parts of the plane are most likely in the ocean! ;)

Anyway, yeah, having closure would be nice.

[Rare White Ape]

The problem is, if the ocean was that predictable, where are the other parts?

Nobody is asking where the parts are going. We want to know where that particular part came from.

You backtrack using existing data to narrow down a location. It's not prediction, it's joining the dots.

[Sad, little man]

I'm curious to see if things start washing up on the shores of Madagascar next. Who knows how much debris floated right past Reunion Island? Then again, how much of the plane really stayed afloat for this long?

I read a story that said a suitcase had also washed up on the island, but being that I only read that one place, it's probably best to take that with a huge boulder of salt.

[Freude am Fahren]

The problem is, if the ocean was that predictable, where are the other parts?


Nobody is asking where the parts are going. We want to know where that particular part came from.

You backtrack using existing data to narrow down a location. It's not prediction, it's joining the dots.

I get what he's saying though. If the currents were reliable enough to backtrack, you would think you would see a bunch of parts wash up in the same place. However, there are so many variables. First, if it broke up, where it broke up. At thousands of feet in the air, parts would be scattered miles by the time they started to drift. And if there was a large explosion, much of the plane may have incinerated. Second, Many parts may not even float, depends on how the plane broke up. If it was mostly intact, much of it could sink. Third, and this one is a guess, different parts with different buoyancies, weights, shapes, etc. would drift differently, if only slightly. But over months and thousands of miles, that could make a big difference.

[Godson]

It would still be something to work with. Right now we have zero. Work one step at a time, plan your next move, and a huge task like this is much smaller and easier to handle.

[Dicknose]

Backtracking is going to have huge error margins on a predicted start point.
It might be an estimate that is many thousand kms wide.

The main use would be, does backtracking agree with the current search area.
It probably will. But would be good in case there was some big mistake in predicting is in south east part of Indian Ocean.
Maybe even help narrow it.

[MR2 Fan]

Basically all we know at this point is what we knew before...the plane crashed in the water. Beyond that, we don't know much yet, until they find more parts, but at least they have a new starting point to go from.

[Sad, little man]

I would contend that we are much more certain it went down in the ocean now than we ever have been before.

[MR2 Fan]

I would contend that we are much more certain it went down in the ocean now than we ever have been before.

versus being taken by a UFO

[Kchrpm]

Or hijacked by terrorists and landed at a secret base to be repainted as Oceanic 815.

[mk]

Reunion stuff indicated that landing zone is more north and perhaps east.

More Inmarsat logs would be nice.

[FaultyMario]

Not MH370, but a horrifying tale from an Avianca pilot describing how LaMia 2933 went down. Avianca were approaching Medellin ahead of LMI and they heard everything.

https://youtu.be/ohgkE2Po6sE

Make sure to set CC to autotranslate to English.

[dodint]

2933 went down simply because they chartered a route farther than was possible given the amount of fuel the airplane was capable of holding. A very simple calculation. Just stunning negligence, really.