View Poll Results: When will Mercedes win their next F1 Championship?

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  • This season, 2023

    2 28.57%
  • Next season, 2024

    2 28.57%
  • When Lewis turns 40, 2025

    1 14.29%
  • With the new engines in 2026

    0 0%
  • After 2026

    1 14.29%
  • Never

    1 14.29%
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Thread: Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 - how long a road back?

  1. #1
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    Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 - how long a road back?

    When Mercedes started struggling to generate downforce in 2021, it was considered a blip. No-one had expected the FIA floor cutbacks to affect level cars like the Mercedes more than raked ones like Red Bull, so it was a surprise to everyone. And Mercedes were still only denied victory when the Race Director made an error that got him the sack, they were very much in the fight.

    When it became clear that their first ground-effect car last year was bottom of the class for porpoising, more eyebrows were raised. Mercedes had clearly dropped the ball with the big rule change, to everyone's surprise. They'd actually seemed to sacrifice more in-season development than Red Bull in '21, but still messed up the new car. But it was considered understandable, the new rules were a huge change, perhaps not surprising that Adrian Newey (who started his career in ground-effect Indycar) had solved the unsimulatable bouncing that was (literally) hammering the Mercedes drivers. Surely with the Brackley team's record and strength in depth, now that the problem was clearly visible and understood, they would do what they do best - no blame teamwork, understand the problem deeply and come back next year with a competitive solution.

    However with Mercedes showing up once again with a poor car, looking fourth-best in the season opener, bigger questions have to be asked. To be fair, they have solved the bouncing problems, but they've chosen to persist with an overall concept which just seems not to have the potential of the Red Bull style designs.

    I really don't know what's gone wrong, obviously some high profile people have moved on but it's not obvious that one genius has quit as far as I know. It feels to me like their decision-making structure has gradually lost the ability to make big decisions effectively over the near-decade since they successfully introduced the winning V6 hybrid in 2014, but that didn't become apparent until now.

    The problem is that Red Bull and the others aren't standing still, so Mercedes need to fix their fundamental organisational problems and then out-develop Newey's lot in order to return to competitiveness, or wait for the winners to take a wrong turn of their own.

    Anyway, how long do you think it will take Mercedes to get back to their winning ways? Poll question refers to Mercedes winning either the Drivers or the Constructors championship.
    Last edited by samoht; March 15th, 2023 at 02:26 PM.

  2. #2
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    Difficult to estimate without knowing what's it really like inside that team.

    My main question is... how good is Toto really? Is he really that good or was he riding on Ross Brawn's coat tail?

    In the previous era, I think only Ross Brawn and Adrian Newey are typically involved whenever a team hits success. Newey is only good at aero. However, Ross is probably super good at getting the right people and offering them whatever they need to succeed. Even with limited resources, Brawn GP's success show how amazingly versatile Ross is.

    If Honda has sufficient patience, it'll probably be them rather than Mercedes becoming multi constructor champs. So if Ross Brawn were the one laying down the solid foundation for Mercedes success, then Mercedes is probably screwed now that the rules have changed and they no longer have the good foundation they had before as key folks were leaving left and right. So if Toto had been riding on a coattail, then Mercedes might end up like McLaren. Without that key figure, the team just won't be cohesive enough to make it back to the top. You can't ride on a coat tail forever.

    However, if Toto is really that good of a leader and we can attribute most of Mercedes success to him, then I think their turn around should be soon... because at least the 1st step of admitting that their ugly podless concept sucks will help them head toward the right direction. So in a year or two, there should be a turn around.

    Can't really say for sure Mercedes falling behind AM on the 1st race was real or just a fluke? If it's really true that AM can be consistently faster using the same Mercedes powertrain, then my guess would be that Toto is probably not a very good leader. They should know after a year of racing that their ugly podless design isn't giving them the advantage they thought they're going to extract.

    I guess I will be surprise to see Mercedes turning things around quickly. They'll either return to top form next season... or maybe never ever like McLaren.

  3. #3
    Corvette Enthusiast Kchrpm's Avatar
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    I think they're done and will never make a comeback to their previous winning ways.
    Get that weak shit off my track

  4. #4
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    Yeah, Mercedes is slipping like McLaren for sure...

    McLaren can continue to blame things on their lousy wind tunnel.

    Mercedes really has no excuse when AM used the same wind tunnel!

    Mercedes is slowly following the foot steps of McLaren. Can they reverse course and chase down RB?

    Like I said, my faith in Toto is about 50/50.

    I do like Mercedes' philosophy of not blaming anybody but focusing on problem solving.

    However, I wonder who's the main proponent of that ugly podless concept. If they really reached that design thru 'engineering', then obviously they need more help on engineering side. If that concept won out 'politically', maybe Toto was the one pushing for it? Since he now admits that he's a fool and will probably let the engineers do their problem solving freely, then maybe things can turn around.

    If past history is any indication, once a team got it right, it'll likely take a while for other teams the build things up enough to dethrone this dominant team.

  5. #5
    Hard to predict. I wouldn't count them out. This year is looking ominous with RB pace in particular. I wouldn't put it past Mercedes to be 2nd fastest later this year but that's still not Championship form.

    My thought has been that Mercedes had a big PU advantage in the early stages of the turbo hybrid era. I think they were so far ahead of the game they may have only unleashed as much advantage as they needed. When others looked to be catching up, Mercedes always seemed to have an answer. I think they were holding updates in the pipeline until needed, and continuing further updates behind the scenes. I can't prove this but the signs all seemed there to me.

    Now that others have caught up, particularly in the PU department (Honda & Ferrari), Mercedes no longer holds this distinct advantage, *and* they dropped the ball on the ground effect philosophy. Now they're the ones playing catch-up. RB seems to have this formula down pat. Without them, I'd give Mercedes better chances of being a winning team again soon.

  6. #6
    Junior Potato
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    Mercedes will only win in the next two years if they drop a couple of money bags on Adrian Newey’s 45° drafting table and entice him over to the silver side.

  7. #7
    Ask me about my bottom br FaultyMario's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rare White Ape View Post
    Mercedes will only win in the next two years if they drop a couple of money bags on Adrian Newey’s 45° drafting table and entice him over to the silver side.
    I thought he was a part-owner of Red Bull Racing. There are no incentives to join another team, it's either gardening or working, he got from Horner and Masteschitz what he had previously asked Frank and Patrick.
    acket.

  8. #8
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    Not that I think it will happen, but in my opinion Adrian Newey changing teams would be bigger news than any driver move. Interesting how one engineer can carry such weight.

  9. #9
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    Think we're seeing F2004 round 2 here. Man that RB is fast.

  10. #10
    Junior Potato
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    Quote Originally Posted by samoht View Post
    Not that I think it will happen, but in my opinion Adrian Newey changing teams would be bigger news than any driver move. Interesting how one engineer can carry such weight.
    His cars have won the majority of titles since 1992.

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