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Thread: Fantasy F1 2021

  1. #11
    Ask me about my bottom br FaultyMario's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by balki View Post
    Maybe make some of the mid-pack 0.5-1.0 higher? I think the cost ratio looks good for them most part, just too low. Basically could see a lot of people trying to pick team suck (i.e.; everyone but Stroll and the top two teams comes out to 40).
    Mathematically speaking, Bottas and Verstappen can finish 1-2 at every single race and still lose to Team Suck if Hamilton or Perez have reliability problems.
    I agree that most drivers are off by half a mill.

    The problem comes down to calculating in 2 steps, first the team total, based on what betting sites say and then eyeballing the driver split from that total. Though, in my defense, I tried to be as objective as I could.


    FWIW, I think the Red Bull total is overvalued, but that's what bookies had them for.
    My spreadsheet was also putting out super high values for Williams, but I can't see either of their cars scoring more than 8 points this season, so I had to exclude them from the calculations.
    The Haas, well since I was allowed to do the maths, I figured I was allowed to indulge in slamming the driver I hate the most, So it seemed only fair I gave his teammate the same value. :meh:

    The one driver who I think came out massively undervalued was Alonso, He should be a great points getter, not only because he can individually perform well, but I think he can single-handedly make his team perform better.
    acket.

  2. #12
    Ask me about my bottom br FaultyMario's Avatar
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    The reserve drivers I added for shits and giggles. However, a 23-event calendar during a pandemic should provide enough opportunities for acts of god.

    Albon, in case of emergency, should go drive for points-scoring teams that he is familiar with, so he could very well be scoring. Hulk should be sought after by more than one team. And Russell, let's face it, has one foot inside any of the two Mercedes.

    The rest of them, who knows!


    It should be fun.
    Last edited by FaultyMario; March 20th, 2021 at 05:42 PM.
    acket.

  3. #13
    Severed Member JoeW's Avatar
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    Well shit I submitted too early in my excitement.

  4. #14
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    Mario, prices look good (Williams and Haas look to be bad, Red Bull a genuine threat to Mercedes), just that with 40M you could end up with a lot of folks picking 14 drivers with 13 of them being the same and having Latifi or a reserve driver being the difference (high chance of zero points being scored by the difference-maker).

    The gap to the mid-pack seems too great. Are the bookies' values based on likely hood to win the constructors? Because that would make sense, but it terms of scoring points it undervalues P3-P8

  5. #15
    Corvette Enthusiast Kchrpm's Avatar
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    To the people that submitted early: your teams are in but marked as early submissions. If you resubmit during the appropriate period, then I will reclassify them as normal submissions.

    If Mario decides, based on his discussion with balki or anything else, to adjust any driver costs before the submissions start, then make sure to adjust your teams accordingly.

  6. #16
    Junior Potato
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    Shhhhhh, Kch!

  7. #17
    Ask me about my bottom br FaultyMario's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by balki View Post
    The gap to the mid-pack seems too great. Are the bookies' values based on likely hood to win the constructors? Because that would make sense, but it terms of scoring points it undervalues P3-P8
    Teams 1-6 values are ok, It's 7-9 that they really don't care about. Although, they're pretty much in agreement as to T10.

    I worked my ass off in last year's spreadsheet, I had mastered the art of weighing past performance, punditry and betmakers' odds. Alas, I must have left the file in the work computer...
    acket.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kchrpm View Post
    To the people that submitted early: your teams are in but marked as early submissions. If you resubmit during the appropriate period, then I will reclassify them as normal submissions.
    So, are we going to be penalized with the 24 hours delay or not?

  9. #19
    Corvette Enthusiast Kchrpm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blerpa View Post
    So, are we going to be penalized with the 24 hours delay or not?
    As long as no one else picks your team, there's no penalty. If you want to be safe, just PM me again during the 24-hour period saying you want to keep your previous selection and I'll treat it as submitted correctly.
    Get that weak shit off my track

  10. #20
    Corvette Enthusiast Kchrpm's Avatar
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    Entrants received so far:

    • Blerpa
    • JoeW (early submission)
    • FaultyMario
    • Balki
    • Billi
    • Kchrpm (early submission)
    Get that weak shit off my track

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